College basketball Power Rankings, Jan. 19: North Carolina into the top 5

Heartbreaking is too strong a word. As Creighton coach Greg McDermott said at a Wednesday press conference that was both reflective and upbeat, nobody died. Nobody was diagnosed with a serious illness. It’s just an ACL.

But nonetheless, something about Maurice Watson’s season-ending injury was heart-twinging. The fact that McDermott had to give that reminder in the first place spoke volumes about the response to the news.

“Someone in the national media said, ‘Maurice Watson’s injury is bad for Maurice, it’s bad for Creighton, and it’s bad for college basketball,” McDermott said Wednesday. “I think that’s the ultimate compliment. This little guy has had an impact on our game that people really, really appreciate.”

As a fan of the sport, it’s impossible to dislike Watson, an unheralded and undersized recruit from Philadelphia who didn’t have a major conference offer and ended up at Boston University. He excelled, then elevated himself to his dream conference, the Big East, to elevate Creighton to its best start in program history.

Watson, his career arc and his style embodied so much of what we love about college basketball. He was the overlooked, “Philly-tough” point guard who had earned his coach’s trust to the extent that McDermott never had to tell him to go back in the game. Watson would just bolt to the scorer’s table and check himself in.

McDermott spoke of Watson growing before his eyes, and the changes Watson made in his life to get to the point he was at. And he spoke of dreams. Big dreams. “You have a vision in your mind of how something’s going to end,” he said. “For Maurice and I, I was hoping it was going to be deep into an NCAA Tournament run, accomplishing some things we’ve never accomplished before as an institution.”

If not for the injury, this week’s Power Rankings might have discussed the possibility of that very dream coming true. Instead, the Bluejays have fallen in the ranks, but remain in the top 20, in part out of respect for what Watson and his teammates have achieved, and out of regret that we won’t get to see Watson make a run at that dream.

Here is that top 20, along with, as always, five more teams to keep an eye (or two) on. And five mid-majors. So 30 teams in all to label underrated or overrated, or properly rated, or something else. If you do so on Twitter (@HenryBushnell), just make sure to include the reasoning.

1. Villanova | 18-1 | KenPom: 2 | Last week: 1

There are a lot of college basketball players that would qualify as “not very smart,” especially when it comes to end-of-half clock management and the navigation of potential two-for-one opportunities. Jalen Brunson, whom we’ve gushed about in this space before, is not one of those players. So it’s time to gush about him again. Brunson made a small, relatively innocuous play at the end of the first half Monday against Seton Hall that every college point guard should study:

The argument against going two-for-one at the end of halves is simple: Because college players aren’t capable of hitting contested shots at the same rates as pros, the expected value of two rushed, low-quality shots doesn’t equal or surpass the expected value of one high-quality look. That argument, however, only applies to what happens after a team sets up in its halfcourt offense.

Watch what Brunson does immediately after Seton Hall scores. He looks up to check the game clock, sees 1:01 remaining, and claps his hands to demand the inbounds from Kris Jenkins. He then gets Villanova into its halfcourt offense with 26 seconds on the shot clock:

This is how you go 2-for-1 in college basketball. The above argument is two-sided; but the tactic doesn’t have to be associated with low-quality shots. Push the pace, and you increase your odds of getting a high-quality shot with 40-plus seconds left on the game clock. If one emerges, take it, and take the extra possession; if none emerge, play out the possession as usual, and there’s no harm done. This is common sense, yet so many college coaches refuse to abide by it.

2. Kansas | 17-1 | KenPom: 7 | Last week: 2

Kansas still trails Villanova despite a 17th-consecutive victory. But does Frank Mason still trail Josh Hart in the Player of the Year race? As promised last week, here’s the case for Mason, which is threefold. There is statistical evidence, both per game numbers — 20.3 points, 5.3 assists and 4.5 rebounds — and tempo-free rates — an 127.2 offensive rating and a 61.6 effective field goal percentage. There is anecdotal evidence, such as Mason’s clutch buckets and boards down the stretch that held off Iowa State on Monday. And more than anything, there is role-based evidence. Mason plays over 35 minutes per game at the most important position in basketball on a team that hasn’t lost since opening night. The argument is far from irrefutable. But it’s a pretty darn good one.

