2015 Category Sleepers: HR
It’s never too early to prepare for your draft, and things are clearing up week-by-week as the hot stove heats up. What a great time of year!
The following is Week 2 of the 10-part series of sleepers for each 5x5 roto category (BA, HR, RBI, R, SB, W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV). Since we are still waiting on the hot stove league, for the next few weeks we will focus on players in categories that are less based on opportunity and more based on skill. Other roto categories that are more dependent on opportunity, supporting cast, and batting order spot (R, RBI, SB) or team and manager (W, SV) will be discussed in the latter half of the 10-week series.
Before reading any further, it’s important to note the definition of a sleeper. In this case, it’s a player who will exceed draft day ADP AND projections in a particular category. The players are broken down by mixed league sleepers and single league sleepers.
Keep in mind that the list below is more breakout home run hitters than rebound candidates (sorry, Mark Trumbo).
Mixed League Sleepers
Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox
A popular sleeper going into last season after his strong showing late in 2013, Bogaerts just tread water in his rookie season. Fantasy owners were disappointed by the top prospect’s .240-12-46 final line, though perhaps the expectations were unfair for a 21-year-old shortstop with limited pro experience. He did look strong in April, May, and September, but was in a horrific three-month slump in between.
We did see some progress from Bogaerts late in the season, however, as he hit .313-4-16 during September. More immediate power was expected of Bogaerts based on his impressive minor league track record, hitting a total of 51 homers from 2011-13. He’s already performed well in the majors vs. lefties, but he had trouble making contact against right-handers with 109 strikeouts in 382 at-bats. While it could be difficult for Bogaerts to help fantasy owners in batting average if that trend continues, the power indicators look strong. He was among the most extreme flyball hitters in the game last season with a 0.63 GB/FB ratio, and produced a .490 slugging percentage during his final month.
Ultimately, fantasy owners have to make a decision on whether Bogaerts’ late-season rebound was a sign of things to come or just your typical streaky hitter who isn’t ready. Given his minor league history and flyball rate, it’s fair to project 20 homers from Bogaerts, which would put him among the elite power hitters at shortstop. For what it’s worth, Bogaerts was pushed up to the No. 2 spot in the batting order late in the year when he was playing better, which could be a nice boost for his plate appearances if he can stick in that spot when Boston is healthier.
C.J. Cron, 1B, Angels
Cron was an early addition by some fantasy owners with his great debut in May and June, hitting .290-8-22 during those months. He played sparingly in the majors the rest of the way, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone that he slowed late in the year after a full slate of fall and winter league play in 2013-14. The final results were still strong, with 18 homers 455 at-bats between Triple-A Salt Lake and the majors.
Cron’s power peaked during 2012 in the hitter-friendly California League, with 27 long balls in 129 games. It fell the following year at Double-A to only 14 home runs, but the Angels became more optimistic following his great Arizona Fall League showing. Cron’s approach doesn’t exactly show great patience, but scouts have long projected greater power as he grows into his 6-4 frame. Like the aforementioned Xander Bogaerts, Cron’s GB/FB ratio ranked among the lowest in the game during his rookie season.
The biggest question going into next season for Cron is whether he can find regular at-bats. As the Angels roster stands now, Cron is slated to be the team’s DH. The team seems unlikely to address that spot unless they decide to move Josh Hamilton to the DH spot full-time, but just his presence and history of injuries could take precedence over finding playing time for Cron. Maybe the Angels would consider trying Cron in an outfield corner during spring training, as they did with Mark Trumbo when he was with the team. Regardless, Cron projects well as a 20-plus home run hitter if he finds regular at-bats in 2015.
Travis d’Arnaud, C, Mets
While his rookie season had many bumps, d’Arnaud produced like a mixed league catcher during the second half (.265-7-22) and is now ready for an encore. His first half included a .217 batting average, as well as a demotion to Triple-A, which is why there is a perception that d’Arnaud had a poor rookie season. In reality, he earned starter status in two-catcher mixed leagues due to the power, and certainly has more upside to provide in 2015.
D’Arnaud has been considered an elite catching prospect partly as a result of that power, with a career .488 slugging percentage and most impressively 24 homers at Triple-A in 390 at-bats. Six of those homers came in only 55 at-bats last season during his demotion, though it should be mentioned that Triple-A Las Vegas is one of the most hitter-friendly atmospheres in baseball. Despite that fact, he shows all the makings of a future 20 home run hitter and was already coming along nicely in the second half. To further spur his fantasy value, d’Arnaud hit in the middle of the Mets’ batting order over the last two months of the season and could continue to do so next season if the team doesn’t add beyond Michael Cuddyer.
