Feeling the Heat
Because of the NBA Finals' 2-3-2 format, Game 2 is a must for the Miami Heat.
If they fall down 2-0 to the Dallas Mavericks, they would realistically have to win all three home games in Miami to put themselves in good position to win the series. Only Detroit in 2004 has won all three middle games at home since this format was adopted. It's a difficult task, particularly when you have to win all three.
I've always felt the team with home-court advantage has one thought going into the Finals: Somehow get to Game 6 with a 3-2 lead, and then take your chances with two cracks at the title in your own gym. The Mavericks would be in great shape to be in that position by winning Game 2.
Breaking down Sunday's game is a matter of perspective. If you're a Dallas fan and a "glass is half full" type, you're ecstatic. Your team is up 1-0 despite the fact that your best players – Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard – combined for just 26 points on 7-for-28 shooting. Each struggled with his shot, perhaps because of some Finals jitters or maybe because Miami's defense was strong. Regardless, it is difficult to see those two coming up empty again in Game 2, and if they break out, Dallas could really be in business.
On the other hand, if your glass is half empty, you might be a little worried. Howard's shot was off all night, and you wonder if he'll get it back any time soon. He's not a natural shooter – more of a "made" one – and his rut might last a while. Howard needs to get to the rim and create some easy looks for himself, but every time he tried to do that in Game 1, Shaquille O'Neal was there to alter the shot.
Nowitzki drained a couple of big threes in the second half but otherwise wasn't himself. Did Udonis Haslem do that good of a job on him, or did Dirk just settle for jumpers? Was Nowitzki reluctant to attack the rim because of O'Neal's presence? If Haslem and O'Neal can continue to bother Dirk into poor shooting nights, and Howard remains off the mark, the Mavericks could be in some trouble.
From Miami's point of view, Sunday's game is about getting contributions from its peripheral players. The Heat reserves scored just two points in Game 1 and were thoroughly outplayed by their Dallas counterparts. Antoine Walker made just three of nine three-pointers and Gary Payton missed all three of his attempts as Miami shot 5-of-20 overall from beyond the arc. With O'Neal facing plenty of double teams, the Heat have to make open shots from long range in order to win.
On the bright side for Miami, its defense was solid. The Heat held Dallas to just 44-percent shooting and 90 points – 12 under their playoff average. Obviously, they'll need to do a better job on Jason Terry, but there was a reason he was open all night in the opener.
Miami rotated help onto Nowitzki all night, and Terry was free to roam to open areas. The Heat didn't count on him going 13-for-18 from the field, particularly since he has struggled with his shot for much of the playoffs. But he's a clutch shooter, unafraid of the big moment, and if he's hot it puts Miami into a quandary. To help on Dirk or not to help? That is the question.
That said, Game 2 is a critical one for the Heat. A loss would put them in a 2-0 bind, but a victory gives them huge momentum going into Tuesday's Game 3 in Miami. The series very well may hinge on the outcome Sunday.
