Advertisement

Over/Under: Just how macho is Machado?

Brandon Funston
At age 22, Manny Machado is emerging as one of MLB's best at the hot corner. (Getty)
At age 22, Manny Machado is emerging as one of MLB's best at the hot corner. (Getty)

O's hot corner Manny Machado, currently the No. 4 ranked 3B in fantasy, is on pace for 30 home runs and 25 steals. Can the 22-year-old breakout star deliver at least something close to that pace the rest of the way -  O/U final '15 tally of 24.5 home runs and 19.5 steals? Also, in a challenge trade scenario, who would you prefer for the final three months of the season, Machado or Cubs rookie Kris Bryant?

Brandon –  OVER on HRs, UNDER on steals. I have confidence in Machado's ability to hit at least 25 home runs - the power/talent is certainly there. But Baltimore has just 34 SB attempts as a team, one of the lowest totals in the league. And Machado already has more steals than he combined for in the previous nearly 300 MLB games that he played prior to this season. I have a feeling his SB tally is going to ease up a bit in the second half and he'll finish just shy of this O/U mark.

I think the Machado/Braynt comparison is about as close as it gets. At the moment, I'll give Machado a slight edge because you do have to consider the experience factor and the luck factor (Bryant's .380 BABIP is 5th-highest among those with at least 250 plate appearances).

Scott – OVER on everything. This is Baby A-Rod, right? The confidence, the toe tap, the uniform number, the shift to third when he really should be a shortstop (when I watch Machado play defense, I can hear the angels weeping). Machado over Bryant, too - being around the block once or twice has value.

Dalton – OVER for both homers and steals for Machado, who's been the No. 6 ranked fantasy player over the past month. I'm a believer. Having said that, I'd still prefer Bryant over him ROS, albeit only slightly.

Sticking with AL East third basemen, Alex Rodriguez has an OPS above .900 at the moment. His OPS high over the past four seasons is .847 ('10). Can he top that mark in '15 - O/U final season OPS of .8475?

Brandon – OVER. While I wouldn't be surprised if A-Rod endures a slump or an ache/pain that messes with his production a bit in the second half, you have to respect his hitting profile to this point, which shows a lot of hard hit balls, an ISO and BB rate near his career average, an honest BABIP and a liveable K rate. He can deliver an OPS in the lower half of the .800s the rest of the way and still beat this O/U mark, which is what I think he'll do.

Scott – I've been rooting for everything A-Rod this year, from the opening pitch. But the guy turns 40 in July, and that's enough for me to lean UNDER. I still expect a strong, fantasy-relevant season, however, A to Z. (I keep trying to get Rodriguez from Dalton, with no luck. He probably forgets I'm in the F&F League, as he's kilometers in front of me.)

Dalton – OVER. He's already got a head start, and I'd project at least an .850 OPS moving forward, likely higher. I actually would recommend holding ARod more than I would be trying to sell high.

Dodgers rookie Joc Pederson is on pace for 43 home runs, which would break the Dodgers rookie record set by Mike Piazza (35). Can Pederson stay strong through the summer and deliver a new LA rookie HR record - O/U final HR total of 35.5?

Brandon – OVER. I'll say he finishes right around 36-37 bombs. The impressive thing about Pederson is that he's hit 16 home runs in his past 51 games despite hitting .234 in that span. Yes, his HR/FB rate is high, and is likely to regress, but he's also cut his K rate down in June to 26.3%, which moves him out of gawd-awful territory, especially when it is paired with a BB rate of 17.9% for the month, fourth-best in MLB. This kid has serious power, and his plate profile is heading in the right direction at the moment. I'll take my chances on him.

Dalton – UNDER. He's been so impressive (162 wRC+), and I'm going to cop out and say he finishes with 35 bombs. He still strikes out a lot, and his 29.7 HR/FB% is probably going to come down, maybe significantly.

Scott – UNDER. Contact is an issue, teams make adjustments on emerging hitters.

If you were drafting today, in what order would you select these current top 10 outfielders - Brett Gardner, A.J. Pollock, Starling Marte, Charlie Blackmon, Lorenzo Cain?

Brandon – 1) Pollock (I'm unabashedly smitten) 2) Blackmon 3) Marte 4) Gardner (the injury history scares me a bit) 5) Cain

Scott – This is a list that makes me happy. I had no problem with the bottom guy, but the Top 4 is tricky. 1) Gardner, 2) Pollock, 3) Blackmon, 4) Marte, 5) Cain

Dalton – 1) Marte 2) Pollock 3) Blackmon 4) Gardner 5) Cain

April rookie sensation Devon Travis, who has been out since mid-May with a shoulder injury, is set to return this week. Where do you expect his rest-of-season roto production to rate among these other 2B-onlys - Neil Walker, Howie Kendrick, Joe Panik, Brandon Phillips, Robinson Cano?

Brandon – Of this group, I'd probably slot Travis behind Cano (if only for the heartbeat he's shown of late) and Kendrick (who is very safe in terms of batting average and run production expectations - I am comfortable with his floor). Besides those two, give me Travis.

Scott – I want to be careful not to expect too much from a major-injury returnee, especially a rookie. I'd take Cano over Travis, hoping the recent production is a sign of things to come. Panik has a better floor than Travis, Kendrick does too.

Dalton – Assuming Travis' shoulder is back to 100 percent, and that's admittedly a big if, I'd rate him first among this 2B group.

Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer are both projected to finish with more than 280 strikeouts this season, a total that hasn't been reached since Randy Johnson whiffed 290 in '04. Let's play the O/U game for both pitchers - O/U final strikeout total of 279.5? Also, will Scherzer join Kershaw as the only starters since Roger Clemens in '05 to finish with an ERA below 2.00 - O/U final ERA tally for Scherzer of 1.99?

Brandon – I'll go UNDER on the K number - it pretty much requires that a pitcher not miss a start the rest of the way to have a chance, and that's a hard bet to make. As for the ERA, I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that Scherzer finishes UNDER 2.00, just barely. He's been loving life in the NL, leading the league with a 17/1 K:BB rate against No. 9 hitters - good riddance, DH. And Mad Max has been a full run better ERA-wise in the second half over the past three seasons, so the trend has been that he only gets stronger as the season progresses.

Scott – Have to go OVER on the ERA, as it's such a microscopic number. Even in the punch-and-judy NL East, that's a very difficult number to keep. I'll also fade the strikeout numbers, in part because the Nats should clinch early and might skip Max a start here and there. I also want to point out that I ranked Scherzer and Kershaw even on the current Starting Pitcher Shuffle Up; let's not overreact to Max's hot start and Kershaw's brief slump. Either one could wear the yellow jersey the rest of the summer.

Dalton – UNDER for their strikeout totals and OVER for Scherzer's final ERA. It's a pitching era, and these are the top two fantasy pitchers no doubt, but those numbers are just so hard to bet on.