Shuffle Up: Andrew Luck, 2014's right answer (so far) among fantasy QBs

The Shuffle Up series is all about value to come. What's happened to this point is merely an audition. How would you rank the players if you were starting from fresh today? (These are not Week 5 ranks.)

The dollar values are merely comparison tools; they're not assembled in any scientific way. Players at the same position are considered even. We're aiming to illustrate tiers, show where the pockets of value are.

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You'll disagree with some things (perhaps many things) because that's why we have a game in the first place. Share your respectful disagreement in the comments.

We'll take a slightly different tack on the first wave of quarterback comments, trying to ascertain where the right answers at the posiiton have come this year. After the full pricing of QBs is complete, we'll go back to the usual commentary that's forward-thinking.

(If you want to see Wide Receiver prices, click here. Running backs and tight ends will be Shuffled during the even-numbered weeks.)

$31 Peyton Manning
$30 Andrew Luck
$30 Aaron Rodgers
$28 Drew Brees
$26 Matt Ryan
$25 Nick Foles
$21 Colin Kaepernick
$21 Philip Rivers
$21 Russell Wilson
$21 Jay Cutler
$20 Matthew Stafford
$15 Ben Roethlisberger
$14 Andy Dalton
$14 Cam Newton
$13 Eli Manning
$11 Alex Smith
$11 Tony Romo
$11 Blake Bortles

Opinions vary greatly on when a fantasy team should take its quarterback. Some owners want to go early and go big; quarterbacks score the most points in standard formats and the elite ones are usually high-floor players. Other owners feel you can go very late, invest on the cheap; it's all about the marginal difference at the position, after all, and you might not be giving up too much with a late QB pick, given how deep the position has become. Some might opt to stream the position completely, just take the leftovers and work the weekly matchups.

And then there's the case for something in the middle. To this point in the season (and yes, it's been just four weeks), that's where 2014's right answer has come from. Andrew Luck (1305 passing yards, 13 touchdowns) is carrying teams on his broad shoulders.

Consider some of the QB facts of life this year, assembled by our friends at Automated Insights.

Yahoo fantasy teams that drafted Luck have a winning percentage of 64.9 percent, far and away the highest of any QB. Luck's ADP was a reasonable 44.1. The second biggest winning factor at QB is another mid-range guy, Matt Ryan (56.5 percent, 48.2 ADP).

If you waited around for Philip Rivers (73.9 ADP), you're winning 53.8 percent of the time. He's third on the list.

The big names, the blue chippers? It's been a mixed bag. Peyton Manning (ADP: 8.4) is fourth at 52.7 percent, though it's a little misleading since Denver took a Week 4 bye (the percentages include all four weeks, so a replacement QB factors in here). Although I didn't want to pay the freight on Manning this year, I doubt many teams regret taking him. Drew Brees teams are scuffling at 47.8 percent (at least he's home for five of his next seven games). Aaron Rodgers, 49.1 percent.

There are only seven primary QBs who have steered a winning percentage over 50 percent: Luck, Ryan, Rivers, Manning, Jay Cutler, Matthew Stafford and Russell Wilson. Rodgers, Nick Foles, Colin Kaepernick and Andy Dalton are just under 50 percent.

And then there are the season ruiners (to this point). Cam Newton's at 43.2 percent, though he did miss one game. He's still playing through some injuries and has been reluctant to run. Tom Brady owners win just 39.3 percent of the time (heck, sometimes it feels like zero). At this point, you're not answering his phone calls.

The best round to take a QB? Thus far, it's showing up as Rounds 4 or 5, when you could have landed someone like Luck or Ryan (or even Stafford, above the break even). The worst winning percentages by QB-round selection: Rounds 2, 3 and 7.

And if you waited until Round 10 or later, you're at 50.2 percent – treading above water. Sounds about right. Some teams clicked with early (non-QB) picks, some teams misfired.

Just having Luck on board almost guarantees a fast start: no matter what round you took him in, anywhere from the first to the eighth round, your winning percentage mean is between 60-67 percent. When a player is scoring like he is, the value of the pick doesn't even matter – just get the points. Of course, any strategy works if you pick the right players. You may have heard us say that once or twice.

