Puck Daddy’s guide to 2016 NCAA men’s hockey tournament
In recent years the big story about the NCAA tournament has been the fact that there wasn't much separating the best team in the field from, say, the sixth- or seventh-best team. Or perhaps even more. Which is why the national champions in the last three seasons have been the Nos. 15, 3, and 15 seeds, respectively. Almost anyone can win.
But this year there's a potentially bigger storyline in play: Whether the No. 13 seed and Hockey East champion Northeastern Huskies can continue the monumental run they've enjoyed since Thanksgiving.
How monumental that run been? Well, it involved running through the Nos. 12, 5, and 8 teams in the nation to win that title, but obviously began a long, long time before that. They started the year 1-11-2 and looking an awful lot like one of the worst teams in the nation, as long as you didn't look too closely.
Since Game No. 14, however, they've lost just twice, once to a very good Boston College team (that quite narrowly) and the other to a pretty good Boston University team (very slightly less narrowly). Their three ties similarly came against juggernauts: BC, Quinnipiac, and Lowell. All other challengers, they basically laid to waste.
Their record since Nov. 27 is 21-2-3. Here's why there was such a huge disparity:
This is pretty simple: Northeastern has always been a dominant possession team, but was having some fairly rotten luck shooting the puck, and would have gotten better goaltending from literally anyone in college hockey. And probably from most goalies in Junior A. Having a PDO in all situations of 92.8 is basically impossible over the long term, regardless of team quality, so a team as good as Northeastern struggling here was inexplicable. That situation was always going to turn around, but no one could have guessed it would go like this.
But when you're losing that much, and that badly, people just aren't going to look past the results. That's just how sports works. Coach Jim Madigan, facing another disappointing season, felt the pressure, but he also knew that his team was clearly better than this.
"Well, 1-11-2, I trusted [the process],” he said after his team won its first conference title since 1988, when he was an assistant coach a few years out of school. “I think people from the outside were wondering what the hell I was talking about. But we had faith and believability in the group. The record we didn't think was indicative of where we were. … It looks like the sky is falling, but we did have a good group that believed in the process, and we just stuck to it, and that's why I said it's all those young men in that locker room."
Not only was Northeastern in rough shape in terms of wins and losses, but also on the lineup chart. Top-pairing defenseman only played 21 games this year, and none of them came before Jan. 8. And Kevin Roy, who entered the season as college hockey's leading active scorer (124 points in 121 games), started the year ice cold with no goals and only five assists in 11 games, got hurt just before Thanksgiving and missed almost two months.
But Darou came back and the team went 19-1-1 with him in the lineup. And Roy came back to score 10-10-20 in 17 games, which is much more in line with his historical production. In fact, Roy has 5-4-9 in his last six, and was a huge reason why Northeastern surged through the playoffs.
Further, Roy's brother Derick began the year as the team's No. 1 goaltender and had an .821 save percentage through the team's first seven games. He only played twice more after that, and for good reason. Instead, Madigan turned to freshman Ryan Ruck, and has been rewarded many times over for the decision. He's .912 for the year, but .922 since the team's improbable run began. That makes a huge difference.
None of this is to make excuses for the Huskies or anything like that. Kevin Roy or Dustin Darou wouldn't have made the difference in most of the season's early games because the goaltending in particular was so inexcusably bad. They were where they were at that time, but they always have been what they are now.
Well, sorta kinda. No one's capable of sustaining a 105.6 PDO for too long, just as no one is capable of being 92.8 for too long. At some point, Northeastern is going to stop shooting 13.5 percent. But they only need to do it four more times.
Worryingly, the Huskies now have a game the dead-serious and looking-to-prove-something Fighting Hawks of North Dakota, which is a very tough draw. Cam Johnson (.935) is a goalie who's perfectly capable of shutting down any club. And the rest of the Fighting Hawks' attack (3.55 goals per game) is capable of putting four-plus past anyone.
But that was also true of Boston College (3.87 goals per game) and Thatcher Demko (.935), and Northeastern dispatched them with relative ease last Friday. That's further true of UMass Lowell (3.08 goals per game) and Kevin Boyle (.935) and the Huskies snuck by them on Saturday as well.
North Dakota well and truly earned that three-seed, and Northeastern theoretically could turn back into a pumpkin at any time.
