Core Values: Hurricanes need more from expensive top players
In the salary cap era, where NHL teams have to be efficient with their money, it's important for each club to have a core group of players who set the foundation on which to build the rest of the team. This group often includes the players who consume the bulk of a team's cap space, while also providing the greatest on-ice impact.
With that in mind, Eye on Hockey introduces our summer series: "Core Values." We'll take the rest of summer to evaluate the group of five to seven players who make up the core of each team. Using criteria like point production, average age, how the players were acquired, total cost and cap hit, we'll detail which teams have the strongest cores and which need work. On top of that, we'll also gaze into the future to look at the players who could one day be part of this crucial group for each team.
After a fifth straight season without a playoff appearance, the Carolina Hurricanes' post-Stanley Cup years have been lean. One other playoff appearance for the club since that 2006 title is not exactly ideal for growing and maintaining a fully engaged fan base. As a result, the Canes have been mired in the lower third of the league when it comes to attendance.
The Canes appear to be in a state of malaise organizationally. They're not among the worst teams in the league, but also don't appear terribly close to stepping out of mediocrity. Perhaps changes at the top of the organization will start moving things forward.
Longtime GM Jim Rutherford was forced out of the everyday hockey decisions in favor of franchise legend and longtime front-office occupant Ron Francis. Rutherford ended up leaving the organization to become Pittsburgh Penguins general manager. Bill Peters, a former Detroit Red Wings assistant, replaced Kirk Muller behind the bench in Francis' first big decision in his new role.
The suits may have changed, but it's largely the same personnel on the ice from a season ago, give or take a few role players. The top of the roster actually looks pretty good. There's not a ton of depth, but the central core of the team can certainly provide a good enough foundation. The problem, however, is that the core is extremely expensive for the output the team got last season.
Where the Hurricanes may be lacking most, however, is in net. They'll start the year with Cam Ward and Anton Khudobin and it sounds like the team is ready to give Ward another chance to reclaim past glories. The shine on his brilliant playoff run in 2006 has long since faded. Khudobin, meanwhile, was really solid last season with a .926 save percentage. Hard as it may be, the team is going to have a decision in net and it's a really important one for the sake of their season. Khudobin has never been a primary starter, but perhaps he should be this season.
Carolina also will need resurgent seasons from Jordan Staal and Alexander Semin to make a bigger dent in the Metropolitan Division. Without that, plus some bigger contributions from younger players like top prospect Elias Lindholm, it could be a very long year.
Core Values: Carolina Hurricanes
Players (Age, term remaining on contract): C Eric Staal (29, 2 years), LW Jeff Skinner (22, 5 years), D Justin Faulk (22, 6 years), D Andrej Sekera (28, 1 year), C Jordan Staal (25, 9 years), RW Alexander Semin (30, 4 years)
Total cap hit for 2014-15: $34,558,333 (50 percent of salary cap consumed by six players)
Average age: 26
Total point production in 2013-14: 107 goals, 166 assists, 273 points (50.9 percent of team's total point production)
About the Core
Eric Staal: It's kind of interesting that a 61-point season can be considered a down year, but for Staal, it absolutely is. For the first time since his rookie season, Staal did not have a points-per-game average that exceeded 0.85. Granted, it was at a 0.77 last season, but he's also one of the highest-paid forwards in the NHL. The club needs Staal to deliver at a high level and last season was not enough relative to his career norms and contract. You can't pin Carolina's woes solely on the captain. There were a lot more problems that no one player could have fixed. However, with two years remaining on his contract and the franchise not exactly building toward a more competitive situation in the near term, could Staal be a trade chip? Once thought impossible, perhaps it's not anymore. That said, in all likelihood, Staal remains a Hurricane at least for the next two years. A lot of teams in contention would have a hard time fitting him underneath the cap without the Canes eating salary. For the most part, Staal has had a brilliant career. He has been a central figure for the team since he put up 100 points in his second season. Staal was the leading scorer with 28 points during the Stanley Cup run in 2006 as well. He is second behind Ron Francis in all of the major offensive categories in franchise history. He has 289 career goals and 688 points for the Hurricanes. If there's going to be any kind of resurgence in Carolina, Staal is the person to lead it. How he was acquired: 2003 NHL Entry Draft, first round, second overall
Jeff Skinner is one of the league's most dynamic young goal scorers. (USATSI)
