Seven teams that can win the NCAA tournament and two that can't
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Unlike last season when there was enough parity in college basketball to allow UConn to come from totally off the radar to win a national championship, that doesn't seem likely this year.
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This season's elite teams have achieved a degree of separation from the rest of the field that last year's never did.
There's unbeaten No. 1 overall seed Kentucky, such a heavy title favorite that Las Vegas oddsmakers have dropped the Wildcats' odds to better than 1-to-1 to win a championship. There's a handful of teams that are among the top challengers to Kentucky. And other than that, well, there's pretty much everybody else.
Here's a look at the seven teams that have the best chance to cut down the nets in Indianapolis in three weeks and the two high seeds that realistically don't have much hope.
SEVEN THAT CAN WIN A TITLE:
1. Kentucky (34-0): Explaining why Kentucky can win a championship this season is a lot like explaining why Brazil is a title threat at a World Cup or Usain Bolt is a gold medal contender at the Olympics. They're simply more talented than the rest of the field. The Wildcats have been the nation's premier defensive team all season, thanks to a stable of long, athletic big men who contest every shot at the paint. That gives their guards the security to pressure the ball and help force an SEC-best 14.1 turnovers per game. Kentucky's offense started the season well behind its defense, but the Wildcats ended the season as the ninth most efficient team in the nation. Opponents who double the post or pack in their defense surrender too many open 3s to lights-out shooter Devin Booke, Aaron Harrison and Tyler Ulis. Opponents who play Kentucky straight up often can't handle Karl-Anthony Towns or Dakari Johnson 1-on-1 in the post. And even missed shots are dangerous because Kentucky is fifth nationally in offensive rebounding percentage. Kentucky looked mortal occasionally in SEC play when it wasn't focused, but at the Wildcats' best only a few teams in the nation can challenge them.
2. Wisconsin (31-3): Ask coaches which team is best equipped to challenge Kentucky, and by far the most common answer you'll get is Wisconsin. The Big Ten champion Badgers have an ultra-efficient offense fueled by big men skilled enough to force the Wildcats to defend them out to the 3-point arc, guards who can drive and kick, and shooters who are lethal when left free. They also have enough size to defend Kentucky in the post and protect the glass. The challenge for Wisconsin will be getting back to the Final Four and earning that rematch. The Badgers could draw an Oregon team that has won 12 of 14 and a North Carolina team with Final Four-caliber talent even before a potential Elite Eight rematch with an Arizona team they edged in the West Regional final last year. Wisconsin may be the nation's best offense, but the Badgers have proven susceptible defensively to quick, athletic teams who can spread the floor and attack the basket off the dribble. That's something Wisconsin will have to show improvement defending in order to win a national title.
3. Arizona (31-3): If three midseason losses to opponents outside the RPI top 100 suggested Arizona wasn't ready to take Sean Miller to his first Final Four, the Wildcats' improvement during the past few months has proven otherwise. They've adjusted to the departure of Nick Johnson and Aaron Gordon and re-emerged as an elite defensive team that dominates the defensive glass and scores more efficiently than it did the previous year. Point guard T.J. McConnell has emerged as the team's emotional leader and become more aggressive on offense. Forward Brandon Ashley has fully recovered from the injury that cost him the second half of last season and scored 59 points in three Pac-12 tournament games. Freshman wing Stanley Johnson has learned how to defend to Miller's standards and how to best unleash his immense talents on the offensive end. And Gabe York is shooting with confidence, providing Arizona with a much-needed deep threat. The one concern about Arizona is that it still can go through prolonged stretches where jump shots aren't falling and points are hard to find. The Wildcats defend, rebound and compete well enough to endure some of those, but it could be fatal against the wrong opponent.
4. Duke (29-4): Though Duke won neither the ACC regular season nor tournament titles this year, the Blue Devils proved they're a title contender. They won at Wisconsin and Virginia, they swept the regular season series against North Carolina and they notched single victories over Louisville, Notre Dame and Michigan State. Duke averages the fourth most points per possession nationally because it boasts the nation's best low-post scorer in Jahlil Okafor, an array of shooters who are lethal when left open and a point guard in Tyus Jones who creates for himself and others off the dribble. Defensively the Blue Devils are better than last year but far from elite, which is a huge concern, especially against teams with quick guards or big men who can force Okafor to defend out to the 3-point arc. One huge reason Duke could be higher on this list is its draw. The path to the Elite Eight couldn't be better for the Blue Devils if they'd designed it themselves. Iowa State or Gonzaga pose a threat in a regional final, but it's hard to envision Duke going down early this year.