But hell, I wouldn't wanna face 'em.
MEET THE FIELD
No. 1 Quinnipiac University Bobcats (29-3-7)
How they got here: They won the ECAC regular- and postseason titles. Three losses on the season tells the story pretty clearly. They've long been one of the three or four best possession teams in the country, year in and year out. This season they finally got the goaltending to go with it, and you see the result.
Key stat: The Bobcats take the third-most shots per game in the country (almost 35 a night), and allow just 25.1. That's the largest advantage per game of any team left standing.
Top player: Junior forward Sam Anas led the team in scoring for the third straight year, but he's also questionable for the weekend, having gotten injured in the ECAC semifinal.
NHL draft picks: 2 (New York Islanders' Devon Toews; Arizona's Connor Clifton.)
Quick fact: This is an experienced team. Only three freshmen have played more than 30 games this year, including only one defenseman.
No. 2 St. Cloud State University Huskies (31-8-1)
How they got here: They won the NCHC postseason title. This team absolutely crushed its out-of-conference schedule, going 10-2. That kind of thing is so crucial these days, because it buoys the entire conference's strength of schedule and helps improve everyone's position.
Key stat: This is a team that gets things done by committee, as seven players came in with more than 30 points. That's a huge number, and a huge reason why the Huskies had the second-best offense in the country this year.
Top player: Tough to choose between Kalle Kossila (52 points) and Charlie Lindgren (.927). So let's just say it's one of those two guys. They're both really good.
NHL draft picks: 3 (Buffalo's Judd Peterson and Will Borgen; Colorado's Ben Storm.)
Quick fact:Last year, St. Cloud was a 49.6 percent possession team, pretty middle-of-the-road nationally. This year they've improved somewhat, at 50.8 percent, thanks to an improved offense.
No. 3 University of North Dakota Fighting Hawks (30-6-4)
How they got here: They earned an at-large bid and won the NCHC regular-season title. This was a team that was dominant all year, even when star goalie Cam Johnson got hurt three games into the season. In his stead, backup Matt Hrynkiw was just a .911 goaltender, but it didn't matter; the offense carried the team to a 9-2-1 record regardless.
Key stat: The club's top line — the CBS Line — of Drake Caggiula, Brock Boeser, and Nick Schmaltz scored a combined 54 goals. That was nearly 40 percent of the team's total.
Top player: Probably have to go with Boeser, who went 25-26-51 in 38 games as a freshman. That was second nationally among rookies, with a comfortable gap.
NHL draft picks: 11 (Chicago's Nick Schmaltz and Luke Johnson; Vancouver's Brock Boeser; St. Louis's Austin Poganski; Winnipeg's Tucker Poolman; Los Angeles's Paul LaDue; Ottawa's Christian Wolanin; Anaheim's Keaton Thompson; Washington's Shane Gersich; Florida's Chris Wilkie; San Jose's Gage Ausmus.)
Quick fact: North Dakota is a national-best 21-5-2 (.786) since announcing the Fighting Hawks nickname. Just saying.
No. 4 Providence College Friars (27-6-4)
How they got here: They earned an at-large bid and tied for the Hockey East regular-season title. The reigning national champs didn't miss a beat this season despite the loss of arguably the best goalie in school history. In fact, replacement Nick Ellis actually improved on the goaltending numbers.
Key stat: Mark Jankowski is the first 40-point scorer on a Friars team since 2002-03. Before this strong season he had just 70 points in 110 games.
Top player: It's gotta be Nick Ellis, a .935 goalie who played 92 percent of the team's minutes and was inexplicably left off the final five for the Mike Richter award. Doesn't begin to make sense.
NHL draft picks: 8 (Calgary's Mark Jankowski and John Gilmour; St. Louis's Jake Walman; Washington's Brian Pinho; Winnipeg's Erik Foley; Buffalo's Anthony Florentino; Anaheim's Steven Ruggiero; Montreal's Hayden Hawkey.)
Quick fact: Sophomore defenseman Jake Walman is out for the year after getting shoulder surgery last week. Before his initial injury back in December, he looked like a potential Hobey winner. Providence is 7-3 without him this year.
No. 5 Boston College Eagles (26-7-5)
How they got here: They also earned an at-large bid and tied for the Hockey East regular-season title. You might say this is the best team in Hockey East this season, but in recent years it's developed quite a penchant for getting bounced out of the conference tournament before its time.