Jeff Skinner: One of the continual bright spots for the Hurricanes organization over these past few seasons has been Skinner, when he's healthy. He burst onto the scene with 31 goals as an 18-year-old rookie in 2010-11 and since entering the league, he has been one of the most prolific scorers among his contemporaries. Skinner posted a career-high 33 goals last season, but is still chasing his career-best point total of 63 points accomplished as a rookie. At just 22 years old, Skinner has time and skill on his side. Among active players aged 18-22 over his first four seasons, the only player with more goals than Skinner's 97 is Steven Stamkos. When you consider that Skinner has also lost 35 games to injuries over the past three seasons, it's even more impressive. With five years remaining on his contract, Skinner has a chance to be part of the solution in Carolina, if they're able to continue building. Keeping the young sniper healthy over that span will be key as he can be a driving force in this team's offense for a long, long time. How he was acquired: 2010 NHL Entry Draft, first round, seventh overall
Justin Faulk: Becoming a top-pairing defenseman before 21 is pretty tough to accomplish, but that's what Faulk has grown into in a relatively quick time. Now 22, he'll remain a top-pairing force with Andrej Sekera and could see his minutes increase even further. Faulk had a career year in 2013-14 with 32 points, including 27 assists. He averaged 23:25 per game and also posted positive possession figures despite his heavy usage with a Corsi for percentage of 52 percent. The Hurricanes skipped the bridge deal that has been extremely popular in recent years and went long-term with Faulk. That will keep him at an affordable rate for the next six years during which he is likely to find his peak level of performance. Having accomplished a lot already, there's plenty left for Faulk to do at the NHL level. He's a solid building block for this franchise. How he was acquired: 2010 NHL Entry Draft, second round, 37th overall
Andrej Sekera: Perhaps if he played in a market with more national notoriety, Sekera's incredible 2013-14 campaign would have been heralded more. As Carolina's top defenseman last season, he finished with a career-best 44 points, with career highs of 11 goals and 33 assists, all while averaging 23:41 per game. Carolina really put him in a position to succeed offensively as well, giving Sekera the minutes and the role to allow his skills to fully flourish. Now he should be expecting a bigger payday from the club, which has yet to extend the 28-year-old blueliner. He has just one year remaining on his contract and even if he doesn't duplicate his 2013-14 production, he'll still bring a lot of value to this blue line that is skewing a bit older. Having a player who can move the puck as effectively as Sekera did last season, on top of steady defense, is a huge benefit to any team in the NHL today. How he was acquired: Traded from the Buffalo Sabres for a second-round draft pick on June 30, 2013
Alexander Semin: After shining in his first season with the Hurricanes in the lockout-shortened 2012-13 campaign, Semin's numbers took a step back in 2013-14. He dealt with injuries, including a bum wrist that could have impacted his goal total last season. It is unlikely Semin will ever regain the form that made him a 40-goal scorer, but making $7 million a year, he'll have to score more than 22. As the second-highest paid player on the team, much is expected of Semin and when healthy, he's definitely a threat. His 0.65 points per game last season represented his lowest production rate since his rookie season in 2003-04. It's more disappointing considering he was a point-per-game player the year before. There are still dynamic elements in Semin's game, but they'll have to translate to better numbers and soon. How he was acquired: Signed as an unrestricted free agent on July 26, 2012
Jordan Staal: Perhaps just part of the trend, Staal's production rate dropped considerably in 2013-14. Staal had 40 points and just 15 goals. His possession numbers remain strong as they have throughout his career, but given the long-term contract Staal is playing under, the Canes need him to be able to bring some production. His 0.49 points-per-game last season was the second-lowest mark of his career. Also, the one-time Selke Trophy finalist has seen his reputation as a strong defensive forward tail off a bit. There are still a lot of things Staal does well at both ends of the ice and at 25, there's going to be the chance to get back his scoring touch a bit and up his production rate. He still has nine years left on his current contract, so the sooner he gets things going, the better for all parties involved. How he was acquired: Traded from the Pittsburgh Penguins for Brandon Sutter, Brian Dumoulin and a first-round pick
Who's next in line
The Hurricanes will look for Elias Lindholm to take another step forward this year. (USATSI)
After jumping right into the NHL after his draft year, the transition hasn't always been easy for Elias Lindholm, but he'll be expected to take a step forward this season. The 19-year-old Swede put up 21 points in 58 games last season and showed signs of the potential that helped make him the fifth overall pick at the 2013 draft. He's a player the club is banking on over the long term as he could potentially give the team a better top-six center down the line. He'll remain an interesting young player, especially after getting a solid run at the NHL level last season.
