As Texas goes, so goes the Chase

If you want to know who's going to make this year's Chase for the Sprint Cup, look no further than the results of Sunday's Samsung 500. Those finishing in the top 12 have about a 70 percent chance of making the Chase, or at least that's what history tells us.

Since the Chase format was introduced in 2004, an average of seven out of 10 drivers who wound up making the playoffs finished in the top 10 in the April race at Texas Motor Speedway. The number jumps to nine of 12 since NASCAR expanded the field in 2007 to include a dozen drivers.

It's an interesting statistic, but why is Texas such a good barometer of things to come?

"It takes a really, really good race car to win at Texas. That's the bottom line," said Carl Edwards, who swept both races there last year en route to his runner-up finish in the points standings. "You have to have a very powerful engine and you've got to have a great aerodynamics package. Your crew chief and engineer have to have the car put together really well and sometimes you need great fuel mileage on top of that. It takes a lot to win in Texas."

While Edwards used a fuel-mileage strategy to win at Texas in November's Chase race, he'd already proven that he had a powerful enough engine and a strong enough aero package to win outright, which is exactly how he ended up in Texas' victory lane last April.

Still, it's not just that Texas is a random predictor; rather, it's a 1.5-mile track like a lot of other 1.5-mile tracks that dominate the Sprint Cup schedule. And because it's the fourth race of the season at this type of track, presumably everyone has used the previous three intermediate tracks to work out the kinks, meaning what you bring to Texas is probably what you're going to bring the rest of the season.

"I think it's starting to shape up, at least who has the opportunity to be in the Chase," Tony Stewart said. "I'm not sure it's an accurate assessment of who's a championship contender or not. I think by now we're all starting to get an idea of who the contenders to be in the Chase are. I think the next couple weeks still really solidify who those people are."

In fact, we already have a good idea who some of "those people" are. They are, not surprisingly, the usual suspects – Edwards, Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, Clint Bowyer, Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Greg Biffle, Matt Kenseth, Stewart and Kasey Kahne. Each of these drivers showed well at Las Vegas and Atlanta – the two preceding 1.5-mile tracks – or both.

Add them up and you get 13 – one more than will qualify for this year's Chase.

There are others, too, namely Brian Vickers and pole sitter David Reutimann, who so far have shown well on the intermediate tracks. And neither of these lists includes Jeff Burton, a two-time winner at Texas, and Ryan Newman, who's getting better each week.

What's become apparent is that this season there's going to be a bigger scrum than ever before for the final few playoff spots. And considering that last year 10 of the top-12 finishers at Texas wound up making the Chase – the two exceptions were Greg Biffle (39th), who had an engine problem, and Jeff Gordon (43rd), who crashed early in the race – Sunday's race becomes that much more important.

Based on his sweep of both races at Texas last year, Edwards would be the overwhelming favorite this weekend if not for the fact that he's yet to show the same form he had in 2008, when he picked up seven of his nine victories on 1.5-mile tracks.

So far, Edwards has recorded just one top-five finish this season and as a result has lost some of the luster he had prior to the season when many so-called experts were predicting he would dethrone Johnson, the three-time defending series champion.

But in trying to figure out who's going to make the Chase, it's not the likes of Edwards who bears keeping an eye on. The odds that he'll make it are better than good.

Rather, it's drivers who didn't make last year's Chase who are most worth watching. Drivers like Kahne (ninth), Reutimann (11th) and Newman (18th).

Will this year's Chase include some new names?

Odds are we'll find out Sunday.