NBA Stock Watch: Kevin Love on the rise, Roy Hibbert falling
STOCK UP
Kevin Love: After a slow start to the season, he’s settled in with his new team in Cleveland, averaging 19.8 points, 12.1 rebounds, 1.0 steals and 2.1 3pt over the past nine games. Love is getting his fewest ppg (17.6) since his sophomore campaign back in 2009/10 and his fewest rpg (10.1) since his rookie season, which makes sense considering he’s sharing the court with LeBron James and Kyrie Irving now. Love’s Usage Rate (20.0) is way down and his lowest since his rookie year. Despite that, Love has remained a top-25 player this season, including being a top-10 value over the past two weeks. The Cavs are still figuring it out, and Love has to make some sacrifices (he’s attempted 5.7 fewer FG attempts and 2.7 fewer FTA per game this season compared to last), but he’s clearly going to remain an elite fantasy property regardless.
Al Horford: He didn’t look like his former self early on while returning from his second season-ending pectoral surgery, but the big man has looked healthier of late, averaging 17.2 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.7 blocks while shooting 51.7 percent from the floor over his past six games. Horford’s shot attempts both from the field (11.7) and the line (1.1) have been way down this season, but he’s averaged 16.0 FGA over the past five contests, which would easily be a career high, so he’s trending in the right direction.
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Chris Kaman: He’s likely available on most waiver wires, but Kaman has averaged 10.0 ppg, 6.3 rpg and 1.1 bpg while seeing just 18:58 mpg this year. His minutes are about to take a major jump, as Robin Lopez suffered a fractured hand Monday and could be sidelined for the next 4-to-6 weeks. Kaman will be the beneficiary, and he’s been a top-100 player this season on a per-36 minute basis, so go pick him up.
Khris Middleton: He’s owned in less than 10 percent of Yahoo leagues, so Middleton is quite under the radar. However, he might be looking at a big increase in minutes with Jabari Parker suffering a sprained knee during Monday’s game. Middleton impressed during stretches last season and has actually been a top-50 player this year on a per-36 minute basis. Especially if you’re looking for help in threes and steals, give adding Middleton some strong consideration. Here’s his game-winner at the buzzer Monday night.
Michael Carter-Williams: He’s the point guard equivalent of Dwight Howard, as last year’s Rookie of the Year’s value is dependent entirely upon your format. MCW has averaged 16.6 points, 8.6 rebounds, 10.7 assists and 1.2 steals over the past nine games, which are pretty incredible numbers. However, he’s also averaged 5.6 tpg while shooting 43.2 percent from the floor over that span. Despite missing multiple games to open the year, MCW also has the second-most triple-doubles (two) on the season. It helps that Philly is third in the NBA in PACE, and those are some gaudy numbers, but thanks to the turnovers and shooting percentages (he’s hit just 62.5% from the line), Carter-Williams has been the No. 263 ranked player in 9-cat leagues. If you’re punting TOs and FT% in a H2H format or a points league, however, he’s been a top-60 player.
This shot by Cory Jefferson might be the worst in the history of the NBA (the announcers’ excuse is pretty great).
Here’s Bradley Beal converting a game-winning alley oop with 0.8 seconds left.
STOCK DOWN
Serge Ibaka: He’s been a top-11 player in each of the past three seasons and cost an early pick in drafts this year but has been just the No. 38 player so far. It’s likely a small sample fluke, and there’s little reason to panic, but one would’ve expected Ibaka’s early season value to be higher than ever with OKC missing both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook (both are now obviously back). He’s shot a career-low 47.2 percent from the field, in no small part due to attempting so many more three-pointers (he’s averaged 3.5 this season compared to 0.7 the last two years), and he’s averaged just 4.9 rebounds over the past eight games.
Jared Sullinger: He’s been a nice revelation this season as a top-70 asset, but Sullinger has been in a horrible shooting slump of late, as he’s hit just 9-of-39 shots from the floor (23.1 percent) over the past five games, averaging only 5.0 points over that span. Sullinger should rebound soon enough, but he’s been losing playing time thanks to the poor shooting, and the third-year player hasn’t been a top-160 player over the past two weeks.
Brandon Jennings: He’s averaging career-lows in ppg (12.7), rpg (2.8), spg (1.0) and 3 pt (1.4). Jennings hasn’t scored in double digits in any of his past seven games and has shot an abysmal 24.4 percent from the field (22-of-90) over the previous 10 contests (including going 5-for-31 from downtown over this stretch). The former top-10 pick has been the No. 282 player over the past month and has been benched for long stretches under new coach Stan Van Gundy.
Roy Hibbert: After a strong start to the year, I was all in on Hibbert, who figured to see a big increase in Usage Rate with Paul George out for the season and Lance Stephenson signing with Charlotte. But since the encouraging beginning, Hibbert has battled injuries and seen a significant drop in performance, including not being a top-200 player over the past month. Since returning from an absence while dealing with an ankle injury that’s seemingly still hobbling him, Hibbert has averaged just 8.9 points and 6.4 rebounds over eight games, as the big man continues to struggle to post a strong FG% (44.4 on the year). Hibbert has made a modest 57.4 percent of his shots from fewer than five feet and an ugly 40.2 percent from 5-14 feet out this season (31.1 percent on jumpers). It’s no wonder the Pacers have the third-lowest Offensive Efficiency in the NBA.
Tony Parker: He’s dealing with a hamstring injury that’s slowed him down, although playing for the Spurs will result in random DNPs even when he returns to full health. Parker hasn’t been a top-125 player this season despite hitting a crazy high 65.4 percent of his shots from beyond the arc (his career mark is 32.2%). After being a top-50 player in 2012/13, Parker finished at No. 124 last year, and he’s been No. 192 on a per-36 minute basis so far this season, so he’s trending downward, especially once you factor in the inevitable regression with his three-point shooting.
