Advertisement

Bubble breakdown: Syracuse the big winner on a wild Wednesday night

There is no more confusing team in college basketball than Syracuse, and thus it makes all kinds of sense that on one of the most confusing nights of college basketball this season, no team scored a more important win than the Orange.

Jim Boeheim’s team had erupted back into NCAA tournament contention with a five-game win streak that spanned late January and early February and included wins over Florida State and Virginia. The Orange stood tall at 8-4 in the ACC, as firm a basis for a postseason campaign as any.

But as Boeheim and his players retreated to their locker room Wednesday night, they did so with the prospects of a five-game losing streak hanging over their heads. They trailed Duke by eight in a matchup that was flanked by three losses on one end and a road trip to Louisville on the other. Their tournament outlook, though still auspicious, was being bombarded with doubt.

Then Syracuse put together arguably the most consequential 20 minutes of its season. Based on talent, and on performance over the past month-and-a-half, Syracuse is quite clearly one of the 30 best teams in college hoops; it just had to show it. Over those 20 minutes, it did. John Gillon provided the validation.

The win doesn’t quite put a lock next to the Orange just yet. But it brings them pretty darn close to the tournament. It also established Syracuse, at least temporarily, as the biggest bubble winner of the second-to-last week of the regular season.

John Gillon (4) might just have sent Syracuse to the NCAA tournament. (Getty)
John Gillon (4) might just have sent Syracuse to the NCAA tournament. (Getty)

This Week’s Bubble Winners

Syracuse (17-12, 9-7, KenPom 45, RPI 86): Syracuse has the wins: Duke, Virginia, Florida State, Miami. It also has the losses: UConn, Georgetown, St. John’s (by 30), Boston College. Especially this year, however, the former outweigh the latter. The Orange just need one more win to feel completely secure.

Providence (17-11, 7-8, KenPom 56, RPI 68): The biggest bubble winner of the past 12 days has been Providence, who was well outside the NCAA tournament picture at this time two weeks ago. The Friars’ overtime loss at Seton Hall sunk them to 14-11 and 4-8 in the Big East. But three straight wins over Butler, Xavier and Wednesday night at Creighton might just have catapulted Providence into the field if the season ended today. Those three victories, plus a late-January win at Marquette, are a better quartet than most bubble teams can boast. And with a kind schedule remaining, the Friars look to be in pretty good shape.

Minnesota (21-7, 9-6, KenPom 37, RPI 23): The Golden Gophers aren’t a bubble team, but they earn a mention here for beating Maryland on the road and locking up their bid.

Oklahoma State (19-9, 8-7, KenPom 20, RPI 28): Ditto for the Cowboys, who won on the road at Kansas State. They’re in.

Seton Hall (17-10, 7-8, KenPom 57, RPI 48): The Pirates beat Xavier at home, which isn’t as big of a win as it seems, or as it once was earlier this season or last year. Nonetheless, it’s a win over a team that should be in the field, and Seton Hall, who is still very much on the bubble, needs as many of those as it can get.

Virginia Tech (19-8, 8-7, KenPom 46, RPI 36): Seth Allen’s 3-pointer with 3.8 seconds remaining Tuesday night completed a season sweep of Clemson, and pushed Virginia Tech further toward safety.

Wichita State (26-4, 16-1, KenPom 13, RPI 40): As expected, the Shockers ripped up Evansville Tuesday night. The day before, head coach Gregg Marshall said the following to Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Eisenberg: “If you watch basketball — if you have any clue and watch basketball — there’s no doubt we’re one of the top 37 at-large teams in the country.”

Miami (19-8, 9-6, KenPom 29, RPI 37): This should be the last you hear of Miami as a part of any bubble discussion. The Hurricanes went to Charlottesville on Monday, shut down Virginia, and won in overtime. Miami should be in, even if it loses its final three regular season games.

Iowa State (18-9, 10-5, KenPom 24, RPI 38): The Cyclones’ overtime win at Texas Tech Monday was their fourth-straight, and locked up a bid for Steve Prohm and Co.

Other bubble winners: Rhode Island (won at La Salle Tuesday); Dayton (beat George Mason Tuesday); Marquette (beat St. John’s Tuesday); Michigan (won at Rutgers Wednesday); Vanderbilt (won at Tennessee Wednesday); VCU (beat Saint Louis Wednesday); Illinois State (beat Southern Illinois Wednesday); Wake Forest (beat Pittsburgh Wednesday); Arkansas (beat Texas A&M Wednesday); Houston (beat UConn Wednesday)

[Tourney Pick’em is open! Sign up now | Bracket Big Board]

This Week’s Bubble Losers

California (18-9, 9-6, KenPom 49, RPI 39): Welp… the Golden Bears had a chance to atone for their sins, to wash away last Friday’s loss at Stanford with a huge home win over Oregon. For 37 minutes, it appeared they were about to do just that. Then they coughed up the game to Dillon Brooks, whose buzzer-beater likely shoved Cal to the periphery of the 68-team field for now.

Georgetown (14-14, 5-10, KenPom 59, RPI 62): [vomiting emoji]

Tennessee (15-13, 7-8, KenPom 46, RPI 52): It’s all falling apart for the Volunteers, who have lost three of four and four of six after a home loss to Vanderbilt. No sub-.500 SEC team should go dancing, and that’s what the Volunteers now are. Unless they plan on a run to the SEC tournament final, they absolutely need to win two of their last three.

Kansas State (17-11, 6-9, KenPom 30, RPI 55): The Wildcats, once considered relatively safe, have lost seven of nine after Wednesday night’s home loss to Oklahoma State. And while five of the seven losses are totally understandable — and one of the two wins came on the road at Baylor — Kansas State has slipped onto the bubble, and perhaps to the wrong side of it.

Georgia Tech (16-12, 7-8, KenPom 79, RPI 89): Oof. Losing at home to NC State — reeling, lost-seven-in-a-row NC State — is not a good look. The Yellow Jackets remain squarely on the bubble, though. That December win at VCU keeps looking better and better.

Clemson (14-13, 4-11, KenPom 37, RPI 61): Another close game, another close loss, this time after Seth Allen’s 3 turned a two-point Clemson lead into a one-point deficit in the final five seconds of Tuesday’s game at Virginia Tech. The Tigers are now 1-8 in games decided by two possessions or fewer in conference play. The best case scenario is a 7-11 ACC record with only one win — potentially against Florida State on Saturday — over a sure-fire tournament team in conference play. At this point, the outlook is pretty bleak.

South Carolina (20-8, 10-5, KenPom 30, RPI 30): There’s no harm in losing at Florida. But it’s time to at least mention South Carolina, who has lost three in a row and four of five, along with our other esteemed bubblers. The Gamecocks’ struggles seem eerily reminiscent of last year’s collapse.

Northwestern (20-8, 9-6, KenPom 39, RPI 43): Northwestern isn’t safe just yet — not after a loss to Illinois on Tuesday, NU’s second to the Illini this year. The Wildcats might only need one more win, but their final three are at Indiana, and home against Michigan and Purdue. For a team that has lost four of six and looks a bit worn down, none of those three is a given.

Texas Tech (17-11, 5-10, KenPom 35, RPI 100): The Red Raiders haven’t won a road game in the Big 12; they’re 2-8 away from home on the season. So at the very least, Texas Tech needs to hold serve at home against the Big 12’s middle tier. It didn’t do that Monday night, losing to Iowa State in overtime. A 2-1 record to close the regular season now seems like a must.

Other bubble losers: Indiana (lost at Iowa Tuesday); Pittsburgh (lost at Wake Forest Wednesday); TCU (lost at Kansas Wednesday)