Foles was spectacular last week in Tampa. (USAT)
Fantasy is a speculative game. Predict the future, and you look like a genius. Don't, and you're painfully human. Gazing into the crystal ball, here's our view on 10 intriguing over/unders this week.
Nick Foles, off the second-best week by a Week 6 quarterback, passing yards this week against rival Dallas 289.5
Brandon – OVER. He topped this number last week in a tough environment – Tampa Bay, facing Darrelle Revis, Dashon Goldson and company, is no picnic. He'll be home this week against a Dallas defense giving up 329 yards per game to opposing QBs, so, yes, I think he can easily get the over on this one.
Scott – OVER. It's a mark-your-territory week for Foles, up against a Dallas secondary that hasn't stopped anyone or anything. After one more pinball showing, Chip Kelly should make it official - Foles is the man for the rest of 2013.
Andy – OVER. Where I've ranked him (top-8), it hardly makes sense to go under. Dallas' D was already allowing the most fantasy points to quarterbacks before the DeMarcus Ware injury. Foles has the best possible set-up this week, and he's coming off an impressive game against the Bucs.
Brandon Jacobs, resurrected last week in Chicago, rushing yards against the most generous run D in Fantasyland 94.5
Scott – Going OVER on the yardage, but even if Jacobs doesn't make the number, you'll want him for the goal-line work. He's still handy from in-close (in part because he's so eager to celebrate), and Minnesota's front seven will gladly escort you anywhere you want to go.
Andy – UNDER. Jacobs is still 31, and he still moves like a zombie. I'll tip my cap to last week's performance, when he took full advantage of a tissue-thin Chicago D-line. But I'm never gonna bank on a useful yardage total from Jacobs. If you start him, you're just hoping for goal line opportunities
Dalton – OVER. I completely wrote off Jacobs before last week, and while his performance had a lot to do with a poor Bears defense, he faces another one this week and is going to remain a workhorse.
Down Randall Cobb and possibly James Jones, Jermichael Finley receptions versus visiting Cleveland 5.5
Andy – OVER. Look, I need the over here. I've got Finley in a pile of leagues. Jarrett Boykin was awful in Week 6 when given an opportunity, so I don't think he's going to interfere with Finley. Cleveland's D is only middle-of-the-pack against tight ends, so they aren't to be feared, either.
Dalton – OVER. I fully expect Finley to see increased targets thanks to Green Bay's WR injuries, especially while lining up out of the slot more.
Brad – UNDER. Everyone believes Finley is due for a points explosion, but don't assume. The Browns have yet to allow a TE to surpass the above number. To ease pressure off Aaron Rodgers, expect a heavy dose of Eddie Lacy this week, hindering Finley's chances. He's still a reliable TE1, but a final line around 5-70-1 feels right.
Dalton – JOSEPH. This is a really good question in which I don't feel strongly one way or the other. But it's safer to pick a running back versus a wide receiver, based on expected touches. The Eagles/Cowboys over/under of 55.5 will be among the highest all season.
Brad – RUEBEN. Vikes corner Josh Robinson (92.7 catch percentage allowed) couldn't cover a baby with a giant quilt. And he certainly won't be able to contain one of the hottest receivers around. If the G-Man lines up against Robinson, expect a serious torching. That happens and odds are strong he finds the end-zone and tops 70 yards for the third straight week. Also, respect the Philly run D. It isn't nearly the sieve most perceive it to be.
Brandon – RUEBEN. Philly's defense has been used as a punchline often in '13, but let's give it credit for doing a solid job against opposing running backs - 14th–fewest fantasy PPG to the RB position, and only one RB over 91 yards from scrimmage. Rueben Randle has been too hot to handle over the past couple weeks, scoring three times. And his matchup with Minnesota is juicy, as the Vikings have allowed the eighth-most fantasy PPG to the WR position.
Requiem for a Stream. Pick a defense: Miami (vs. Buf), Atlanta (vs. TB), Carolina (vs. StL) or Tennessee (vs. SF)
Brad – MIAMI. The Fighting Flippers are a borderline top-five play with the Bills rolling into town. At this point, it appears Thad Lewis will get the start, but with C.J. Spiller still nowhere near 100-percent and the 'Fins fresh off the bye, they're strong candidates to reach double-figures this week.
Brandon – MIAMI. You get a rested Dolphins team coming off a bye, playing in front of their home crowd against Thad Lewis-led Buffalo offense. I like that set-up an awful lot.
Scott – MIAMI gets the check mark, at home and rested off the bye. The Bills have uncertainty at quarterback and a horrendous offensive line; let's pick on those things.
