Abusing the Default Rankings 2

Welcome back! In case you missed the first part addressing why this is good stuff to know, you can check it out here.

Another important thing to remember is that you don’t have to have a completely balanced team or one that is fine-tuned exactly to how you want it to be for a punt. The team you draft is not going to be the team you have in January. You might have some injuries, could make a hot waiver-wire add, make a trade, or a guy completely shatters expectations either positively or negatively.

Basically, you want to draft the best player. Sure, maybe a need will be a tiebreaker for you if you evaluate the same four guys in a particular spot, but don’t let a guy you love go just because you drafted a similar player in the previous two rounds.

If you think about it from an auction standpoint, there are going to be a ton of guys who go for $1 or $2. Does that mean all of those guys are liked the same by owners the same amount? Of course not. That’s just how it went down and you can think about your draft in a similar way.

Alright, so we’ll go a little more in depth this time around on the analysis and today we're going over Yahoo!'s draft applet. Much like ESPN Yahoo! stepped it up and I'm being pretty nit-picky here:

You can follow me on Twitter @MikeSGallagher for all sorts of stats, analysis, Vines and comments while the games are on.

Players listed higher overall than expected:

Kevin Love (8)

LaMarcus Aldridge (11)

Al Jefferson (12)

Kyrie Irving (18)

Joakim Noah (26)

Rudy Gay (31)

Deron Williams (35)

Dwyane Wade (36)

Brook Lopez (41)

DeMar DeRozan (43)

Rajon Rondo (50)

David Lee (54)

Michael Carter-Williams (58)

Kevin Martin (72)

Zach Randolph (75)

Nikola Pekovic (79)

J.R. Smith (98)

Ersan Ilyasova (109)

Gerald Green (126)

Manu Ginobili (127)

Solomon Hill (139)

Amare Stoudemire (150)

I think Love could be fantastic in his first season and he has started hot in October, but it’s a little discouraging to see how coach David Blatt is setting up the offense for him. He’s not really running plays for him and he’d have to knock down a ton of threes to be a top-10 guy. Plus, don’t forget he’s susceptible to the injury bug.

LaMarcus Aldridge has two hip surgeries on his medical chart and he had a groin issue last year. Yes, that’s not the same thing, but it’s a little bit of a bigger concern to me. I’d much rather have Ibaka, Kawhi or Blake.

Another injury risk, he’s had foot/ankle problems to start the year in both seasons in Charlotte. Plus, he had the dreaded plantar fasciitis in the playoffs last season. Be careful.

I’m not a Kyrie fan and covered it a while back here. I talked about Rudy Gay and Brook Lopez in part one.

I have no problem with the two highly-ranked DWs, Williams and Wade, on this list on a per-game basis. However, they are way too risky to take in the third round. I like them 1-1.5 rounds later, assuming some of my favorite targets aren't there.

DeMar DeRozan isn’t really going to bring defense, he doesn’t hit treys and he won’t shoot the ball well. That’s leaving you very little margin for error in the mid-fourth.

Rondo at 50 in a nine-cat is too risky considering he’s a detriment to both percentages. Same with MCW at 58, and they’re both hurt.

David Lee is hurt more than he probably should be and he’s at risk of losing minutes to Draymond Green — a much better fit. Z-Bo is similar and his game just doesn’t translate to fantasy (his minutes aren’t at risk though). Pek is also similar and his minutes are coming down. Way too risky.

As for the rest, I think you can ignore them in standards.

Players listed lower overall than expected:

Serge Ibaka (13)

Kawhi Leonard (15)

Kevin Durant (16)

Nicolas Batum (20)

Mike Conley (27)

Derrick Favors (51)

Victor Oladipo (57)

Jonas Valanciunas (68)

Markieff Morris (74)

Andrew Wiggins (92)

Isaiah Thomas (99)

Jeremy Lin (102)

Draymond Green (116)

Jared Sullinger (117)

Alec Burks (138)

K.J. McDaniels (156)

Tristan Thompson (159)

Spencer Hawes (168)

Tony Wroten (175)

C.J. Miles (190)

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (196)

Serge is money in nine-cat. If he’s healthy, and he should be as one of the most durable players, he’ll be a top-10 guy. Kawhi at 15 in a nine-cat seems like a great bargain. Durant has never made it out of the first round in any real draft I’ve done and the lowest I’ve seen him go in a public mock is 13.

I love Batum and he’s a lot like Kawhi with more treys and worse field goal shooting. He’s a fantasy stud and his role won’t change even if C.J. McCollum pushes for minutes — that could push Wesley Matthews to the three on occasion.

Mike Conley is another underrated guy. The steals are elite, he shoots the ball fairly well and the dimes should rise. He’s an easy No. 1 fantasy point guard.

The next group of Favors, Oladipo, Valanciunas and Markieff are all probably my favorite fliers in the middle rounds. If you can get three out of four in rounds 4-6, you’re in awesome shape.

I’m not the biggest Wiggins fan, but his output in defense and triples should make him a target around 70 or so. I don’t love him at 70, but that’s probably where you’d want to take him if you love him.