3. Kentucky | 16-2 | KenPom: 1 | Last week: 3

The biggest development for Kentucky since our last Power Rankings correspondence? Surely it’s Wenyen Gabriel’s offense. The lanky frosh hit five of his six three-pointers in wins over Auburn and Mississippi State after starting his Kentucky career just 4-of-20 from deep. The raw 6-foot-9 forward will always be the fourth or fifth option for John Calipari’s crew when he’s on the floor; if he can contribute consistent scoring, the Wildcat offense could go from high-powered to a UCLA level of historically potent. And with Bam Adebayo preferring to dwell in his natural habitat, the paint, if Gabriel can be a serviceable perimeter threat, even better.

4. UCLA | 18-1 | KenPom: 12 | Last week: 4

NBC Sports’ Rob Dauster dug up a stupendous stat on Lonzo Ball that is as remarkable as it is telling:

In related news — very related news — Ball’s offensive rating is 132.2, and even higher through six Pac-12 games. You know, he might be a pretty good basketball player.

5. North Carolina | 17-3 | KenPom: 6 | Last week: 8

The best offensive rebounding team in the nation was at it again Saturday, even without talented freshman center Tony Bradley, and even against the second-tallest team in college basketball. North Carolina retrieved 45.7 of its own missed shots in a 96-83 victory over Florida State, an even higher percentage than its season-long average of 42.7. Both are extremely influential numbers, and are two of many reasons the Tar Heels are back into the top five of these rankings. Theo Pinson is another.

6. Gonzaga | 17-0 | KenPom: 3 | Last week: 11

Jeff Eisenberg brought up the possibility weeks ago. You laughed it off as premature. But now, after a 79-56 takedown of St. Mary’s, everybody is climbing aboard. It’s time to start using “Gonzaga” and “undefeated” in the same sentence with regularity. KenPom says the probability of an unblemished regular season is better than one in three. A superficial look at the schedule, which has just three remaining top 100 foes, agrees. Provided the Zags don’t slip up at Santa Clara on Thursday, next week’s Power Rankings will feature some more nuanced analysis on what has made 30-0 a real possibility.

7. Florida State | 17-2 | KenPom: 18 | Last week: 6

In the fourth and fifth legs of a treacherous six-game stretch, the Seminoles did absolutely nothing to disprove the notion that they are bonafide ACC contenders and a Final Four threat. Even in eventual defeat at North Carolina, Florida State battled back from an early deficit, overcame poor free throw shooting and turnovers, and hung with one of the hottest teams in America. Four days later, Leonard Hamilton’s team beat ACC leader Notre Dame despite the Irish shooting 15-for-21 from three. Not a bad week.

8. West Virginia | 15-3 | KenPom: 4 | Last week: 5

Are opponent turnovers a requisite feature of West Virginia victories? Not necessarily. Will they be required if the Mountaineers are to mount a charge in March? It’s too early to tell. As much press as Press Virginia garners, there are many other redeeming qualities of this West Virginia team that topped KenPom’s rankings before a puzzling home loss to Oklahoma. But that loss, coupled with an earlier loss to Texas Tech, tell us that, stripped of its defining characteristic (its ability to force turnovers), West Virginia can look like an unremarkable — but still very good — team. With those leading questions hanging over the Mountaineers in the coming weeks, they’ll be one of the most intriguing teams to follow in college basketball.

9. Baylor | 17-1 | KenPom: 8 | Last week: 9

Expectations, both our own and those of others, can have a devilish effect on perception. Baylor is exhibit 1A. Two months ago, the Bears were unranked and without a single vote in either poll. Two weeks ago, they were No. 1. Their performance against those expectations would have you believe they’re trending in the wrong direction. In reality, they’ve more or less played all season at a level that should have them at the back end of the top 10. Their defense is vastly improved, while their offense is roughly in line with what it’s been ever since 2011/12. With West Virginia’s loss to Oklahoma, Scott Drew holds the rest of the Big 12’s best hope of dethroning Kansas.

10. Virginia | 14-3 | KenPom: 5 | Last week: 14

Hot take: Virginia is going to win the ACC. Reasoning: The Cavaliers have shown an encouraging ability to win games with offense in recent weeks. They scored 1.27 points per possession against Wake Forest and 1.18 in a tight road win at Clemson. The defense, which doomed them in the OT loss to Pittsburgh two weeks ago, should never be a concern. The offense still is a slight one, but with London Perrantes (49 combined points in the Wake and Clemson victories) adjusting to his larger offensive load, and others around him following suit, Virginia, even with two losses and an unforgiving conference schedule, is a sneaky bet for the ACC crown.

