Corner Infield Shuffle Up: Joy of Matt Carpenter
The idea with Shuffle Up is simple: 5×5 value for rest of season. Today we do the corners (first base, third base), with the DHs mixed in (they don’t fit anywhere else).
What’s happened to this point is merely an audition. I didn’t rank anyone on the DL, or anyone in the minors. Everyone seems to be more optimistic on injury returnees and hot prospects (anytime you’re ready, A.J. Reed) than I am.
The prices are unscientific in nature, and players at the same price are considered even. I’m just looking for a way to show the pockets of value as I see them. I don’t look at old prices when I construct these — it’s all from scratch. I don’t even see the point of looking back there; live in the present, look to the future.
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I welcome your respectful disagreement. Obviously you will feel passionate about what you don’t agree with, that’s why we have a game. The discussion can be deep and illuminating if you want it to be.
And remember our golden rule— a player doesn’t gain value because you like him, nor does he lose value because you don’t like him.
Prices now, comments later Tuesday. I reserve the right to make changes in this list during the first 24 hours. Win the debate, win the rank. (Priority is given to those who don’t hide behind the cloak of anonymity; for best results, catch me on Twitter.)
If I missed someone, let me know: @scott_pianowski.
(Catchers get their own shuffle. That’s why Posey, Lucroy, Norris and the rest are not listed here.)
$31 Paul Goldschmidt
$31 Josh Donaldson
$30 Edwin Encarnacion
$30 Nolan Arenado
$29 Kris Bryant
$28 Anthony Rizzo
$28 Manny Machado
$27 Miguel Cabrera
$25 Matt Carpenter
$25 Chris Davis
$24 Wil Myers
$23 David Ortiz
$22 Kyle Seager
$22 Adrian Beltre
$22 Jose Abreu
$21 Joey Votto
$20 Eric Hosmer
There were whispers that Carpenter wouldn’t match last year’s breakthrough, but he’s actually been better. A strong walk rate is up, while his strikeouts are down. He’s among the leaders in line-drive rate again, and he’s leading the league in hard contact. He might be the smartest hitter in the game today.
Carpenter’s power spike last year, and into this year, represents a change in approach. His pull rate surged to 39.3 percent last year, and this year it’s 47.8 percent. He knows how to work the count in his favor, then sit on a pitch he can drive. I don’t care what his HR/FB rate was back in the earlier stages of his career, this is what improvement looks like. I’ll happily pay for his level of production the last year and a half.
Abreu owners can’t help but ponder: is there anything to the idea of a first half/second half player? I wouldn’t apply any logic to it universally, but perhaps it’s something we can consider when a player in a northern city gets off to a slow start.
Abreu’s best career month is July (.985 OPS), and overall he gets a 49-point spike after the All-Star break (albeit that gap is aided by the poor start to this year). Maybe this is something, maybe this is nothing. My man Gene McCaffrey likes Abreu as a buy-low, and that’s something.
$19 Evan Longoria
$19 Mark Trumbo
$18 Victor Martinez
$17 Daniel Murphy
$17 Freddie Freeman
$17 Jonathan Villar
$17 Eduardo Nunez
$17 Jake Lamb
$16 Brandon Belt
$16 Todd Frazier
$15 Kendrys Morales
$15 Carlos Santana
$15 Hanley Ramirez
$15 Danny Valencia
$15 Logan Forsythe
$14 Maikel Franco
$14 Anthony Rendon
$14 Albert Pujols
$14 Stephen Piscotty
Most of this year’s avoid list has worked out nicely, but Freeman is going to go down as one of the misses. I don’t regret avoiding someone who was dinged up entering the year, and the Atlanta lineup remains a joke, but Freeman’s nonetheless been his usual terrific self.
Freeman generally is dominant against right-handed pitching and passable against lefties — no embarrassment, to be sure — but this year, there’s no platoon gap. He’s actually been a monster against the southpaws in 2016 (.328/.403/.509), and that’s one way to identify the best hitters in the game, left-handed sticks who hang in against opposing lefties. Hang in there, Freddie, help is coming someday. Maybe the new park will be lovely.
There can’t be an immediate and isolated “a-ha!” moment when examining Villar’s .401 BABIP — we have to consider it against his established baseline, and consider the genesis of how it’s arrived this year. Like many speedsters, Villar gets more mileage out of his contact — a career .348 BABIP. So maybe there’s less pumpkin risk here than you might have thought.
