Is the window of opportunity for Diego Simeone's Atletico Madrid about to close?
Between 2010 and 2014, Atletico Madrid won seven major trophies at a rate of at least one per season. Having been knocked out of the Copa del Rey and virtually eliminated from the La Liga title race this season, the Champions League represents Atleti’s sole remaining chance of extending that record.
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It all hinges on Tuesday's round of 16 second leg against a Bayer Leverkusen side that nearly played Atletico off the pitch at the BayArena last month. In the first leg, the defending La Liga champions had difficulty coping with the intensity of Leverkusen’s high-pressing game in a 1-0 defeat. Afterwards, Atletico manager Diego Simeone admitted his team had barely "escaped alive."
But while the Argentine manager has remained upbeat about Atleti’s prospects of bouncing back from the deficit, there are signs that his world-beating team – which came within 90 seconds of winning the Champions League just last season – may be running out of steam.
Atletico has but one win in its last six matches and has alarmingly only scored one goal in its last four. Like Leverkusen, Simeone’s team plays an energized, high-pressing style that’s incredibly demanding physically. Sustaining it over successive seasons has undoubtedly been taxing for the players.
Many of the team’s core group – Gabi, Juanfran, Tiago, Miranda, Fernando Torres – are now on the wrong side of 30. It’s not clear how many more seasons they can sustain under the demanding ways of "El Cholo."
Further complicating matters is Atletico’s habit of selling its best players every season. Losing Diego Costa and his 36 goals in all competitions has proved to be the team’s biggest obstacle to overcome this season. Mario Mandzukic, Antoine Griezmann and Torres have done a passable job, but they haven’t been able to match Costa’s goal production from last year.
This summer, Atleti will likely lose Koke and Arda Turan, and possibly Griezmann or Mandzukic. However, Simeone and Atletico have shown to be nothing if not capable of replacing the strikers they sell. Having lost Sergio Aguero, Radamel Falcao and Costa over the past few seasons, they’ve always managed to find good replacements. Already, there are rumors Edinson Cavani may be on his way.
If Simeone remains, he’ll inevitably manage to pull a rabbit out of the hat once again. The question is how long will Atletico be able to keep hold of him? In the past couple of seasons, he’s become one of the most sought-after managers in the world. Simeone could virtually walk into any number of top-level jobs. Will he choose to remain and watch his team get parted out again if the millions of Manchester City come calling?
Despite a dominating performance in the first leg, Leverkusen holds only a slim lead heading into the second. The Vicente Calderon is an incredibly daunting place for away teams and Simeone has called for "90 minutes of deafening noise inside the ground" from the home supporters.
Atletico hasn’t given up a goal at home in European competition for over a year. But the real challenge will be getting its misfiring strike force to find the back of the net against a Leverkusen side that’s currently fourth in the Bundesliga and hasn’t conceded a single goal in its last five matches.
Even with Tiago and Diego Godin suspended and the crowd behind Atletico, Simeone will fancy his chances of overturning what, at 1-0, is still a manageable deficit. And provided it gets past Leverkusen, his Atleti team is still capable, on its day, of beating just about any of the other teams remaining in this competition.
It’s just possible that El Cholo may have one more trick up his sleeve.
