What to Watch, Week 14: Championship Week is finally here
Championship week is finally here and instead of just picking a handful of games to profile, we’re going to profile all of the conference title games because almost all of them have some bearing on both the College Football Playoff and the New Year’s Six Bowls.
With that said, here’s what to watch in Week 14 (games are Saturday unless otherwise noted):
American Athletic Conference Championship: No. 22 Temple at No. 19 Houston, noon ET: Temple will be playing for its first conference championship in 48 years, but it will have its hands full against a Houston team that is not only gunning for a conference title, but also eyeing the Group of Five’s spot in the New Year’s Six Bowl.
Houston’s hopes are tied to quarterback Greg Ward Jr., who has been the reason the Cougars are 11-1. Ward has completed 69.3 percent of his passes for 2,502 yards with 16 touchdowns and five interceptions. He’s also rushed for 893 yards and 17 touchdowns, which ranks second among quarterbacks.
In last year’s meeting between these two teams, Temple was able to contain Ward’s running game, but he threw for 268 yards and two touchdowns.
Ward was very good in last week's win against Navy, which got the Cougars into the title game.
If Temple is going to have a chance in this game, it’s going to need some balanced offense from running back Jahad Thomas and quarterback P.J. Walker. Walker has struggled in the passing game at times this year, and last year threw three interceptions against the Cougars.
In Temple’s past four games, Walker has thrown eight touchdown passes compared to just two interceptions.
Houston and Temple are the two highest ranked Group of Five teams in the current College Football Playoff standings, and barring something wacky, the winner of this game should be in a marquee bowl this postseason.
Conference USA Championship: Southern Miss at Western Kentucky, noon ET: Many expected Western Kentucky to be playing for the conference title, but Southern Miss, the lovable underdog, was an unexpected choice.
The Golden Eagles had four wins in the past three seasons combined coming into the 2015 season. Four. Southern Miss comes into this championship game with nine wins and perhaps the envy of the Hilltoppers. For all Southern Miss’ recent woes, it does own five C-USA titles, which is more than any other school. The Hilltoppers are searching for their first conference title as a member of the FBS.
The easy storyline in this game is the high-powered WKU offense against the Golden Eagles’ stingy defense. Southern Miss’ defense allows 351 yards per game, which is the best in the conference, and ranks 36th nationally in scoring defense.
However, the Golden Eagles took that top defensive title last week from Marshall, which was owned by WKU quarterback Brandon Doughty, who became the third player in NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision history to throw for 4,000 yards and 40 passing touchdowns in back-to-back seasons.
But Southern Miss quarterback Nick Mullens is no slouch either. He has thrown for 3,964 passing yards, 35 touchdowns and just nine interceptions this season while completing 64.2 percent of his passes.
If you like points, this will be the game to watch.
SEC Championship: No. 18 Florida vs. No. 2 Alabama, 4 p.m. ET : The biggest question heading into this contest will be: Can Florida score?
It seems like a simple enough question, but the answer has become more and more complex the more quarterback Treon Harris has led the Gator offense onto the field. Against Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Florida Atlantic and Florida State, the Gators averaged a little more than 12 points. And the offense failed to score during its regular season finale against Florida State.
It’s not just Harris, the kicking game has been atrocious, too. Florida missed a field goal and had one blocked against the Seminoles. The only thing working for the Gators is the running game. Kelvin Taylor had 136 yards in the loss to FSU, but it wasn’t enough to offset Harris’ poor performance.
Florida should see a little bit of an offensive boost from the reinstatement of leading receiver Demarcus Robinson, who missed the FSU game for a violation of team rules.
Meanwhile, it’s going to have to figure out a way to put up some points against an Alabama defense that leads the SEC in pretty much every defensive category and has allowed just 41 total points in its last four games.
And the Florida defense is going to have to stop Derrick Henry, the Heisman frontrunner, who ran a school-record 46 times for 271 yards in the win against Auburn last week. He set Alabama’s single-season rushing mark with 1,797 yards. He leads the nation in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns with 22, which also is a school record.
Last week, the Florida defense did an admirable job of slowing down Florida State’s star rusher Dalvin Cook until the fourth quarter when the dam broke. At that point, with little offense and little rest in between series’, the defense was worn down. Cook took advantage and rushed for 150 of his 183 yards in the fourth quarter.
Florida is a 17-point underdog, the largest point spread since the Gators were favored by 24 against Arkansas in 1995.
Mountain West Championship: Air Force at San Diego State, 7:30 p.m. ET: The conference title game isn’t the most ideal place to break in a new quarterback, but that’s the situation San Diego State is in this weekend after starter Maxwell Smith suffered a torn ACL in the first quarter of last week’s win against Nevada.
Redshirt freshman Christian Chapman will be the new signal caller. He didn’t have to do much against Nevada last week. He completed 6 of 9 passes for 44 yards and ran four times for 29 yards. Meanwhile, star running backs Donnell Pumphrey and Chase Price carried the offense by rushing for 100 yards each in the win.