Villar also has bumped his walks significantly this year, and he’s nudged his ground balls and line drives forward (and taken his hard-hit rate up 5.6 percent). I’m not pricing him at his current level of production (though some in the industry will), but I’m nonetheless a believer, at least for the balance of 2016.
If Lamb doesn’t mess up his foot last year, maybe his breakthrough wouldn’t be so screened. All this guy did in the minors is rake, and he’s been terrific in the desert this year.
The Snakes sometimes shield Lamb away from lefties (dumb for development, but it’s their team, not mine) and he’s been overmatched when asked to face them. But with a .314/.377/.655 slash against right-handers, why worry? It’s mostly a right-handed world.
Despite a healthy season and a presence in MLB’s best lineup, Hanley Ramirez has been just okay. His current line translates to a spot outside the Top 60 hitters in banked value. His ground-ball rate has been around 50 percent since joining the Red Sox, and he’s just a .266/.341/.386 stick against righties this year (his OPS jumps 329 points in the platoon advantage). Hanley Ramirez, boring veteran? That’s what it’s become in 2016.
$13 Mike Napoli
$12 Nick Castellanos
$11 C.J. Cron
$11 Danny Espinosa
$11 Justin Turner
$11 Justin Bour
$11 Matt Holliday
$11 Eugenio Suarez
$11 Jurickson Profar
$11 Prince Fielder
$10 Adrian Gonzalez
$10 Miguel Sano
$9 Brandon Moss
$9 Chris Carter
$8 Mark Reynolds
$7 Javier Baez
$7 Dae-Ho Lee
$7 Lonnie Chisenhall
$7 Cheslor Cuthbert
$7 Pedro Alvarez
$7 Yangervis Solarte
$7 *Matt Duffy
According to Baseball Reference, Lee’s two nicknames are Big Boy and Pig Tiger. I’d ask for some new nicknames. Lee would also like to ask for more playing time, as he’s been a short-side platoon player for most of the year. His limited MLB resume suggests he can hit both sides of the mound — .881 OPS versus the righties, .828 against the lefties. Very quietly, the Mariners offense is No. 7 in weighted on-base average — it’s not a monstrous offense, but it’s a good one. If Lee gets a full-time endorsement, bump him a few bucks.
$6 Jose Ramirez
$6 Marwin Gonzalez
$6 Wilmer Flores
$6 Martin Prado
$6 Adam Lind
$6 Josh Harrison
$6 Jung Ho Kang
$6 Jhonny Peralta
$6 Matt Adams
$5 Cesar Hernandez
$5 Brett Lawrie
$5 Ryan Rua
$5 Yasmany Tomas
$5 Travis Shaw
$5 A.J. Reed
$4 Logan Morrison
$4 David Freese
$4 Cody Asche
$4 Luis Valbuena
$4 Hyun Soo Kim
$4 Aaron Hill
$4 Jed Lowrie
$4 Joe Mauer
$4 Ryan Zimmerman
$4 Brock Holt
Kang’s pop is great, but keep in mind he’s hitting .250 and has a very modest stolen-base upside . . . If you have the freedom to use daily transactions with Rua, note he’s absolutely crushing left-handed pitching (.361/.437/.574) . . . Asche has given up some of his power in an attempt to carry a better batting average. Maybe he gave too much of the pop away. At least we can look at the K/BB ratio now without shielding our eyes . . . Shaw’s average dropped 39 points in May and he crash-landed to a .214/.277/.310 June. He’s obviously not likely to be defined by either of his extremes this year, April or June, but consider there was never a great minor-league pedigree with Shaw.
$3 Yonder Alonso
$3 Chase Headley
$3 Derek Dietrich
$3 Mark Teixeira
$2 James Loney
$2 Stephen Drew
$2 Ryan Flaherty
$2 Adam Rosales
$2 Tyler Saladino
$2 Mitch Moreland
$2 Eduardo Escobar
$2 Sean Rodriguez
$2 Steve Pearce
$1 Daniel Descalso
$1 Yunel Escobar
$1 Jefry Marte
$1 Howie Kendrick
$1 Adonis Garcia
$1 Conor Gillaspie
$1 Chase d’Arnaud
$1 Billy Butler
$1 Tommy Joseph
$1 Andres Blanco
$1 Juan Uribe
$1 Kelly Johnson
$1 Rob Refsnyder
$1 Mike Aviles
$1 Justin Smoak
$1 Chris Coghlan
-$927 Zack Hample
