Scare tactics
If someone spots a clear road to the Final Four, it's probably a mirage. Danger often looms for the favorites, and statistics should serve as ample warning.
Over the past two decades, only 38 of the 80 top-seeded teams have reached the Final Four. The number of times all four top seeds have made it in the same year during that same period?
Zero.
Heading into the Sweet 16 this week, the UCLA Bruins appear to be the most vulnerable of the No. 1 seeds. Fellow No. 1 Memphis was also tested, winning its second-round game over Mississippi State, 78-74. Meanwhile, the other top seeds, North Carolina and Kansas, cruised.
UCLA sweated out a 51-49 victory against ninth-seeded Texas A&M in the second round. But Ben Howland's team, which struggled offensively before rallying, also can take heart from an anxiety-filled game in which they trailed by 10 points and survived a frantic final minute.
John Thompson, Bobby Knight and Jerry Tarkanian have felt the same angst on their way to winning a national championship.
The top seeds and anyone else mapping out the road to San Antonio, site of this year's Final Four, might benefit from the following historical perspective:
1984 GEORGETOWN
You probably remember Patrick Ewing as the "Hoya Destroya" who helped power Georgetown past Houston and future NBA Hall-of-Famer Hakeem Olajuwon in the 1984 national championship game. What you might have forgotten was the way Ewing's team played in a second-round game against Southern Methodist University.
The mighty Hoyas squeaked past ninth-seeded SMU, 37-36.
At 2:30 a.m. the day of the game, the Hoyas were jarred awake at the team hotel.
"Somebody pulled the fire alarm," said Craig Esherick, an assistant coach on that team, who still wonders if someone connected with SMU was responsible for the early morning antics.
Esherick knows for certain how SMU nearly pulled the upset. A year before the shot clock was instituted, the Mustangs slowed the game to a crawl and built a slim lead before Georgetown escaped in the final minute.
"We were very good, and we knew we were very good," Esherick said by phone earlier this week. "Sometimes that leads to complacency.
"I don't think we played poorly. But I think we recognized how tough it is to advance in the tournament. That may have been something we didn't understand at the time. But I think SMU was a really good team. …
"As a coach you want to have that type of game to get the players' attention early. Because a coach is always saying, 'Look, we're in the NCAA tournament. All the teams are good.'"
Esherick said UCLA's second-round scare hasn't changed his view of the Bruins.
"I thought from the very beginning that the two best teams in the country are UCLA and North Carolina," he said. "I still think that now."
1987 INDIANA
You probably remember Keith Smart's game-winning shot that lifted Indiana to the national championship in 1987 against a Syracuse team that included future NBA players Derrick Coleman, Rony Seikaly and Sherman Douglas. What you might forget is Indiana's Elite Eight game, when they edged 10th-seeded LSU, 77-76.
That night, facing coach Dale Brown and the upstart Tigers, Indiana was down 12 points in the second half.
"Once you get past the first round and down to 32 teams, anybody can beat anybody," said Joe Hillman, who played for Knight on that championship team. "That's why you get some of these games.
"We got down and we weren't playing well. But LSU had a lot to do with that. They were a good, strong, physical team that took away a lot of our stuff."
Not only were the Tigers good, Hillman said, but they probably deserved to be seeded higher than 10th. In fact, he said seeding – a subjective process handled by the NCAA selection committee – might give people a false impression of just how talented they are. He said Texas A&M's uneven play during the regular season probably resulted in them being seeded lower than their talent warranted.
"We struggled defensively and it was a grind, and that's what UCLA went through with Texas A&M," Hillman said. "UCLA had its scare and I think all of these (top-seeded) teams eventually will have a game where you don't shoot well and you've got to find a way to win."
And considering UCLA survived the scare?
"I think they'll roll," Hillman said.
1990 UNLV
You probably remember UNLV's powerhouse team that featured Larry Johnson, Stacey Augmon and Greg Anthony and crushed Duke 103-73 in the 1990 NCAA championship game. The Runnin' Rebels got the better of Christian Laettner, Brian Davis and Bobby Hurley. What you probably forget is UNLV's regional semifinal scare.
The Rebels edged 12th-seeded Ball State, 69-67.
"They were a solid team and they played well," said Anthony, who played in the NBA for more than a decade after leaving towel-chewing Tarkanian and UNLV. "We didn't play well. But the reality is, we still found a way to win."
Anthony, now an analyst for Yahoo! Sports, dismissed suggestions that Texas A&M unmasked UCLA's deficiencies and the close call indicates the Bruins are headed for defeat before reaching the Final Four.
"Any time you're the No. 1 seed, you're going to bring out the best in your opponent," he said. "The other team doesn't have the pressure.
"Forget what everybody else says. These teams are more than capable of beating you. So in essence, it's a lesson well learned."
But more than a lesson, Anthony said, close calls against underdogs serve as "defining moments."
"In the tournament, it's probably more important that you can win when you don't play well than you can win when you do," he said. "That's the sign of a great team. …
"When things aren't going well, you have to keep you're foot on the pedal."
Georgetown, Indiana and UNLV aren't alone. There was another top-seeded team that survived a second-round scare, holding on for a 75-74 victory over eighth-seeded Missouri, before going on to win the national title.
The year? 1995.
The team? UCLA.
