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Dr. Saturday

Spread Options: Dr. Saturday’s Week 11 picks against the spread

Nick Bromberg
Dr. Saturday

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Jameis, your Heisman favorite status begins now. (Getty Images)

Doc Saturday's picks fell back to earth last week, but an above .500 week is still an above .500 week. Our 5-4-1 performance -- thanks Georgia for the push -- brings us to a tidy 54-46-2 on the year. Though had you followed our advice last night, you would have gone 1-2. But that doesn't count.

Let's get on with it.

Florida State at Wake Forest (+34.5), 12 p.m. ET: Yes, this is the game for Jameis Winston to assume the role of Heisman favorite. But this is a big stinking number to cover on the road, and this is a Wake Forest team that played Miami tough on the road two weeks ago before laying down against Syracuse. Florida State wins, and Florida State wins this easily, but it's not a five touchdown game.

Kansas State at Texas Tech (-2), 12 p.m. ET: I feel like I've ridden the Kliff Kingsbury bandwagon too much and with limited success. I'm fully able to eat crow on my assessment of Oklahoma State from before last week. And after watching that game, I'm convinced that Tech will play better and that Kansas State isn't as good as OSU is. Guns up.

Vanderbilt (+10) at Florida, 12 p.m. ET: Does this have the feel of a sucker line to anyone else? I don't doubt why Florida is a favorite given that the game is in Gainesville, but is there anything we've seen from the Florida offense over the past few weeks to even remotely envision a double digit win? Florida wins this game. But it's not a blowout by any means.

Auburn (-7.5) at Tennessee, 12 p.m. ET: This is yet another small road line for the Tigers, similar to what the spread was when they visited Fayetteville. Tennessee is a better team than Arkansas is and played very well against Georgia and South Carolina at Neyland Stadium. But dare I say it, Auburn is better than both of those teams. The Iron Bowl matchup for the SEC West survives another week without much drama.

TCU at Iowa State (+7), 12 p.m. ET: Upset alert! It's time for Paul Rhoads to get his team a home win. TCU is still searching for something after Casey Pachall's return and struggled mightily in the second half before falling in overtime to West Virginia. Iowa State should have beaten Texas in Ames and this time won't succumb to any borderline fumble calls going against them.

Hawaii at Navy (-16.5), 3:30 p.m. ET: The triple option or a pass-happy team that hasn't won all season? Oh, and that pass happy team is making a trek across the Pacific and across the United States. This one screams all Navy here, and it may resemble something like what we saw Stanford do to Oregon on Thursday night.

Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech (+16.5), 7 p.m. ET: Prove me wrong, Golden Eagles, prove me wrong. The worst team in college football has regressed even further since its one point loss to Florida International on October 5. The margin of defeats since then? 41 to East Carolina, 41 to North Texas and 48 to Marshall. Yikes. The losing streak is at 20.

Notre Dame (-4.5) at Pitt, 8 p.m. ET: What Notre Dame team are we going to see this week? The one that had to stave off Navy late in the fourth quarter or the one who demolished Air Force the week before? Here's betting that Notre Dame puts in a stronger performance. While Pitt is 4-4, its wins are over New Mexico, Virginia, Duke and Old Dominion. Hardly a stellar resume, even with Duke's win over Virginia Tech.

LSU (+12.5) at Alabama, 8 p.m. ET: This is not billed as the Game of the Century, nor will it be. But LSU's offense has enough firepower to keep this one within single digits, even if it never feels like Alabama loses control of the football game. Look for Alabama to jump ahead early and keep LSU at an arm's length, but that's too many points to give to the Mad Hatter.

UCLA (+1.5) at Arizona, 10 p.m. ET: If this game is in Pasadena, the Bruins are likely favored by five or six. We'd like that then, and we really like that now. Both of UCLA's losses have come on the road this season, but they're to Oregon and Stanford. The Bruins are the third best team in the Pac-12 (sorry for forgetting about you last week) and UCLA shows it.

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