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NCAA in the preliminary stages of San Diego State probe

NCAA in the preliminary stages of San Diego State probe

CBSSports.com reported Tuesday that the NCAA is investigating San Diego State's men's hoops program for possible rules violations.

San Diego State countered with a statement later in the day insisting that NCAA staffers had confirmed to the school that they "had not commenced a formal investigation."

So, what gives? Here's my best guess.

The most likely scenario is that NCAA investigators received a tip that San Diego State's staff may have violated recruiting rules and are just beginning to look into the allegations. It wouldn't be surprising if the NCAA had yet to open a formal investigation or contact San Diego State if its investigators were still in the process of reaching out to the primary figures involved. 

Having NCAA enforcement staffers poking around certainly isn't good news for San Diego State, but it's far from a guarantee of major sanctions either. The NCAA looks into numerous tips each year, some resulting in a full-fledged investigation and a notice of allegations and others turning up no evidence whatseover.

The damaging part of this story being leaked for San Diego State is more from a recruiting perspective.

It comes in a crucial period of the recruiting season when the Aztecs are in pursuit of a handful of Rivals 150 prospects including guards Jonah Mathews and De'Anthony Melton and forwards T.J. Leaf and Michael Cage Jr. The uncertainty stemming from a potential investigation provides rival coaches with ample fodder to use against San Diego State.

The NCAA's investigation arrives at a time when San Diego State is enjoying unprecedented success under Steve Fisher after decades of tiny crowds and losing records.

Aztecs basketball first became a phenomenon in sun-drenched San Diego in 2011 when breakout star Kawhi Leonard and a collection of transfers and under-the-radar recruits led the program to a 34-3 record and its first-ever Sweet 16 appearance. San Diego State has built on that momentum ever since, winning three more Mountain West titles, extending its streak of NCAA tournament appearances to six in a row and landing a group of highly touted prospects who once never would have considered the Aztecs.

The possibility of NCAA sanctions certainly is a threat to that momentum and to the legacy of the man most responsible for it.

For years, Fisher has tried to distance himself from the Ed Martin scandal that cost him his job at Michigan in 1997. Now he again has NCAA investigators digging into his program, which will inevitably lead to more difficult questions for him to answer.

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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at daggerblog@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!