Chapman is going to be asked to do a little more against an Air Force defense ranks 20th in the country, allowing 329 yards per game. If there’s one benefit, it’s that Air Force doesn’t have much film to scout and Chapman adds a rushing dimension that Smith didn’t have.
For Air Force, quarterback Karson Roberts is the leader of a triple option attack that is averaging 323.2 rushing yards per game. Roberts also can throw the ball, though he struggled with that last week in the loss to New Mexico.
San Diego State does play tough defense and is holding opponents to an average of only 284 yards per game. This will be a run-heavy game and might come down to who has the ball last.
Pac-12 Championship: No. 20 USC vs. No. 7 Stanford, 7:45 p.m. ET: Many believed these two teams would be playing for the Pac-12 title, but neither has had an easy road to get here.
The Trojans lost two of their first three Pac-12 games before coach Steve Sarkisian was fired and the team rallied around interim (now head) coach Clay Helton. USC went 5-2 under Helton and earned its first-ever trip to the Pac-12 title game.
Stanford opened the season with a loss to Northwestern, but worked its way back into the College Football Playoff conversation. A loss to Oregon nearly derailed things, but last week’s win against Notre Dame has the Cardinal poised for a CFP berth should some other chaos happen above them.
These teams already have met once this season. The Cardinal won 41-31, but this is a much different USC team. Instead of relying on the duo of quarterback Cody Kessler and receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, the ground game has become central to the Trojans’ success. Ronald Jones and Justin Davis are the stars of the USC running game, which is averaging 263 yards on the ground.
But the real running back star is on the other red team. Christian McCaffrey leads the nation in all-purpose yardage and will cause the USC defense to stack the box similar to what Notre Dame did last week. McCaffrey, who came into last week's game averaging 6.4 yards per play, averaged just 3.8 against the Irish.
That will put more pressure on quarterback Kevin Hogan to not only use McCaffrey creatively, but also find receivers Michael Rector, Devin Cajuste and tight end Austin Hooper.
Big Ten Championship: No. 5 Michigan State vs. No. 4 Iowa, 8 p.m. ET: No team among the top six has been questioned more than Iowa. The Hawkeyes are undefeated this season, but did so in a year where none of the Big Ten’s best teams were on their schedule.
That will change on Saturday when Iowa faces a Michigan State team that was a controversial touchdown away from being undefeated. The Spartans road to this game has not been easy. They've had close wins against Purdue, Rutgers, Michigan and Ohio State, and quarterback Connor Cook has been nursing injuries late in the season.
Iowa has remained fairly healthy this season. It has grinded out its wins thanks to clutch play by quarterback C.J. Beathard and running back Jordan Canzeri, who is fifth in the Big Ten in rushing with 964 yards. Iowa averages 203.7 yards on the ground.
Don’t expect this game to be high scoring. These teams are very similar in personnel and run similar offenses. Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio acknowledged that a lot of the things he’s done at Michigan State have been patterned after things he learned as an assistant while watching Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz. Both of these teams are going to lean heavily on their running games.
The stakes are high in this contest. With one team in the College Football Playoff and the other on the fringe, the popular theory is that the winner win earn a spot in the top four.
ACC Championship: No. 10 North Carolina vs. No. 1 Clemson 8 p.m. ET: If there’s one game on the weekend docket that has the most potential for upset, it’s this one. And that result could be catastrophic for the ACC.
Clemson has held firm to the No. 1 spot since the CFP rankings first surfaced five weeks ago. However, a loss this late could knock the Tigers out of top four and North Carolina might not be ranked high enough to take the Tigers’ place. Moreover, UNC isn’t getting a lot of love from the committee regarding its schedule, which includes a loss to a three-win South Carolina team and two wins against FCS programs.
Still, North Carolina is playing about as well as anyone in the country right now, which makes this game an intriguing matchup. The Tar Heels rank 16th nationally in yards with 495.7 and have scored at least 30 points in each of their last four games. Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables called the UNC offense the best the Tigers have faced this season. However, Clemson ranks seventh in the FBS, allowing 288 yards a game, and have given up an average of 25 points in its last five games.
Meanwhile, the North Carolina defense will have its own challenge trying to contain Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson, who needs a great game to gain some Heisman votes. Watson led the ACC in passing yards and touchdowns, but a lot of his success came against mediocre teams. Still, there’s no doubt he’s the best quarterback the Tar Heels have faced this season and UNC hasn’t exactly been stout on defense in the past few weeks.
Clemson has won the last two meetings in this series and five of the past six. In the last two contests, the teams have combined for 182 total points. Expect this game to be more of the same.
Want to hear more thoughts on this week’s championship games? Check out this week’s Dr. Saturday Podcast:
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Graham Watson is the editor of Dr. Saturday on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email her at dr.saturday@ymail.com or follow her on Twitter! Follow @YahooDrSaturday
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