Marcus Semien, 2B/3B, White Sox
Semien started last season as a regular, but forced his demotion with poor stats through the first two months of the season. Some scouts see him as more of a utilityman, but his minor league numbers would suggest otherwise. Semien hit .284-19-66 with 24 steals between three levels in 2013, and smacked 15 homers in only 303 at-bats at Triple-A Charlotte last season.
The White Sox go into 2015 with a full-blown competition at second base between Semien, Carlos Sanchez, and Micah Johnson after finally getting rid of Gordon Beckham last season. There is no question that Semien provides the greatest offensive upside of the group, with Sanchez and Johnson lacking power. Semien’s versatility also gives him the best chance of making the roster regardless of what happens in the position battle. The question then becomes whether Semien can perform at the major league level, but September brings good momentum for him. Semien picked up semi-regular at-bats to close out the year, hitting -.273-3-10 in 66 at-bats. He made significant progress with his contact rate relative to early in the year, albeit in limited playing time, and has shown incredible plate patience as a minor leaguer. An extreme flyball hitter, Semien already projects as a near-15 home run hitter with the pace he set last season in the majors, and he could cash in with more plate appearances if he breaks out of the gate quickly.
Single League Sleepers
Hank Conger, C, Astros
Betting on Conger is admittedly just a speculative play at this point, hoping that the Jason Castro trade rumors will come to fruition. Conger was acquired from the Angels early in the offseason, and the first-round pick has long been considered a strong sabermetrics catcher. After making progress with his offense in 2013, Conger regressed last season hitting just .221-4-25 in 231 at-bats behind Chris Iannetta. He has only 17 home runs in 688 career at-bats, but the Astros are hoping for something more reminiscent of the former first-round pick’s minor league numbers. He hit double-digit home runs in the minors six times, including 26 homers in 751 career at-bats for Triple-A Salt Lake. Conger’s contact rate has never matched what he did in the minors, but his extreme flyball rate and minor league history make him an interesting play if he sees more regular playing time.
Randal Grichuk, OF, Cardinals
Unlike Peter Bourjos, Grichuk had a terrific season after being acquired by St. Louis last offseason for David Freese. With his first look at Triple-A Memphis, Grichuk hit .259-25-71 in only 436 at-bats. He even became the team’s regular right fielder in the playoffs, hitting two home runs in 35 at-bats. The jury is still out on Grichuk’s ability as a regular in the majors, however. He fanned nearly 30 percent of the time in limited at-bats last season with the Cards, and did most of his damage against lefties. For his minor league career, Grichuk has a paltry .736 OPS as a right-handed hitter vs. right-handed pitching, and that number was much worse last season. The addition of Jason Heyward limits Grichuk’s opportunities. Nevertheless, Grichuk has significant power and the versatility to play all three outfield positions. That should allow him to fit in a platoon role, at worst, with the payoff likely to be 300-350 at-bats. With 15 home run upside in just a part-time role, he’s an easy investment to make.
Alex Guerrero, 2B/SS, Dodgers
Another speculative play at this point, Guerrero’s value heading into 2015 could be anywhere. Expected to play second base heading into last season, Guerrero’s work-in-progress defense at the position allowed Dee Gordon to win the job. Still, the Cuban more than held his own at hitter-friendly Triple-A Albuquerque, hitting .329-15-49 in only 243 at-bats. As documented, he missed significant time due to dugout fight with Miguel Olivo that resulted in Mike Tyson-Evander Holyfield comparisons. His four-year, $28 million contract signed out of Cuba is probably now of little consequence with a new front office regime in LA, but as the roster stands now with Hanley Ramirez a free agent we’re looking at Guerrero as the team’s shortstop on paper. Even in the case that the team brings Hanley back, Guerrero seems very likely to make the Opening Day roster if his defense is up to snuff. He gained experience at third base and the outfield in the minors last season, and could be quite the utilityman with clear double-digit home run upside in a part-time role.
Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Red Sox
Fantasy owners are starting to forget about Middlebrooks and rightfully so after his epic failure last season. He fought through nagging injuries and hit only .191-2-19 in 215 at-bats, so it’s not surprising that the Red Sox have been connected with Pablo Sandoval this offseason. Should the Red Sox sign Sandoval, it’s likely they would find a taker for Middlebrooks, if they choose to do so, after he hit 32 home runs in 615 total at-bats the previous two seasons. It’s important to note that Middlebrooks’ struggles came in conjunction with a finger injury, which nagged him from spring training through the middle of the season and caused a DL stint. He also missed time with calf and hamstring problems, making for a season we’d all like to forget. Still, Middlebrooks is just one year removed from hitting 17 home runs in only 348 at-bats, and the explanation for his downfall last season should leave fantasy owners more comfortable investing in his discounted price for 2015.