Key stat: BC had the third-largest goal margin in the country at plus-71, thanks in large part to its fourth-in-the-nation 88 percent PK. It still conceded 20 power play goals over the whole season, but that's because it took the fourth-most penalties in the country as well.
Top player: Thatcher Demko finished all non-NCAA tournament play in a five-way(!) tie for third in save percentage, at .935. He also led the country with 10 shutouts. The all-time national record is 12.
NHL draft picks: 12 (New Jersey's Miles Wood, Steve Santini, and JD Dudek; Minnesota's Alex Tuch and Adam Gilmour; Boston's Ryan Fitzgerald; Ottawa's Colin White; Washington's Zach Sanford; Florida's Ian McCoshen; Buffalo's Chris Brown; Chicago's Chris Calnan; Vancouver's Thatcher Demko.)
Quick fact: The team has recently started deploying forwards in “pairs” instead of “lines” and using the third guys more or less interchangeably. The pair of Ryan Fitzgerald and Colin White combined for 41 goals. Zach Sanford and Alex Tuch scored 28. Austin Cangelosi and Miles Wood scored 28 as well. Everyone else on the team scored 37.
No. 6 University of Denver Pioneers (23-9-6)
How they got here: They earned an at-large bid. The Pios finished second in the NCHC regular season, despite middling numbers both offensively and defensively. They are, however, a 53.5 percent possession team, and in a conference that good, that goes a long way.
Key stat: Denver's 17.1 percent power play is equal to its opponents' 17.1 percent power play against. I don't think it gets more middle-of-the-road than that.
Top player: Not much separating their entire top line. But since freshman Dylan Gambrell had 43 points to Danton Heinen's and Trevor Moore's 42 apiece, I guess it's technically him.
NHL draft picks: 5 (Boston's Danton Heinen; Colorado's Will Butcher; Ottawa's Quentin Shore; Anaheim's Troy Terry; Florida's Evan Cowley.)
Quick fact:This team only has two losses in its last 22 games, but went 0-1-1 last weekend against the brass of the NCHC.
No. 7 University of Michigan Wolverines (24-7-5)
How they got here: They won the Big Ten postseason title.
Key stat: They score the most goals per game (4.89) and allowed the 23rd-most (3.0), so literally anything can happen in their games and you're not allowed to be surprised!
Top player: Freshman Kyle Connor led the nation in goals (35) and points (69), and was fourth in assists. They're trying to think of reasons not to give him the Hobey Baker for some reason. I don't get it, gang.
NHL draft picks: 12 (Minnesota's Nolan De Jong and Nicholas Boka; Winnipeg's Kyle Connor; Colorado's JT Compher; Chicago's Tyler Motte; Columbus's Zach Werenski; New York Rangers' Boo Nieves; Philadelphia's Cooper Marody; Florida's Michael Downing; Arizona's Brendan Warren; Dallas's Joseph Cecconi; Edmonton's Zach Nagelvoort.)
Quick fact: The reason they can win or lose any game and not have it be surprising is that their goaltending is really bad. Steve Racine is the starter, and he only has a .908 save percentage in his last 10 games. That's bad.
No. 8 UMass Lowell River Hawks (24-9-5)
How they got here: They earned an at-large bid. The River Hawks only lost three games all season when they had last change, but one of them was the Hockey East championship. They'll have last change on Saturday.
Key stat: Lowell tends to lose games on special teams difficulties. Its power play is running at just 15.7 percent since New Year's. That's a problem because first-round opponent Yale has only conceded twice on 55 power plays in that time.
Top player: Goaltender Kevin Boyle is a finalist for the Mike Richter award with a .935 save percentage on the season. He's only allowed 46 goals in 37 games at 5-on-5.
NHL draft picks: 1 (Edmonton's Evan Campbell)
Quick fact: Leading scorer CJ Smith has 3-3-6 in his last six games, all of which were against NCAA tournament teams. He's a difference-maker.
No. 9 Boston University Terriers (21-12-5)
How they got here: They earned an at-large bid. This was a weirdly up-and-down team all year, but when they were on they could play with anyone. A big part of that was home ice, because they went 14-2-2 at home and 7-10-3 on the road.
