Week 4 rewind: Buying in on rookie Blake Bortles having fantasy value

You're not supposed to get emotional over the stocks, as Gordon Gekko once said. You're not supposed to get emotional over fantasy football players, either.

But I dare you to watch Jacksonville quarterback Blake Bortles and not get excited for his immediate future.

Bortles didn't have a magnificent fantasy day in his first NFL start (29-for-37, 253 yards, one TD, two INTs, 24 rushing yards), to be fair. Most of the completions came on short throws. He ranked just 17th in basic Yahoo scoring amongst quarterbacks, and that's on a heavy bye week. Teddy Bridgewater did better in his first start. Mike Glennon and Ryan Tannehill posted better numbers, too. And all of those other quarterbacks probably have better supporting casts than Bortles does (it's a certainty with Bridgewater).

Nonetheless, I think Bortles can be a solid QB2 this year and maybe a sneaky QB1 later in the season. For a rookie, he's awfully smart and polished. He's got every attribute you'd want at the position: size, arm strength, running ability, intelligence. I'm excited to see where this goes.

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The signature Bortles highlight from Sunday's loss at San Diego came in the second quarter (it's the first play here). Bortles took a snap around midfield and set up in the pocket, quickly met by the Chargers rush. Bortles sensed the rush and shifted to his left, reset to a balanced throwing position (from a quiet area), then uncorked a perfect toss to an uncovered Allen Hurns down the seam. The play should have been a 46-yard touchdown, but Hurns bobbled the ball before securing it, eventually gang-tackled short of the goal line. (It's not the first time Hurns has left a long touchdown on the table.)

If Chad Henne were still quarterbacking the Jags, that completion never happens. Heck, the play probably turns into a sack. Take note of this eye-popping stat from the first quarter of the season: Henne has a sack rate of 17 percent (which is horrendous), while Bortles is at four percent. Even through a small sample of plays, that tells us something important.

A weak offensive line is easier to mask in pass protection than it is in the run game, and quarterback sacks are more about the quarterback than the offensive line. For years Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees made their O-Lines look far better than they actually were. An experienced quarterback will get rid of the ball when it's possible; recognize a hot read when it's critical; adjust plays and blocking schemes before the snap of the ball.

We certainly can't expect Bortles to master all of those skills right away, but at least he's more mobile than Henne, and probably better at getting rid of the ball when duress hits. Bortles is also two inches taller than Henne, which doesn't hurt.

Part of the flaws on the Jacksonville roster should help Bortles as a fantasy quarterback. The pass defense is atrocious: 115 rating allowed, 11 TDs, one pick, 8.4 YPA. The Jaguars don't have a decent running back (if you missed Toby Gerhart this year, thank the fantasy gods) or a good run-blocking line. The receivers are also green, but there's at least some young and improving talent there.

Bortles also has some chops as a runner, which should add 20-40 yards a week to his bottom line. They've used him on a few designed runs. He won't be Michael Vick circa 2002, but there should be a modest kickback here.

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Bortles is going to make some rookie mistakes, and we'll see loose throws here and there. The Chargers made him look bad on a few occasions Sunday. But I still see a player who can help our fake teams this year.

The Steelers are next up on the schedule, a pass defense with all sorts of problems. I'll have this game on one of my primary Week 5 sets. 

Before we close up shop, here are some quick-hit Week 4 observations.

-- If you optimistically view Rueben Randle, you're hanging your hat on the targets. The guy is on a pace for 624 yards, after all. I'm not bullish, though.

Eventually I figure Victor Cruz becomes the target hog here, and I don't see why the Giants would look away from Larry Donnell at the goal when that's obviously working. Throw in Rashad Jennings's start – he certainly looks legit – and the possible return of Odell Beckham, and I can't rank Randle inside my Top 40 wideouts going forward.

Well, that's my envelope math for now. Unlike some of the pundits who throw out theoretical ranks here and there, I actually re-rank constantly during the year. On Thursday, I'll have the quarterback and wide receiver Shuffle Up. We can revisit the M&M Passing Game there.

-- There are only two reasons I'd consider moving Shady McCoy right now (assuming I owned him): if I were surprised by a big offer (I doubt that's coming), or if I were convinced it's going to be a horrendous season for him.

Most McCoy owners need to hold, wait until he posts a big game. You need consumer confidence to rebound a little bit before you get back into the market. And even when you look to trade McCoy later, don't be so direct about it. Put all of your running backs into the fold, see if they'll come to McCoy first.

Some creativity from Chip Kelly would help here, especially with the screen game. When your offensive line falls apart, you need to mask it in other ways. I recognize Darren Sproles is taking away some of McCoy's receiving opportunities, but it's shocking to see McCoy stuck on 64 receiving yards (and 13 targets) through four games.

-- Dennis Allen got fired but any team that gets blown out in London should be instantly relegated. That said, I'm curious to see what receiver Andre Holmes can do going forward. (I wouldn't play any Oakland running back on a dare right now.)

-- I vented against the Ryan Tannehill rumors all last week, and was pleased to see him play well across the pond. I get miffed when Michael Vick is presented as a solution in New York – the Jets need to commit to Geno Smith, see if they can develop him.

That said, I don't think EJ Manuel gave the Bills any choice. His accuracy over the last two weeks was horrendous, and he's basically wasting the two uber-talented skills players this offense has. No one expects Kyle Orton to be a savior, but if he can merely play adequate football going forward, the Bills could make a playoff run. The defense is excellent.

If you own Sammy Watkins or C.J. Spiller, the Orton move is music to your ears. It can't get any worse.

-- If the Vikings didn't feel they had to significantly change their Cordarrelle Patterson usage after a couple of losses, why would they do so after a high-scoring victory? He's still an athlete more than he's a receiver, and Minnesota's biggest immediate challenge is getting Bridgewater up to speed. I can't see Patterson becoming anything past a WR3 this season.

I also think Matt Asiata might have more staying power than most anticipate. I know, he's a boring plodder with no measurables to speak of, but he's proven as a pass-blocker and the team likes him as a between-the-tackles runner. When you convert a few cheap scores at the goal line, your team is encouraged to keep giving them to you. The balance between Asiata and Jerick McKinnon from Week 4 will probably continue for a while. Again, there's nothing forcing the Vikings to re-evaluate things, and McKinnon, for all his jaw-dropping ability, still has pro-game nuances to learn.

The upside play is surely McKinnon, someone who could blow up down the line. But I also think Asiata might keep winning ugly: three yards and a cloud of dust, but with a bunch of catches and a handful of short scoring plunges thrown in.