MLB Stock Watch: Velasquez rising, Sano falling
STOCK UP
Vince Velasquez: Not only has he yet to allow a run this season, Velasquez has a 25:3 K:BB ratio over 15.0 innings, as he’s been one of the most impressive pitchers in all of baseball. His last outing came against a Padres team that’s been shut out in nearly half of their games, but a 16:0 K:BB ratio is the type of signature performance that suggests future stardom. Velasquez owns a 17.5 SwStr% so far in 2016, and while the Phillies won’t provide much run support and possess a shaky bullpen, his fantasy value is shooting way up.
Jeanmar Gomez: A second Phillies pitcher gets upgraded here, as Gomez looks like Philly’s new closer. He has a career 1.40 WHIP, but he’s recorded a save in each of his past four appearances, which matters most to fantasy owners. David Hernandez has pitched much better after imploding during his first appearance, tossing 4.2 scoreless innings with eight strikeouts, but the closer’s role sure looks like Gomez’s for now.
Kevin Jepsen: With Glenn Perkins headed to the disabled list with a shoulder injury, Jepsen is Minnesota’s new closer. The Twins claim Perkins will be back soon, but there’s an equal chance his absence is lengthy. Jepsen is now an obvious must own in all fantasy leagues, but he’s off to a poor start this season and posted just a 34:20 K:BB ratio over 41.2 innings last year. Trevor May, who’s flourished since moving to the bullpen, including sporting a 15.1 SwStr% so far this season, is an intriguing option to stash in deeper formats.
Angel Pagan: He’s clearly healthier than he’s been in years, as Pagan is batting .385/.455/.590 and has transitioned smoothly to left field. He’s no longer hitting atop San Francisco’s lineup, but he already has two steals on the year, and he’s walked more times than he’s fanned so far in 2016. Pagan has been the No. 13 fantasy player this season and is owned in just 53 percent of Yahoo leagues.
Wilson Ramos: It’s usually best not to overreact to small samples, but that’s all we have to deal with this time of year, and all the talk about Ramos getting LASIK surgery during the offseason sure seems to have helped him so far. He’s batting .406 (although to be fair that’s come with a 5:0 K:BB ratio), and while runs scored will never be a strength, it’s fair to expect Ramos to be a top-12 fantasy catcher from here on out.
STOCK DOWN
Troy Tulowitzki: Hitting .239/.317/.380 after leaving Coors Field last season, Tulowitzki has posted a .534 OPS in 2016. After never striking out more than 130 times during his career, he’s fanned 55 times over 52 games since joining Toronto. Steamer is projecting a .251/.325/.429 line (104 wRC+) over the rest of the season. And this isn’t even factoring in Tulowitzki’s extensive injury history. It’s tough to consider him a top-five fantasy shortstop moving forward.
Ian Desmond: Many expected a bounce back after moving to Texas, but it’s worth pointing out just how disastrous Desmond’s season was last year (.233/.290/.384). He’s off to an even worse start this season (.289 OPS), as the move to the American League and the outfield hasn’t exactly been beneficial. Through 46 at bats, Desmond is still searching for his first extra base hit.
Miguel Sano: He’s batting .156 and has yet to homer this season. Sano now owns a career 35.9 K%, so there’s some cause for concern. I’d consider him a buy-low candidate, but this is a discouraging start to say the least. After producing a 43.2 Hard% during his rookie campaign last year, he’s at just 23.5% so far in 2016.
Ketel Marte: He’s off to an extremely slow start, still searching for his first extra base hit of the year. Marte has been moved to the No. 9 spot in the Mariners’ lineup thanks to his current .425 OPS, and he’s now owned in just 30 percent of Yahoo leagues despite the SB upside.
Adam Wainwright: There’s no reason to worry about a pitcher’s ERA after two starts, but Wainwright’s 5:8 K:BB ratio over 11.0 innings is a little eye opening. He was strong after returning from an Achilles injury last year, but he’ll turn 35 this summer, and his velocity in the early going (average fastball has been 89.3 mph) is a career low. It’s something to at least pay attention to moving forward.
