Spread Options: Dr. Saturday's Week 5 picks against the spread
Another winning week.
A 6-4 week four means I'm creeping closer and closer to .500. Yes, it's a creep, not a sprint. Through four weeks, I'm now 14-26. But the fade button is now off.
There are a lot of big lines this week. It'll likely be the last time we see pointspreads like this all season. When conference play starts in earnest, things will be listed much closer. Let's get started.
Middle Tennessee at Old Dominion (-3.5), 8 p.m. ET FRIDAY: What's a Friday night Conference-USA game without a uniform disagreement? Middle Tennessee coach Rick Stockstill apparently made the decision to have his team wear white instead of allowing Old Dominion's request to wear white at home for its white-out game. Uniforms have no bearing on the outcome of this one, but I'm taking what's sure to be a jazzed-up Monarch team at it's first C-USA home game and first Friday night home game.
Tennessee (+17) at Georgia, Noon ET: Oklahoma hasn't taught me anything about taking Tennessee as a big road underdog, apparently. The Dawgs should win and it should be fairly comfortable, but this is a hunch conference play. If Tennessee is going to make some strides this year in the SEC East (and this is the year to do it) being competitive on the road is a must.
Wyoming (+28) at Michigan State, Noon ET: The Cowboys covered at Oregon though the line was 13 points higher than it is here. This should be an easy Michigan State win, but it won't be a blowout. Craig Bohl has this Wyoming team set for a bowl game and much like the Oregon game, this one will be closer for a lot longer than some people think.
Maryland at Indiana (UNDER 69.5), 1:30 p.m. ET: Can the Hoosiers follow up with a statement win on the road against Missouri with a Big Ten win at home? I'm not sure, which is why I'm avoiding Indiana -3.5. Both offenses can be proficient, but so far this season they would have only combined to meet this number once. That was on September 13 when Maryland lost to West Virginia and Indiana lost to Bowling Green, opposing teams with defenses worse than what we'll see in this game. This will be more 31-27 than 45-42.
Florida State (-18.5) at North Carolina State, 3:30 p.m. ET: A 3-0 team giving more than two touchdowns on the road to a 4-0 team seems like a sucker bet, right? The Seminoles are actually 0-3 against the spread this season. If FSU had a win or two against the line, this would be even higher. Don't discount Jameis Winston's on-field performance and it wouldn't be surprising to see a statement win of sorts from Florida State here. Winston goes for 350 yards and four touchdowns. It was a good undefeated run, N.C. State.
Minnesota (+13) at Michigan, 3:30 p.m. ET: I'd take Minnesota straight up if forced to choose between the two, so getting almost two touchdowns is a nice gift. Michigan's rush defense will keep it in the football game though. The Wolverines are giving up 80 YPG on the ground, and calling Minnesota a ground-based team isn't descriptive enough. The Gophers have thrown 65 passes all season while Michigan hasn't lit it up through the air as well. There's a reason the O/U is 43. When a number's that low, it feels mandatory to take the points when the number is so big.
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M (-9), 3:30 p.m. ET: Look for a shootout in this game. Arkansas has hit big plays with its run game and we all know what the Texas A&M offense can do. But A&M's rush defense (125 YPG) is much better than Texas Tech's (294 YPG) and the Aggies are a much more balanced offense as well. Arkansas won't be able to sell out against the pass on defense and will be forced to sell the run game if A&M jumps out to a big lead. It's not a blowout, but A&M covers.
Texas (-12) vs. Kansas, 3:30 p.m. ET: This has been touted as Kansas' best chance for a win over Texas even though the Jayhawks are double-digit underdogs at home. And quite frankly, it may be. But it's not saying much. While Kansas has found success running the football, Montell Cozart's arm (55 percent passing, 6 yards per attempt) isn't enough for Texas (89th in rushing defense) to not focus solely on stopping the run. It's not pretty, but the Longhorns take care of business.
Duke (+6.5) at Miami, 7:30 p.m. ET: The Blue Devils put themselves in a position for the ACC Championship Game last year with a win over the Hurricanes. This year, Duke is 4-0 and David Cutcliffe has shown his adaptability as a coach. Last season, Duke threw for 1,000 more yards than it ran for. This year, Duke has more passing yards than rushing yards. The offensive balance is too much for Miami and the heat in Miami starts coming from more than just the sun.
Oregon State at USC (-9), 10:30 p.m. ET: Bounceback game alert. After a miserable trip to Boston College and a bye week, look for the Trojans to storm out to a big lead. USC may not be as good as people thought after beating Stanford, but it's not as low as it looked against Boston College.
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Nick Bromberg is the assistant editor of Dr. Saturday on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at nickbromberg@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
