Penn's legacy could hinge on Hughes trilogy
It's amazing how a few months can change the perception of an entire career.
Earlier this year, B.J. Penn was considered not only the best lightweight fighter in the world by most, but also the consensus greatest 155-pounder in the short history of the sport.
Entering 2010, Penn had some losses when facing bigger men, a key factor going in Saturday night's fight vs. Matt Hughes when he moves up to welterweight.
But going into his first fight vs. Frankie Edgar in April, Penn was 11-1-1 in his natural weight class, with his most recent blemish coming in 2003.
Outside what should be his best weight class, he's 4-4. You can argue that's kind of a misleading stat since his losses were all to much larger world champion-caliber fighters, two to Georges St. Pierre, one to Hughes and one to Lyoto Machida. And that record includes a welterweight title win in 2004 over Hughes at a time when Hughes was among the more dominant champions in history.
Now, though, Penn is coming off two straight losses to a smaller opponent in Edgar. The first loss to Edgar was considered one of the biggest title upsets in history. After losing by decision the first time, Penn was a heavy favorite going into the rematch, but he came up short again.
He's trying to rebound by moving to a new weight class in which he is very much undersized. He's also fighting for a legacy that will either leave him viewed as one of the sport's all-time greats or someone with top-notch skills, who had a very good career but was ultimately an underachiever.
Penn (15-7-1) is out of any title picture for the first time in his UFC career when he faces a resurgent legend in 37-year-old Hughes (46-7), who's won his last three fights. The battle of two-time world champions is one of two major fights in UFC 123, the company's debut at the Palace in Auburn Hills, Mich., along with a light heavyweight match-up of former champions Quinton Jackson and Machida.
Two key issues between Penn and Hughes are size and youth. On Saturday, Penn said he weighed 165 pounds, the weight at which he expects to enter the cage. While some fighters go up and down between lightweight and welterweight, they are generally larger men who cut from 175 or 180 lbs. to make 155, but would be more comfortable at 170. Penn noted he was coming under scrutiny because adding three to five more pounds would only slow him down. This is a different strategy for Penn, who used to bulk up (sometimes to as much as 191) when facing bigger opponents.
Penn's belief, learned through his Brazilian jiu-jitsu background, is that skill trumps size, even though his fight ledger shows size is an important key. In 2007, he had to be talked into fighting at lightweight. But when Andrei Arlovski was UFC's top heavyweight, he pushed for a match with him. In 2005, he fought Machida when Machida was an unbeaten heavyweight at 224 pounds – and fought the future world champion to a close decision loss.
But today, the welterweight division includes mostly fighters who are mostly 185-195 pounds who cut down to the 170-pound limit. In the highest-profile fight of Penn's career, a fight vs. St. Pierre on Jan. 31, 2009, it was clear that the size difference was an obstacle too big to overcome.
"I think if I feel good and everything goes well, yeah, maybe I'll fight a few more fighters [at welterweight]," he said. "Whatever, 155, 170, you know, a lot of people are doing it. I'm not the only guy. I don't think that [fighting in both weight classes] is out of the question."
Hughes will likely weigh-in around 170 on Friday, but by fight time should be in the 180- to 185-pound range. Penn, who turns 32 in two weeks, is a little more than five years younger. The two have split their two previous fights, and Penn goes in as an 8-to-5 favorite to what will likely be their final meeting.
"B.J. beat me kind of so easy the first time (in 2004), and the second match was really a tough match for both of us," said Hughes. "He was whooping me early in the fight, and I ended up finishing late in the fight."
Penn's made some minor changes in training, leaving his home in Hilo on the big island of Hawaii, where he had his camps for his last several fights. Instead he trained in Honolulu, to get away from outside influences. He's also taken to having acupuncture treatments for the first time in his career.
"As far as changing my camp, yeah, I think I trained harder," said Penn. "I started running again and doing roadwork and trying to push my different energy systems and do a lot of things. But that's not the only reason why the [second Edgar] fight went the way it did. You know, you've got to improve everything with your boxing and your takedowns and your wrestling."
In hindsight, the problem was an inability to deal with the speed of Edgar, highlighted by Edgar's great conditioning. It threw off Penn's entire game. Fightmetric.com recently pointed out two notable Penn statistics, both of which worked against him in his last two fights: When Penn's opponents can't take him down, they won't beat him standing. He's 10-0 in fights where his opponent never landed a takedown. When the opponents can take him down, he's a 5-7-1 fighter.
When Penn's opponents can make him miss standing, they frustrate him and that is what leads to the takedowns. In the two Edgar fights, Penn connected on 27 percent and 25 percent of his strikes respectively. The last few years, the only other times he's connected on less than 50 percent of his strikes were his two losses to St. Pierre and the loss in fight No. 2 to Hughes. They also are the only fights he's lost since his 2006 UFC return.
"I think what went wrong in those [two bouts with Edgar] was that I didn't win those fights, and I felt very disappointed but besides that I don't know," said Penn. "All I can really do is step back and say that Edgar did a great job, and he's a champion right now. And I want to get back to the top of the lightweight division, and I want to be champion again."