11. Oregon | 16-2 | KenPom: 21 | Last week: 13

The bottom half of the Pac 12 is bruuuuuuuuutal. Oregon State, whom Oregon trounced 85-43 on Saturday, has one top-200 win, three Division I wins overall, and might be one of the worst major conference teams of the 21st century.

12. Duke | 14-4 | KenPom: 11 | Last week: 10

There’s not much use in intricate forward-thinking analysis of games that Amile Jefferson misses. There’s also no point in overreacting to a tough road loss to a top-10 team. Duke has real problems, yes. The lack of a true point guard is chief among them. And sure, it is falling out of the ACC race. It is also almost certainly a top 10 team once Jefferson returns, and still has the third-best national title odds in Vegas. Don’t abandon ship.

13. Notre Dame | 16-3 | KenPom: 22 | Last week: 16

Notre Dame met its match Wednesday. The Irish offense was severely inhibited by Florida State’s length, and struggled to score within 15 feet of the rim, going 12-for-37 from inside the arc. But there’s absolutely no shame in losing at Florida State by three. You can bet Mike Brey will learn from the struggles and get his guys set for the next showdown with an elite defensive team, Tuesday against Virginia.

14. Butler | 16-3 | KenPom: 16 | Last week: 18

Kelan Martin isn’t an overwhelmingly efficient offensive player, but he’s a wonderfully problematic mismatch. Oftentimes when we think of that word, we think of bigs abusing guards in the post, or guards blowing by bigs on the perimeter. Martin will exploit any player who doesn’t neutralize every single facet of his offensive game, and he’ll do so from anywhere on the court. Here he is on three separate second-half occasions against Marquette, first out-pacing a big on a switch, then using his strength to muscle past a guard, and finally shooting over a sagging perimeter defender:

C’mon, give him the benefit of the doubt. Of course he called “bank.”

15. Louisville | 15-3 | KenPom: 9 | Last week: 7

Louisville was rolling, and proving to be every bit the top-10 team that these Power Rankings told you the Cardinals were. Then point guard Quentin Snider strained his hip flexor, and the positive vibes were momentarily squelched. Snider will miss 2-3 weeks, and Louisville isn’t the same team without him. The top priority will be to get the junior healthy for March.

16. Wisconsin | 15-3 | KenPom: 10 | Last week: 17

When in doubt — or when you don’t have much to say about a relatively uneventful week in Badgerland — revert to watching Ethan Happ do extraordinary things a month ago:

17. Arizona | 16-2 | KenPom: 17 | Last week: 19

There isn’t enough verified information on the Allonzo Trier situation to fire off an opinionated take on the suspension, the appeal, or anything that led to either. There may never be enough information for that. But this we can say: If Trier were to return to the lineup, given a two- or three-week adjustment period, Arizona would become a top-10 team and a Final Four contender. For now, though, that “if” remains as tantalizing for Wildcat fans as ever.

18. South Carolina | 15-3 | KenPom: 29 | Last week: NR

South Carolina didn’t make a two-point field goal until there were less than eight minutes remaining in the first half of its top-25 matchup against Florida Wednesday night. It still won the game, and ascended to No. 1 nationally in defensive efficiency in the process. The Gamecocks, who are 5-0 in the SEC and unbeaten this season with Sindarius Thornwell in the lineup, get Kentucky Saturday. More to come Friday on Frank Martin and his reclamation project in Columbia.

19. Florida | 14-4 | KenPom: 13 | Last week: 20

Wednesday was ugly. The Gators scored 53 points on 70 possessions. But rest assured, they won’t shoot 0-for-17 from three every night, nor will they come up against a defense as stout as South Carolina’s. Mike White has a nice little squad down there in Gainesville.

20. Creighton | 18-1 | KenPom: 15 | Last week: 12

As I wrote in the immediate aftermath of the injury, and as Greg McDermott said the following day, “there’s maybe not one player that’s as important to a team anywhere in the country as Maurice was to us.” We’ll leave the Bluejays in the top 20 until we get definitive evidence they don’t belong. But I have a disheartening feeling that that evidence is coming sooner rather than later.

Keep an eye (or two) on: Purdue, Cincinnati, Kansas State, Iowa State, TCU

Best of the mids (Atlantic-10 excluded): St. Mary’s, Illinois State, Wichita State, UNC-Wilmington, Chattanooga

Previous rankings: Jan. 5 | Jan. 12