5. Villanova (32-2): Will Villanova remain the same formidable team that tore through the Big East with ease and rolled to a conference tournament title? Or will the Wildcats fall apart in the postseason as they often have in recent years? Nagging doubts about that have probably caused Villanova to be undervalued and overlooked entering the NCAA tournament. Though the Wildcats don't have a surefire NBA player on their roster, they have six players averaging at least nine points per game headlined by high-scoring wing Darrun Hilliard. They shoot a lot of threes, but they also make a Big East-leading 38.9 percent of them too. Thanks to strong guard play, solid perimeter defense and the rim protection of Daniel Ochefu, Villanova really has no glaring weaknesses. They aren't as talented as some of the teams above them on this list, but they're more than capable of taking advantage of a wide-open East Regional and returning to the Final Four for the second time under Jay Wright.
6. Iowa State (25-8): Few teams are more fun to watch than Iowa State because of its free flowing, impeccably spaced, sweet-shooting offense. The Cyclones average 78 points per game, shoot 48 percent from the field and boast five players averaging at least 9.6 points per game. Defensive indifference and a tendency to surrender too many second-chance shots sometimes puts Iowa State in a hole, but no matter because the Cyclones have proven they can dig their way out in a hurry. In its last five games, Iowa State has fallen behind by a total of 75 points and gone 5-0 anyway, a stretch that included a stirring second-half comeback to topple Kansas in the Big 12 title game. Last year, Iowa State had a favorable path to the Final Four but a season-ending injury to Georges Niang dashed its hopes. This year, the path looks relatively friendly again. The top two seeds in Iowa State's bracket — Duke and Gonzaga — are both teams that score better than they guard and the Cyclones can score with anyone.
7. Gonzaga (32-2): Given Gonzaga's recent history of failing to make it to the second weekend of the NCAA tournament, I understand your skepticism about this choice. I also understand if you want to see the Zags breakthrough at least once before allowing them to burn you again in your bracket. That's totally fair — maybe even smart — it's also not wise to discount a team with this collection of talent, depth and experience. Gonzaga boasts a frontcourt trio that fits together perfectly. Przemek Karnowski is a mammoth 7-footer with soft touch and a back-to-the-basket game. Kyle Wiltjer is one of the nation's most skilled big men, capable of burying pick-and-pop 3s, scoring on the low block or even attacking the rim off the dribble on occasion. And Domantas Sabonis is the third big man the Zags have never had, a good athlete who can rebound and finish in the paint. Throw in a senior-laden backcourt, some quality role players off the bench and the hunger that comes from hearing you can't do something time and time again, and the Zags at the very least are a team worth keeping an eye on. There are good teams in their path — Iowa, Iowa State and Duke in particular — but there's nobody in the region Gonzaga isn't capable of beating.
TWO THAT CAN'T:
1. Virginia (29-3): The Virginia team that spent the first three-plus months of the season stifling opposing offenses on one end and scoring methodically but efficiently at the other can definitely win a championship. I'm skeptical that the current incarnation has that type of potential. Since second-leading scorer Justin Anderson went down with a thumb injury and then underwent an emergency appendectomy, the Cavaliers have been more turnover-prone and less efficient on offense. They miss his 50 percent 3-point shooting, they miss his slashing and they miss his ability to lighten the burden on Malcolm Brogdon. The turnovers and misses are also diminishing their defensive dominance because they're leading to more run-outs. Anderson returned to Virginia in the ACC tournament but he did not look right, going scoreless on 0-for-6 shooting in two games. If Virginia is able to advance deep enough into the tournament for Anderson to shake the rust off and regain his previous form, the Cavaliers can be a title threat. Considering they have a dangerous 3-point happy Belmont team in the round of 64 and potentially Michigan State and Oklahoma lurking down the road, that's not an easy path for a team at less than full strength.
2. Kansas (26-8): Any team good enough to win an outright league title in this year's loaded Big 12 probably shouldn't be discounted as a title threat, but these aren't normal circumstances for Kansas. First of all, the Jayhawks will be without freshman big man Cliff Alexander for the foreseeable future. Secondly, they have what can only be described as the draw from hell. Round of 64 opponent New Mexico State is the second highest-rated 15th seed in the 14-year history of the KenPom rankings. Potential round of 32 opponent Wichita State is underseeded as a No. 7 and would be highly motivated facing an in-state team that has refused to schedule them. Potential Sweet 16 opponent Notre Dame is a top 10 team just days removed from beating Duke and North Carolina to win the ACC tournament. And just in case Kansas gets all the way to the Elite Eight, its likely opponent merely would be No. 1 overall seed Kentucky, which smashed the Jayhawks by 32 points in November. At full strength, with all its best players performing to their ability, Kansas is good enough to make a deep run in this tournament. Given its draw, its season-long inconsistency and the absence of Alexander, it's probably not happening this year.
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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at daggerblog@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
