Chase Chances: Week 8

Seven races down and three to go.

The light at the end of the Chase tunnel is getting brighter and brighter, and for some teams it’s the light shining upon the table on the Waldorf-Astoria stage the first Friday in December.

For most others, it's the headlight on a freight train traveling at full speed right toward them.

Now, the beams focus on Texas as NASCAR's traveling thrill show heads there this weekend.

Favorites

Jimmie Johnson: For all the fools out there (including this writer) who thought Johnson wouldn't be right where he is now – contending for the title – even though he led the points for most of the season, shame on us. Did we not think that Johnson and Knaus had learned their lesson the past two years when their fortunes faded in the home stretch? Now that they've gotten all of their Chase bad luck out of the way, there’s a clear path ahead for this team. Beware: Might Lady Luck finally lose their number?

Matt Kenseth: After nearly every race in the Chase, Kenseth has been critical of his team's performance. He even criticized his own driving after Atlanta. One might think that with all this self-flagellation, the 17 team would be finishing in the top five every week. They're not. Kenseth has just two top-fives in seven races – good, but not good enough. Kenseth knows that his current points lead is precarious and based mainly on the foibles of the others in the Chase. Beware: Each week, Johnson pries back another one of Kenseth's fingers from the ledge Kenseth is hanging on to.

Have a shot

Denny Hamlin: This team has shown remarkable resilience. After three horrible outings, they've delivered two consecutive top-10s. Hamlin has been good at Texas and he won the pole at Phoenix last season. Right now, the best thing this rookie has going for him is that he's not thinking too much about where's he at. Hamlin actually has got a shot at winning the title in his rookie season. Imagine that! Beware: Hamlin, Mike Ford and Co. are up near the top, breathing some pretty thin air. Will they suffocate?

Jeff Burton: The big "Mo" left this team when a valve spring broke in Martinsville. They're still searching for it (momentum, not the valve spring). Eighty-four points is a lot of ground to make up over the next three races, and double-digit place finishes like Burton had at Atlanta aren't going to do it. Burton almost will have to lead a lot of laps and win a race at one of the remaining three events to have any chance at winning the title. He could do it, as he's won at Texas twice and Phoenix once. Burton still is the sentimental favorite with the fans, but time is running out for the veteran. Beware: Smooth sailing ahead, right guys?

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junior's postseason performance – two top-fives and five really mediocre races – is not how to win a championship. Maybe just getting into the Chase was their goal, since they didn't get in last season. Nevertheless, this team has done remarkably well considering it essentially is a single-car team as far as Cup experience goes. It will take a few miracles and some divine intervention for Junior to win the title. Unless he wins at Texas, it most likely will be time for the No. 8 to take a bow and walk off the stage. Beware: Don't embarrass your American "tifosi."

Kevin Harvick: It looks as though Harvick's "champion's luck" might have run out. Or has it? It's extremely difficult to write the No. 29 off yet. The team has been good when it needed to be and has gotten all the right breaks when it needed them, but the decision to skip Happy Hour at Atlanta might have been the defining moment of Harvick's postseason. A repeat of Sunday's race at Atlanta and it will all be over but the crying. Beware: The Busch title is in the bag, Kevin. Concentrate on the Cup side.

Stick a fork in 'em

Jeff Gordon: It's a shame that Gordon's comeback through the field at Atlanta and his sixth-place finish meant nothing but pride for this team. Gordon might be the last driver to win more than two titles in Nextel Cup for some time, given the series' parity and the ever-increasing talent coming into NASCAR. He has taken his ups and downs like a true champion. Time to start thinking about Daytona '07. Beware: Will Gordon sit idly by and not play a role in his driver Johnson's championship battle?

Mark Martin: Martin's attitude throughout the whole Chase has been pretty much, "Hey, we're only here for the beer!" But the Pandora's Box of misfortune opened up at Lowe's, and it's been spewing trouble for this team ever since. Three races, three wrecks. The party is over. It's time for Martin and his friends to head home. Beware: Martin has had more than his share of visits to the infield car center lately. Mark, pull those belts tight when you go out on the track, will ya buddy?

Kasey Kahne: Who can blame Kahne for not having his head in the game? It's got to be hard to be the winningest driver this season in Nextel Cup competition but not have a shot at the title. Kahne is prone to making mental mistakes, which have hurt him several times this season. Chalk it up to thinking about the offseason and perhaps a vacation on the beach. Beware: Eyes on the ball, er … competition, Kasey!

Kyle Busch: You've got to feel a bit sorry for Busch. Even his (and this writer's) beloved Denver Broncos lost on Sunday. Busch has been out of contention since the early laps at Loudon, but give him credit for hanging in there. Just imagine: It's like having to meet your buddies every Sunday evening at Outback Steakhouse and then not getting to eat any of the steak. Beware: Mercifully, it's almost over. But you just might get a win before it's done.

Wild card

Tony Stewart: Smoke is back as the wild card. How dare he win at Atlanta?! Maybe it was because he had the best car at the end and he couldn't help himself. Or maybe it was because he wanted to see how easy it would be to climb the fence in celebration now that he's slimming down. Whatever the reason, Stewart once again is a threat to be Mr. Disruptive in the Chase. Beware: Stewart's got nothing to lose.