$9 Joe Flacco
$9 Mike Glennon
$8 Teddy Bridgewater
$7 Tom Brady
$7 Kirk Cousins
$6 Carson Palmer
$6 Geno Smith
$5 Ryan Fitzpatrick
$4 Ryan Tannehill
$4 Austin Davis
$3 Kyle Orton
$3 Brian Hoyer
$2 Jake Locker
$2 Drew Stanton
$1 Derek Carr
$1 Robert Griffin III
$1 Johnny Manziel
$1 Jimmy Clausen
$0 Shaun Hill
$0 Michael Vick
$0 Josh McCown
$0 Mark Sanchez
$0 Matt McGloin
$0 Matt Moore
$0 EJ Manuel

The Luck skeptics point to his paper-mache schedule to this point. Philly and Jacksonville haven't stopped anyone, and the Titans might be a bad team. Game flow contributed to Luck's big Week 1 at Denver. Three tricky matchups are on the way: Baltimore, Houston, Cincinnati.

But maybe Luck has enough talent and weapons to be termed matchup proof. The Colts have assembled a deep group of pass catchers, and the running game (still centered around plodding Trent Richardson) is unlikely to steer many victories). The Colts defense is allowing 8.0 YPA and 250 yards a game; more shootouts could on the way.

And then you have Luck's rushing chops. He averages about 19 rushing yards per game this year, with 10 touchdowns in 36 pro starts. Every little bit helps.

As for quarterbacks outside of Naptown: 

-- Seattle's balanced offense often hurts Wilson in fantasy, though he rarely has washout games – and he also has a nifty rushing backboard. With matchup-friendly Washington, Dallas and St. Louis (absentee pass rush) on the docket, Wilson (and play-calling ace Darrell Bevell) should have a fruitful October.

-- Staying upright could be a challenge for Ryan, as the Falcons continue to lose offensive linemen by the truckload. But keep in mind it's easier to mask a poor line in the passing game than it is the running game. Ryan also has shootout potential most weeks, helped by the spotty Atlanta defense. And throwing to Julio Jones is good work if you can get it.

-- Stafford has been critiqued over the years for his inconsistency and mechanical flaws, and now he has surrounding concerns. How healthy is Calvin Johnson? How healthy, and how good, is Joique Bell? And is Detroit's defense good enough to flush away some of Stafford's upside? Don't forget the nightmare game Detroit and Green Bay gave us two weeks back.

-- I want no part of Brady, as I've said several places. Maybe they can fix the line eventually, but it's not going to happen right away. Rob Gronkowski isn't close to 100 percent yet. Julian Edelman is a nice complimentary piece, but he really shouldn't be your No. 1 wideout. There's no one to stretch the field right now. And in an underreported story, pass-catching back Shane Vereen is not playing very well. I could see the Pats cobbling a division title at 9-7 despite Brady, not because of him.

-- Bortles doesn't look like a rookie at all. His sack rate is a quarter of Chad Henne's nightmare number (17 percent). He's going to run some every week, and his young receiver corps isn't bad. Tight end Clay Harbor is around to help, too.

Consider a Bortles test drive in Week 5: I think he'll get plenty of volume, and make some big plays, in a high-scoring matchup against Pittsburgh.

-- If I knew the Bucs would settle in with Glennon, no questions asked, I'd have him a little higher. I'm also sad to see him lose Mike Evans for a few weeks. The Josh McCown injury probably saved the Bucs from themselves; now they have to play their young quarterback, who is their best quarterback.

The Bucs have a sluggish running game and their pass defense is awful. Glennon could quickly turn into a volume monster; heck, he got to 302 passing yards last week at Pittsburgh, despite an ordinary performance. Get ready for a Tampa Bay carnival.

-- I hope the Rams give Davis a chance to settle in. He's played pretty well. He has the best deep-passing metrics of the 27 quarterbacks who have enough qualifying attempts (hat tip, Pro Football Focus), while Brady sits last on that list. (One other interesting nugget: Foles has attempted the most deep passes this year by far. He's tried 39 passes of 20 yards or more, while Ryan and Rivers are next with 22.)

(We've put enough text into one blog piece; we'll give Wide Receivers their own column over here. Running backs and tight ends will be Shuffled during the even-numbered weeks.)