AccuScore: Measuring Kidd's impact on the Mavericks

When trying to answer the question of whether this is a good trade for the Dallas Mavericks, you have to weigh the short term against the long term.

Jason Kidd is a lot older than Devin Harris (the principle trade components), so Dallas could be hurting their future by making the trade. However, the goal for the Mavericks is to win the NBA championship this year, even if it means winning fewer games in 2009, 2010, etc.

(Ask Dwyane Wade if he'd rather have his championship ring or have finished fourth in the East last year, this year and next.)

Unlike most very good teams, Dallas is in the bottom third of the league in assists per game. Despite averaging just 20 assists, they still rank sixth in team field-goal percentage. That means they are a team with great perimeter shooters (Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard, Jason Terry) who can nail shots even with a hand in their face.

Nowitzki's forecasted shooting percentage without Kidd against top teams in the West is 44.2 percent, but with Kidd, it increases to 45.0 percent.

AccuScore ran two simulations for Dallas playing home and away against the top teams in the West. We assumed all teams are 100-percent healthy (e.g., Lakers with Andrew Bynum, Spurs with Tony Parker, Suns with Shaquille O'Neal, etc.).

This analysis clearly shows that Dallas is better off with Jason Kidd, at least for this year.

The Mavs go from a slight overall underdog against these top-five teams, winning 46 percent of all simulations, all the way to an even 50 percent (a plus-4 percentage increase).

I wanted to see how Kidd really helps Dallas. This is how the team performed in simulations against the Lakers at home. Kidd is not a high-percentage shooter, so his sub-par shooting does result in the Mavs shooting slightly worse from the field, but barely (just 0.1-percent difference). This reduction is more than offset by improved three-point shooting from the likes of Terry and Nowitzki and more possessions thanks to Kidd's great rebounding from the point guard position.

For more information, visit www.accuscore.com.