Key stat: They've played more than half their games (20 of 38) against tournament teams, the most of anyone in the field. They went 9-8-3 in those games.
Top player: I think it's probably Matt Grzelcyk. He's the team's No. 1 minutes-munching defenseman and scored 22 points in 26 games. BU was 15-7-4 when he was in the lineup, and 6-5-1 without.
NHL draft picks: 9 (Boston's Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson and Matt Grzelcyk; San Jose's Danny O'Regan; Minnesota's Jordan Greenway; New York Islanders' Doyle Somerby; Ottawa's Robbie Ballairgeon; Calgary's Brandon Hickey; Tampa Bay's John MacLeod; Pittsburgh's Sean Maguire.)
Quick fact: Coming off concussion issues that cost him all of last season, Maguire started the year pretty shaky at just .877 in his first five games. Since then, he's .933. But that includes a no-good playoff run of .867 in his last four games.
No. 10 Yale Bulldogs (19-8-4)
How they got here: They earned an at-large bid. Strong team defense was the order of the day, because they conceded just 1.74 goals per game. The problem is that their 2.71 goals a night on the other end was only tied for 26th nationally.
Key stat: Yale has a 94.3 percent penalty kill this season. That's a fair sight better than their nation-leading 90.1 percent last year. In fact, 94.3 percent is the best number by any team in at least the last four seasons.
Top player: Alex Lyon has a .938 save percentage. And that's actually down from .939 last season. Good lord.
NHL draft picks: 2 (Chicago's John Hayden; Boston's Rob O'Gara)
Quick fact: This team got bounced in the ECAC quarterfinals in a sweep by Dartmouth, despite outshooting the Big Green 98-55 in two games. They've also played just three games in the last 28 days, and lost all of them. Who knows with these guys?
No. 11 Harvard Crimson (19-10-7)
How they got here: They earned an at-large bid. They only went 1-8-1 against teams that also earned an at-large bid, and 18-2-3 against everyone else. I'd be worried about that.
Key stat: The entire top line all have at least 32 points, led by Jimmy Vesey. No one else had more than 21. Depth is an issue.
Top player: Vesey has had two consecutive almost-Hobey-worthy seasons. He's fifth in the nation in points per game, and third in goals per game. He's no Kyle Connor, but hey, not even Jack Eichel put up Connor-level numbers.
NHL draft picks: 8 (Boston's Ryan Donato and Wiley Sherman; Nashville's Jimmy Vesey and Tyler Moy; New Jersey's Alex Kerfoot; Buffalo's Sean Malone; San Jose's Colin Blackwell; Philadelphia's Merrick Madsen.)
Quick fact: Speaking of Madsen, his .933 is really good, but he already lost to first-round opponent BC this year, and didn't look great doing it.
No. 12 University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish (19-18-1)
How they got here: They earned an at-large bid. They're just 1-5 in their last six games, but they ran into the end-of-season buzz saw of games at Providence, games hosting BU (the only team they beat, in a split), and games hosting Northeastern. Tough bounces there, but you gotta play the schedule in front of you.
Key stat: This is a team that just has a lot of depth. Four guys with at least 30 points. Three more with at least 20, three after that with at least 17. When you can get that kind of production through the lineup, you're usually in pretty good shape.
Top player: In theory it's Mario Lucia, who has 110 points in 150 career games, but in actual practice it's probably Anders Bjork or Jake Evans (33 points each this year, compared with Lucia's 24). Or maybe it's Cal Petersen.
NHL draft picks: 9 (Buffalo's Connor Hurley and Cal Petersen; Boston's Anders Bjork; Montreal's Jake Evans; Washington Thomas DiPauli; Minnesota's Mario Lucia; New York Rangers' Steven Fogarty; Chicago's Dennis Gilbert; Florida's Joe Wegwerth.)
Quick fact:Petersen kinda laid an egg in the quarterfinals against Northeastern, conceding eight goals on 55 shots. Before that, he was a .932 goalie.
No. 13 Northeastern University Huskies (22-13-5)
How they got here: They won the Hockey East postseason title. You read all the other stuff already.
Key stat: Want a mind-blower? Their 13.5 percent shooting since Thanksgiving weekend is only tied for second nationally, with St. Cloud. Michigan was at 13.6 percent. Bonkers.
