Bears-Jets Preview: 12 things to know about Week 3's MNF game

When teams from the NFL's two largest markets meet Monday in New Jersey to conclude the third week of the 2014 NFL regular season, the Chicago Bears will be trying to build off of an exhilarating comeback victory while the New York Jets will be attempting to rebound after a comically bad collapse.

If you believe in momentum, the Jets are in trouble. They built a 21-3 first-half lead in Week 2 against the Green Bay Packers before falling victim to Aaron Rodgers and Co. Gang Green was outscored 28-3 during the final 36 minutes, lowlighted by a controversial, broken-protocol timeout that turned defensive lineman Sheldon Richardson into this generation's Chris Webber.

Meanwhile, in San Francisco, the Bears intercepted Colin Kaepernick twice in the fourth quarter to complete a comeback from a 17-0 deficit, spoiling the grand opening of the 49ers' new home, Levi's Stadium.

But oftentimes in this league, momentum is a unicorn.

And because there are more important factors at play, let's break down the matchup in both serious and non-serious fashion. Twelve things to know...

1. The media's favorite storyline stinks

Aside from the biggies (Peyton Manning back in Indianapolis, for example), the hype surrounding a player's return to his former football home is almost always too much.

Yes, Bears wide receiver Santonio Holmes spent four controversy-plagued years in New York, but he's a mere backup now in Chicago. With Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery playing full-time again despite injuries, Holmes was targeted just twice against San Francisco, and he has just four catches for 41 yards this season.

If he catches a touchdown pass, it'll be kind of cool for like a minute or two. Aside from that, you'll likely forget that Holmes is facing his former team. It's an easy storyline for us to create buzz around, but it's just not that interesting.

2. These teams couldn't be more different

Veteran quarterback vs. sophomore quarterback. Pass-first offense vs. run-first offense. Fiery front seven vs. soft front seven. Marc Trestman vs. Rex Ryan. You get the point. Looking at the key numbers, they're complete opposites:

3. Bears don't really like to run

In Trestman's defense, that 23rd rank in terms of yards per rushing attempt doesn't provide inspiration. But in running back Matt Forte's defense, he's about to face his third really strong defensive front in as many weeks.

That star-studded Jets front seven has allowed only 2.8 yards per carry this season, ranking third in the NFL. But Forte and Co. must be used to stifling run defenses by now, because their first two opponents -- the Bills and 49ers -- are loaded with stud run-stoppers. You don't mess with dudes like Marcell Dareus, Kyle Williams, Justin Smith and Patrick Willis.

And so the Bears chose not to, opting to throw the ball an inordinate percentage of the time. Specifics? Chicago has run passing plays on a league-high 71 percent of its offensive snaps this season, which even in this pass-happy era is off the charts.

Believe me, that kind of extreme lack of balance isn't a good thing. Just take a look at the five teams that had the highest passing percentages in football last season ...

Not a single winner among 'em.

"We need to run the ball," Bears guard Kyle Long said last week. "I know we got the win on the road, and it was big. I'm sure everybody else in our room will echo that. So will Matt. You need to run the ball in the National Football League, and we'll be better at that."

Yeah, but that doesn't mean they'll smarten up against the Jets. Remember guys, Trestman comes from the CFL. The man loves throwing it, and when you've got a gunslinging quarterback like Jay Cutler working with Pro Bowl-caliber receivers like Marshall and Jeffery, and when you're facing a shoddy secondary like New York's, it's tempting to throw all night.

Which leads me to this ...

4. Mismatch of the week: Chicago's receivers vs. New York's secondary

Brandon Marshall hauled in three touchdowns vs. the 49ers last Sunday. (USATSI)

The Jets must be thanking the football gods that Marshall and Jeffery are both less than 100 percent. Marshall has been out of practice and was limited last week by a balky ankle, while Jeffery has been hampered by a nagging hamstring, which at least means a thin New York secondary will have a bit of a break against arguably the best 1-2 receiver duo in football.

But this is still a disastrous matchup, especially with top Jets cornerback Dee Milliner dealing with a quad injury that took him off the practice field late in the week.

Trestman knows how to get his big receivers one-on-one matchups in and around the red zone, which might explain how a hobbled Marshall still managed to score three touchdowns in San Fran.

Marshall is 6-foot-4 and can do things like this despite being less than 100 percent ... 

Jeffery is 6-foot-3 and tight end Martellus Bennett is 6-foot-6. Pick your poison. That's what the Niners were forced to do, and this is what happened...

That was Brandon Marshall scoring and here's Bennett:

5. The Jets have to watch Matt Forte as a receiver

Matt Forte is still looking to get going this season. (USATSI)

Trestman knows how dangerous Forte can be, and he knows he has to get him more touches. The Bears can't be expected to do a ton of damage on the ground against that defensive front -- especially if the Jets are able to cheat with the injured Marshall and Jeffery and crowd the box more than usual, as the Niners did last week -- but they also can't afford to disregard Forte completely.

The Jets are superb run-stuffers, but they also have a solid pass rush. They have 47 sacks since the start of the 2013 season, which is tied for 10th in the NFL during that stretch. Pro Football Focus ranks defensive ends Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson among the top 12 pass-rushing 3-4 ends in football, while Quinton Coples has 10 quarterback pressures, which is tied for the most among 3-4 outside linebackers coming into the Week 3 action. 

Cutler has completed 67 percent of his passes under pressure this season, which according to PFF ranks second in football, and we know he can take a beating. But with Wilkerson, Richardson, Coples and Calvin Pace hunting him down and heavy blitzes inevitably coming, the Bears have to get the screen game going in a major way.

