Toronto Maple Leafs’ defiant win streak: For real or fooling us again?

There is perhaps no greater motivator in the NHL this season than defiance.

The Detroit Red Wings were going to lose a coach and age out of the playoffs; instead, they lead the Atlantic. The Winnipeg Jets and Calgary Flames were written off in the West; they’re on the bubble. The Florida Panthers play to empty seats and might fill them in the postseason. Even the Buffalo Sabres have suddenly shifted their tank into reverse.

Then there are the Toronto Maple Leafs.

A team that hit rock bottom, had sand kicked in their faces as they were defecated upon, before brushing themselves off, ignoring those that maligned them and beginning the long climb back.

Nov. 15, 2014: The Leafs lose 6-2 to the Buffalo Sabres, then the worst team in hockey. The story after the game was that Phil Kessel snubbed a reporter. Thus began the debate about his leadership. Again.

Nov. 18, 2014: The Leafs lose 9-2 to the Nashville Predators on home ice.  Calls to fire coach Randy Carlyle were deafening. They were a festering dumpster fire and the worst kind of mess. It very much felt like we were one more loss away from Brendan Shanahan sitting down with the media holding a glass of scotch and shrugging as he says “I got nuthin’.”

Nov.  20, 2014: The Leafs post a 5-2 win over a very good Tampa Bay Lightning team. A win! New momentum! Everything’s coming up Randy! Oh, wait … the story after the game is that the team didn’t raise their sticks to salute the fans that had been booing and jeering and hissing and throwing jerseys on the ice and generally calling for the team to be demolished and rebuilt. HOW DARE THESE SELFISH MILLIONAIRES HAVE HUMAN FEELINGS.

Since then, the Leafs have lost two games: One to the Pittsburgh Penguins in overtime and one to the New Jersey Devils on home ice, in one of those “our opponent has everyone injured and so this should be easy and oh crap we just lost” trap games.

Including the Lightning game, the Leafs are on a 9-1-1 streak, which is an appropriate number to follow the absolute crime of giving up nine goals on home ice.

They’ve outscored opponents 43-25 during that stretch; and with 39 points in 30 games, they’re currently seven points up on the second wild card and two points away from the top of the division.

Repeating our top story: Two points away from the top of the division.

It’s a hell of a roll that naturally has the few, the proud, the Randy Carlyle supporters participating in that grand Toronto tradition of the December victory lap. But the essential question remains:

Are you buying into this Leafs team? Or is that other one, the feckless mess of ill-fitting parts that was destined for an off-season reimagining, the team you believe they are?

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Let’s begin with the superficially obvious: The Leafs were pissed off and embarrassed after the Predators loss. In themselves. In the media. In their supporters.

It manifested in that decision not to salute the fans … ahem, sorry, in a “change in their routine.” What could have been another petty tangent from the media ended up being a rallying point for the team. Whatever “us against the world” mentality crept into the Toronto room, it’s lingered there for 11 games.

Nine of the 11 games in the streak were played on home ice. They won eight of them. Prior to that, they were a middling 6-5 on home ice. Something changed, and they’ve taken advantage of their home ice.

But it’s not just attitudinal. The fact is that the Leafs were set up better this season than last from a personnel standpoint, and that’s played a role here too.

Which is to say they shockingly don’t miss Colton Orr’s six minutes on the ice and seven in the box every game.

Mike Santorelli (22 points, plus-17), Daniel Winnik (12 points, plus-11), Richard Panik (six goals, and a shrewd fourth-line pickup in-season) have all made this forward group better. So did Leo Komarov before his injury.

Speaking of injuries: Roman Polak has missed the entirety of this streak. He’s their second-leading ice time defenseman. But his loss hasn’t been humbling.

And speaking of defense: Dion Phaneuf has actually been asked to do less this season. From Jonas Siegel of TSN:

He’s had the lowest offensive zone start percentage of any defender in hockey a year ago – 22.7 per cent – but that number has risen closer to 30 per cent this year. His defensive zone starts, meanwhile, have dropped nearly five percentage points to less than 32 per cent.

That's meant just a few less onerous shifts slogging it out in the defensive zone against the likes of Crosby, Stamkos and Ovechkin and more opportunity for offence (though Phaneuf has just six even-strength points so far).

Phaneuf still absorbs the lion's share of matchups against opposing top lines, but the presence of Roman Polak as a secondary option has helped ease that burden slightly. Prior to going down with a strained left knee, the 28-year-old Polak was able to absorb some of the tougher minutes from Phaneuf and perform adequately in doing so.

His partnership with Cody Franson’s helped too.

All of this is in support of the team’s top offensive players like Hockey’s Goofy Older Brother Phil Kessel, who has nine points in the 11 games. Amazingly, his interactions with the media haven’t hit the front page during it. What a wild coincidence.

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Of course, it helps that Kessel has a 15.6 shooing percentage. And Tyler Bozak has a 15.9. And Peter Holland has a 17.9. And Panik has a 26.1.

Their PDO, which combines shooting and save percentage, is 101.7 for the season overall and their on-ice shooting percentage at 5-on-5 is 9.4. Neither of these would seem to be sustainable.

And while their possession numbers are improved over last season, they’re 28th in corsi percentage (36.6) when leading by a goal and 26th when trailing by one (48.4).

This speaks to the all-or-nothing nature of this beast: They’re 13-6 in games in which they’ve won by two or three goals. In one-goal games, they’re 5-3-3.

This makes sense when you look at the second period scoring for the Leafs, where they have a goal differential of plus-14. They're also 12-0-0 when leading after two periods.

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So do you buy into these Leafs?

Toronto fans, god bless them, are enjoying the ride. But they’ve been down this road before with Randy Carlyle teams. Last season, in fact.

From Jan. 12 through Feb. 1 earlier this year, the Toronto Maple Leafs won nine games, lost one in overtime and lost a clunker to the Dallas Stars. Yes, that’s right: 9-1-1. Make that 11-2-1 overall before the Olympic break hit.

They’d end up with 84 points, nine off the last wild card spot.

So this streak is great. It’s wonderful. It’s a chance for the franchise to shake off the stink of death for a while, and a chance for Team Randy to shake their pom-poms while saying “told ya so!”

But in the end, this is a 90-point team. Does that get you a playoff spot? Potentially, given the general underwhelming nature of the conference.

It all comes down to how long Toronto wants to keep this streak rolling, and how they react when the Leafs do what it is leafs always do annually, which is plummet back to earth.