Man, the Pizza Guy is rolling in PHX. I had my doubts at first, but the pace should offset the low minutes. Plus, his usage and assist percentage will be lovely in the second unit. Although, I have yet to draft him. You can say a similar thing about Jeremy Lin, who has bigger upside than IT3.I have drafted Lin a handful of times.

If you can land Sully, Draymond, Burks and McDaniels in the last four rounds of your standard league, you have an awful league. All of those guys shouldn’t make it past 100. If you want Sully, you probably have to pounce around 75-80 He’s ballin’.

I’m not a huge Tristan or Hawes fan, but that’s some serious value that late. Wroten should be terrific in the first couple weeks.

KCP is going to be featured and hasn’t done anything to suggest he’ll be pushed out of the rotation while Jodie Meeks (back) misses time. He’s a safer bet than C.J. Miles, who is also a great pick that late.

Where the buzz guys are ranked:

Kawhi Leonard (15)

Andre Drummond (22)

Derrick Rose (40)

Victor Oladipo (57)

Derrick Favors (51)

Kenneth Faried (53)

Jabari Parker (73)

Markieff Morris (74)

Reggie Jackson (83)

Nerlens Noel (61)

Elfrid Payton (87)

Giannis Antetokounmpo (104)

Alec Burks (138)

Julius Randle (165)

Bojan Bogdanovic (490)

Steven Adams (309)

Otto Porter (201)

OK, so if you’re looking for some explanation, you’ll want to check out part one. This time, we’re going to compare the rankings a bit more:

Kawhi is actually down in Y!, which is surprising because he’s a nine-cat stud. Drummond is up in Y!, which makes sense, and he’ll destroy that ADP if you can punt properly. Rose and Oladipo basically fit the bill compared to ESPN. They’re lower, which makes sense because of the turnover factor. Manimal is a steal at 53 and I have never seen Jabari go past 60. He’s started every preseason game except the opener, so he should be good to go. Markieff will not last to 74 and I’m not worried about his slow preseason. If you can get him after 55 (and nobody slipped), you’re fine.

Reggie and Payton are about right where they should be on both formats. Reggie missing time might allow him to slide to you in the 80s, which is nice. I think Noel is too high at 61, but I get it because the upside in blocks.

Giannis at 104 is also about right. Did you see his line Wednesday night? He shot 0-of-7 from the field for one point, five rebounds, three assists, four steals, three blocks and eight turnovers. That pretty much sums up his upside and risk right there.

As long as Alec Burks doesn’t blow it at the free throw line, he’ll be a top 70 guy and maybe even top 50. ESPN and Yahoo! have him rated similarly.

ESPN had Julius at 131, so 165 is a nice pick in Y!. Obviously, there’s no way he slides that far after an impressive Wednesday.

Bojan has cooled off with the buzz, but he’s going to start. Steven Adams is basically the same story, but much, much safer with bigger upside, too.

The fantasy world found out why Otto Porter is one of my favorite sleepers with a stat-stuffing 22-point game on Wednesday. He’s going to be risky, but the opportunity is there.

Who to scroll down for (guys beyond 200):

Otto Porter (201)

D.J. Augustin (211)

Marvin Williams (214)

Ramon Sessions (224)

Marcus Thornton (225)

Kyle O’Quinn (233)

Tim Hardaway Jr. (240)

C.J. Watson (247)

Anthony Morrow (250)

Luis Scola (254)

Anthony Tolliver (266)

Hollis Thompson (269)

Evan Fournier (286)

Cory Joseph (292)

Steven Adams (309)

Quincy Acy (322)

Kevin Seraphin (324)

Perry Jones III (348)

Elliot Williams (349)

Chris Copeland (352)

Quincy Pondexter (376)

Andre Roberson(377)

Arnett Moultrie(394)

Rudy Gobert (399)

Troy Daniels (439)

Glen Rice Jr. (455)

Shabazz Napier (487)

Bojan Bogdanovic (490)

Rodney Hood (502)

Spencer Dinwiddie (519)

Kosta Papnikolaou (520)

Kyle Anderson (564)

Tarik Black (570)

James Ennis (604)

It’s pretty much the same guys here, so check out part 1. Again, standard league owners should have their eyes on Otto Porter, Chris Copeland, Quincy Pondexter, Rudy Gobert, Perry Jones III, Steven Adams, Andre Roberson, Anthony Morrow, Bojan Bogdanovic and Kyle O’Quinn.

After that, Brandon Jennings has a sore Achilles, so DJA is watch-worthy. I also like Marvin Williams a tad, but you can probably do better. Anthony Tolliver might be used in Channing Frye’s role. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Arnett Moultrie unseat Henry Sims — a Noel injury would also help him.

Kevin Seraphin could be a nice plug-n-play in the opener with the suspensions. Shabazz Napier came back to Earth on Tuesday, but still watch him.

Spencer Dinwiddie debuts tonight! YES! He’s expected to play around 18-20 minutes.

Alright, that'll do it! Happy drafting!