That may be the best way to neutralize New York's pass rush. Coples and Pace are rangy, but inside linebacker David Harris is old and slow and Forte is one of the best pass-catching receivers in the game. If he can start going to work on Harris and the young Demario Davis, it might force the Jets to lay off the rush with Coples and/or Pace.

The Jets, though, should be ready. According to Football Outsiders, they gave up only 28.5 receiving yards per game to running backs last season, ranking fifth in the NFL. Something might have to give, because Forte has been one of the league's most prolific pass-catching backs since entering the league in 2008:

But there's clear evidence that when Forte is a prominent part of the passing game, Chicago's quarterbacks are more likely to remain upright. Check out the numbers from 2013:

The pressure didn't change much, but that safety valve saved them half a sack a game on seven occasions.

6. Even if Geno Smith has nobody at receiver, Chicago will have its hands full on D

Here's a cocktail for failure on the road: Chicago is giving up 5.3 yards per carry and the Jets are averaging 5.0 on offense. Chris Ivory's 6.3 average is the highest in the NFL among backs with at least 20 attempts.

And OK, Jets quarterback Geno Smith is always vulnerable. He’s been the third least accurate quarterback in the league while under pressure this season, according to PFF. But if the Bears are preoccupied merely with slowing Ivory down, how is a subpar pass rush going to make an impact on Smith in the pocket?

Last season, the Bears' pass rush was ranked 31st in the league by Pro Football Focus. Nobody in football had fewer sacks than them. They've been a little better this year against EJ Manuel and Colin Kaepernick, and Smith takes sacks at a higher rate than either of those guys, but it'll still be an uphill battle against D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Co.

The Bears need Jared Allen at his best. In the offseason, they basically traded in the over-the-hill Julius Peppers for Allen, who has 128.5 career sacks but only 11.5 in his last 18 games.

After a quiet Bears debut against Buffalo, Allen had a few pressures and a forced fumble in San Fran. The 32-year-old will have to build on that Monday night.

7. Advanced stat of the week

The two starting quarterbacks in this game are only 4 for 17 this season on pass attempts targeted 20 or more yards downfield, according to Pro Football Focus. Last year, Smith was accurate on 46 percent of his deep passes, while Cutler was accurate on 45 percent. But early this year, they've dropped to 29 percent and 30 percent, respectively.

The sample size is small, but that makes you wonder if Cutler is being more conservative with both of his top weapons hurt. He's gone deep 25 percent less often this year than he did last year. And Smith didn't have top receiver Eric Decker for the majority of the second half of New York's Week 2 matchup with Green Bay.

8. Under-the-radar stat of the week

Two weeks into the season, only three teams have been penalized for more yardage than the Jets. They've been flagged twice for roughing the passer and twice for unsportsmanlike conduct. This is an undisciplined squad, and in a game that is supposed to be close -- at last check, the Jets were favored by a field goal -- that could be a difference-maker.

9. Injuries to watch

Eric Decker has been a vital weapon for Geno Smith so far this season. (USATSI)

All of the talk in Chicago is about Marshall and Jeffery, but the Bears are also a little thin in the secondary with veteran corner Charles Tillman out for the year and safety Chris Conte dealing with a shoulder injury. Fortunately for Chicago, the Jets' already-weak receiving corps could be short-handed.

Decker was out of practice all week with a hamstring injury. Without him, the Jets are down to -- and I'm being serious -- David Nelson, Jeremy Kerley and Greg Salas at wide receiver. No wonder Smith was just 4 for 12 for 45 yards without his top receiver last week.

New York could also be without Milliner, who hurt his quad last week. The top pick from 2012 was already being eased back from a high-ankle sprain, but New York’s secondary is a mess without him. This is a team that let Antonio Cromartie go in the offseason and is down to Antonio Allen, Darrin Walls and Kyle Wilson without Milliner.

10. Totally useless but sometimes fascinating historical notes

Sadly, neither of these teams has won a Super Bowl in my lifetime. Some indisputable facts, all of which will have no impact on Monday's game:

• They've met only 10 times, with the Bears winning seven of those matchups.

• When they last met, in 2010, Forte had 169 yards on 23 touches as Chicago won a shootout, 38-34. Mark Sanchez was New York's quarterback, but Brandon Marshall was in Miami and Alshon Jeffery was in his second year at South Carolina.

• The Bears have an all-time winning percentage of .541. The Jets are at .460. But both teams have exactly one Super Bowl victory.

11. But which city is cooler?

In case your team loses, let's give you a chance to say you live in the cooler metropolis. Just drop this on your football frenemies:

So, Chicago, if you lose, just talk up deep-dish like it’s nobody's business.

This is, admittedly, completely subjective. Feel free to move on to No. 12. 

12. Prediction: Points will be scored. Lots of them

The Jets don't exactly have a high-octane offense, but Smith has shown major signs of improvement and they should move the ball consistently with mismatches on the ground. And New York's D is strong, but that secondary is vulnerable and the Bears quietly had the league's second highest scoring offense last season.

When these two teams met four years ago, nobody expected them to combine for 72 points. This time, don't be surprised if they both reach the 30-point plateau again.

And everything points to this being a one-score game. The Jets aren't as accomplished of late, but they were 6-2 at home last year while Chicago was just 3-5 on the road.

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL since 2007. You can also read his work at Bleacher Report, Awful Announcing and This Given Sunday. In order to sound more professional, he wrote this blurb in the third person.

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