Ryan Murphy is another young player the Hurricanes need to have turn a corner. A dynamic offensive talent in junior hockey, Murphy's production rate hasn't translated to the NHL level. Additionally, due to his style of play, he probably needs to be sheltered more until he has the confidence and strength to play a bigger role with the Hurricanes. He has 52 total NHL games under his belt, including 48 last season, during which he had 12 points. At 21, Murphy still has two years remaining on his entry-level contract, which is a huge positive. While he's learning on the job, he'll be cheap.
More established veterans that still have some relative youth on their side include Nathan Gerbe, Jiri Tlusty and Riley Nash. Gerbe had a resurgent season with 16 goals, while Tlusty underperformed after a breakout campaign in 2012-13. Nash provides solid depth as a lower-lineup player with a little offensive pop.
Though the defense is getting a bit older at the NHL level, the team certainly addressed that more in the draft by selecting excellent puck-mover Haydn Fleury. With size, mobility and some excellent distribution skills, Fleury could be making the jump to the big leagues sooner than later, but the Canes would be wise to give him at least another year in junior to marinate and not unnecessarily burn a year off his contract.
Also of note in the prospect pool are forwards Victor Rask, Brock McGinn, Sergei Tolchinsky and Phil Di Giuseppe. All have potential to fight for lineup spots in the next two to three years, while Michal Jordan, Danny Biega and Trevor Carrick all highlight the defensive prospects beyond Fleury.
Overview
The Hurricanes obviously have some pieces, expensive ones, but players who should be able to perform at a high level in the NHL. Getting more production out of the core forwards is a real key to getting things turned around in Carolina. It might not happen this season, but if it doesn't happen soon, things are going to have to change within the lineup and there are a lot of contracts that would be difficult to move.
As for the season ahead, Carolina has to figure out what's going on with the goaltending situation. Ward will probably be given a chance to start, but his numbers in recent years have been in decline. In 30 appearances last season, he had an unsightly .898 save percentage.
Perhaps Khudobin is ready to be the No. 1 and if Ward continues on the path he's on, Khudobin will have to be. The 27-year-old has never been a No. 1 in the league, but notched a career-high 36 appearances last year. His performance in those games was solid, as well. He had a .926 save percentage and 2.30 goals-against average. Getting him as many reps as possible is probably the best option despite the organizational loyalty and money being paid to Ward.
The defense should be fine with Faulk, Sekera, the extremely reliable Ron Hainsey and other veterans like Tim Gleason and John-Michael Liles. Also of note, Brett Bellemore could be ready for more responsibility and could lessen the team's reliance on the declining Gleason. The team will also have to squeeze in more reps for Murphy somehow.
Up front, the lone offseason addition expected to be part of the everyday NHL roster was Jay McClement, who had a really rough season with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
There are going to be some holes at forward that could potentially get plugged by guys like Brad Malone, also signed this offseason, and Chris Terry, who saw 10 games of NHL action last season and posted near a point-per-game at the AHL level.
What will make this team go, however, is the group of guys at the top of the lineup. There's some star quality in guys like Eric Staal and Skinner, while both Semin and Jordan Staal at least can draw confidence from past successes. The top defensemen are of high quality and should Faulk and Sekera stay together, they'll likely produce positive results.
The Hurricanes have a lot of work to do to get out of this malaise they've seemingly been in for years. There's a lot of ifs about this team, which means there's not a lot of certainty. Perhaps Bill Peters can come in and work some magic, but the situation he has been handed is no better than the one that got his predecessor fired.
With no clear path for moving forward, this may just be another year of running in place for the Hurricanes.
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