Top player: Kevin Roy was held scoreless in 11 of his 28 games this season (39.3 percent). In the entire rest of his career, he was held off the scoresheet in just 29 of 99 (29.3 percent). Weird year.
NHL draft picks: 6 (Vancouver's Adam Gaudette; Chicago's Dylan Sikura; Anaheim's Kevin Roy; St. Louis's Sam Kurker; Boston's Matt Benning; Carolina's Brendan Collier.)
Quick fact:Even including the atrocious first month and a half, Northeastern's power play is seventh-best in the country at 23.5 percent.
No. 14 University of Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs (18-15-5)
How they got here: They earned an at-large bid. See Monday's column for more information about how they're a perfectly good team that had a perfectly good year.
Key stat: Of all the teams in the tournament, they tied with Yale for fewest goals per game (2.71). However, they allowed 0.21 per night more. Not a ton of margin for error there.
Top player: Tony Cameranesi is the only guy on the team to break the 30-point barrier, so I guess it has to be him by default.
NHL draft picks: 4 (Toronto's Tony Cameranesi and Dominic Toninato; Anaheim's Andy Welinski; Minnesota's Carson Soucy.)
Quick fact: Goaltender Kasimir Kaskisuo is just a reliably good netminder: .919 for his career, .922 this season. That's better than the national average, so you can't ask for a whole lot more.
No. 15 Ferris State University Bulldogs (19-14-6)
How they got here: They won the WCHA postseason title. Other than that, they were a just-okay WCHA team, which is to say a not-very-good team overall. They were just 13-11-4 in conference, but swept through four games in the playoffs.
Key stat: No team in the tournament had a narrower average goal margin than the Bulldogs. They scored 2.67 a game but allowed 2.54.
Top player: Darren Smith has been a good goalie all year (.923), but he turned it on at the end. Once he hit the playoffs, he was .948, allowing just five goals on 91 shots. That'll do it.
NHL draft picks: 1 (New York Islanders' Kyle Schempp.)
Quick fact: They're the second-worst possession team in the tournament at 50.7 percent, ahead of only Notre Dame (50.1 percent). That they only ended up plus-48 in full-strength shot attempts in the WCHA is troubling.
No. 16 Rochester Institute of Technology Tigers (18-14-6)
How they got here: They won the Atlantic Hockey postseason title. They finished an unimpressive fifth in the regular season but knocked off Robert Morris, the actual good team in the conference, in the title game, 7-4.
Key stat: They finished 0-5-1 and were outscored 25-35 in non-conference play against a fairly soft schedule of Clarkson, St. Lawrence, Bowling Green, Colgate (twice), and BC. That doesn't portend good things for their date with Quinnipiac.
Top player: Josh Mitchell had 30 assists this year. That's tied for seventh nationally. But he only scored six goals. That's gotta win the reverse Cy Young.
NHL draft picks: 0
Quick fact: The team's season-long save percentage is .891. Saturday could get ugly.
FROZEN FOUR PREDICTION
Gimme Providence, Quinnipiac, Northeastern, and Denver.
SCHEDULE (all times Eastern)
Friday
2 p.m.: No. 2 North Dakota vs. No. 13 Northeastern; Cincinnati; ESPNU
4:30 p.m.: No. 4 Providence College vs. No. 14 Minnesota-Duluth; Worcester, Mass.; ESPN3
5:30 p.m.: No. 7 Michigan vs. No. 12 Notre Dame; Cincinnati; ESPNU
8 p.m.: No. 5 Boston College vs. No. 11 Harvard; Worcester; ESPNU
Saturday
3 p.m.: No. 5 St. Cloud vs. No. 15 Ferris State; St. Paul, Minn.; ESPN News
4 p.m.: No. 1 Quinnipiac vs. No. 16 RIT; Albany, N.Y.; ESPNU
6 p.m.: Midwest regional final; Cincinnati; ESPN2
6:30 p.m.: No. 9 Boston University vs. No 14 Denver; St. Paul; ESPNU
7:30 p.m.: No. 8 UMass Lowell vs. No. 10 Yale; Albany; ESPN3
9 p.m.: Northeast regional final; Worcester; ESPNU
Sunday
5 p.m.: West regional final; St. Paul; ESPNU
7:30 p.m.: East regional final; Albany; ESPNU
Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist and also covers the NCAA for College Hockey News. His email is here and his Twitter is here.
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