Aaron's 499
Who Will Win?
Bowyer
Clint Bowyer: The Childress cars won both races at Talladega last year and will make it three in a row Sunday. But it won't be the driver who's going for his third win of 2011. Clint Bowyer nipped Kevin Harvick at the line in the fall race and will be the man crossing the finish line first on Sunday. Rawhide has run well in the last three races – you see the save he made after making contact with Brian Vickers? – and he'll continue his surge upwards in the standings at Talladega. – Nick Bromberg
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Racers like to say if you put yourself in position to win enough times, eventually it will come. Junior hasn't been in position to win a lot over the last few years, but he has been this season. He insists he's had a top-five car every race so far. The only thing left for him now is to win, and he will. It's time. – Jay Hart
• Busbee: Earnhardt: Why not? Everything is lined up perfectly for Junior this week: he's got the momentum of several strong finishes, he's won five times here, and he's on the closest thing to a home-field NASCAR's got. The big question for Junior will be qualifying; if he can run quickly in qualifying and stay ahead of the pack, he should run up front all day. If not, a Big One could end his day early. – Jay Busbee
Three things to watch for …
Bayne
1. Who will partner with whom? The two-by-two racing that emerged at Daytona will reappear at Talladega. We saw Kurt Busch and Regan Smith work like Brooks and Dunn there. Jeff Gordon and Trevor Bayne were a solid duo as well. Partnerships had nothing to do with which team you were on. Will that be the case Sunday?
2. Will the Joe Gibbs engines last? This will be a recurring theme, at least until the entire organization goes a few races without an issue. There weren't any at Texas, though Denny Hamlin did sound the alarm during the race thinking he had a problem. Ultimately he didn't, but clearly the fear is still there.
3. Keep an eye on the not-so-big names: At Daytona, Paul Menard led 11 laps; the aforementioned Regan Smith was a factor to win until a late wreck took him out of contention; and, of course, Trevor Bayne won. It's always a crapshoot at Talladega, but maybe not as much of one as some might think.
Top storyline
Earnhardt Jr.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. will be the story of this race. Yes, the two-by-two style will be a hot topic, and yes there will be talk about how Trevor Bayne is back to try to win again. But when it comes down to it, Talladega is essentially the clubhouse for the Dale Earnhardt Jr. fan club. All eyes will be trained on No. 88 to see if he can stop that pesky winless streak dead in its tracks at an even 100. – Jay Hart
• If you enjoyed the two-by-two racing at Daytona, get ready: it's coming back. And if you hated the two-by-two racing, sorry: it's coming back. NASCAR drivers have figured that's the best way to get increased speeds on the restrictor plate tracks, and unless NASCAR decides to monkey with the restrictor plate again, expect more of the deal making and down-to-the-wire pairs competition. Trevor Bayne approves. – Jay Busbee
• The storyline has to be the tandem drafting. It seems like a foregone conclusion that it will return in full force as soon as the cars hit the track for the first practice. But will it be as prevalent as it was at Daytona? Yes, the pavement at Talladega is still pretty fresh, but it's not nearly as fresh as Daytona's. Will the little bit of age prevent cars from hooking up for long stretches? Will the slight rules modifications make any difference? Will many still complain about the new fastest way to restrictor plate race? (I think we know the answer to that one.) – Nick Bromberg
From The Source
Kyle Busch: "I expect speeds to be higher because we'll be pushing all the way around. Other than that, it's just Talladega."