Blackmon and Henne have rekindled their fantasy love connection. (USAT)
WR wrasslin'. Who finishes with the better week: Justin Blackmon (vs. SD), Keenan Allen (at Jax), Demariyus Thomas (at Ind) or Calvin Johnson (vs. Cin)?
Brandon – BLACKMON. Hard to go against the top fantasy receiver of the past two weeks, especially with Cecil Shorts banged up and facing a Chargers defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy PPG to the WR position.
Scott – After watching the BLACKMON tape from the last two weeks, I'm never doubting him again. I don't care if the Jags start a German Shepherd at quarterback. And obviously the Chargers have nothing working in the secondary.
Andy – DEMARYIUS. If the battle is at all close, I'll take the guy tied to Peyton Manning. Also, Keenan does not yet belong in this conversation.
Scott – UNDER is the play, and I'm running away from Ridley this week. The Jets are far and away the NFL's best run-stopping unit per Pro Football Focus, and you know how the Pats handle their backfield - they can't wait to go to the bullpen after the slightest little miscue.
Andy – OVER. I don't think he's in for a huge day by any stretch. But there's also no reason to think the Pats will abandon the run in this one. It's not as if the Jets are likely to race out to huge lead.
Dalton – UNDER. I actually like buying Ridley low in fantasy, but it's more so after this week than now. The Jets have allowed an NFL-low 3.0 YPC this season, and it's no fluke.
Andy – MATHEWS. It's a fair question, but I expect San Diego to be playing from ahead mostly (although honestly, I expect this game also to be close), which should lead to more Mathews touches as opposed to the Chargers being in a bunch of obvious passing downs.
Dalton – MATHEWS. It's close, but we should expect a run-heavy second-half from San Diego at Jacksonville, benefiting Mathews. Woodhead is more receiver than running back.
Brad – MATHEWS. Speaking as objectively as I possibly can, my once worshiped mantasy is in line to record back-to-back 100-yard games for the first time since 2011. Similar to last week against the Colts, expect him to log a heavy second-half workload as the Chargers nurse a lead. Against a Jags D that's surrendered 4.7 yards per carry to RBs, he should finish in range of 110 total yards and a TD.
With presumed former radio D.J. for HOT 95 FM Case Keenum under center, 74.5 receiving yards for Andre Johnson at KC
Dalton – UNDER. Johnson has averaged 82.5 yards-per-game this season and will have a raw QB making his first NFL start ever throwing to him against one of the best defenses in the NFL. I'll give major props to anyone if they pick the over here.
Brad – UNDER. Keenum, who was a stats machine at Houston despite marginal arm strength, will be a deer in headlights against an unrelenting Chiefs front on the road. With the pressure likely to be intense and knowing how well Marcus Cooper, Sean Smith and, when healthy, Brandon Flowers have performed, it could be a forgettable day for Johnson owners. Bank on 5-60-0 and nothing more.
Brandon – OVER. Johnson has been over this mark in four of six games already, and I'm not sure that Keenum is going to mean such dire things for Johnson. After all, AJ had 90 yards or more in three of five games with he played with another backup, Yates, at the helm of the offense in '11, including topping this number in both postseason contests that season.
Shocker special showdown. Which off-the-wire receiver has the most fantasy potential in Week 7: Jarrett Boykin (vs. Cle), Jerome Simpson (vs. NYG), Kris Durham (vs. Cin) or WILDCARD (Must be under five-percent started)?
Brad – SIMPSON. Very quietly the overlooked Vike has a pair of 100-yard games to his name this season, one with Christian Ponder, the other with Matt Cassel. Josh Freeman was rancid with the Bucs, but the change of scenery, and a friendly matchup against the Giants, should do him wonders. Considering how porous New York has been in downfield coverage, it would be no shock if Simpson flirted with triple digits yet again.
Brandon – SIMPSON. I actually have a hunch that Josh Freeman's ability to throw the deep ball will mean good things for Simpson this week against a NYG defense that is averaging less than a QB sack per game. Freeman should have time to take some shots deep.
Scott – I want to hang with the elite QB and the creative play designer, so BOYKIN is my Huckleberry. A week of first-team reps can do wonders for a player's confidence and potential.
Andy – DURHAM. The man drew 13 targets last week and eight the week before. I would have said Boykin here if I hadn't actually watched him last week, when he looked hopelessly lost.
Dalton – BOYKIN. I expect James Jones to sit this one out, resulting in a Boykin start and some real opportunities with Cleveland's defense focusing on Jordy Nelson. Boykin obviously didn't look great last week, but with more practice reps, he's a serviceable WR3 in deeper leagues.
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