Fantasy studs and duds: James Harden producing amid Rockets' slump
NBA offenses went wild last week, reflecting the new age of exciting basketball we’re seeing. Saturday was the zenith of that fast-paced, small-ball style. All 14 active teams tallied at least 100 points, the first day featuring seven games with both teams in triple digits since March 2, 1991, according to Elias Sports.
That made finding “duds” somewhat difficult, but there were plenty of stud-worthy performances to delight fantasy owners and regular NBA fans alike.
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Note: The statistics in this article cover games played between Jan. 25-31. Players who missed portions of games due to injury were not considered.
Stud Guard: James Harden, Rockets
Key stats: 32.0 points, 7.0 assists, 7.0 rebounds, 4.0 three-pointers in four games
The Rockets didn’t have a stellar week, losing three of four to fall back to .500 at the 50-game mark. But you can’t blame Harden for the defeats, as he did everything to carry Houston on offense.
James Harden Stats in Last Four Games | PointAfter
The Spurs held The Beard in check in Wednesday’s 130-99 laugher, but the southpaw averaged 36.0 points, 8.7 assists and 8.3 rebounds against Houston’s other three opponents to lead all players in fantasy points in standard Yahoo leagues.
Harden shot exactly 50 percent on all field goals and three-pointers for the week, and converted 44-of-46 shots at the charity stripe for an absurd 95.6 percent success rate. His 40-point, 11-assist game against Washington was just the fourth game this season to feature such a line. Two of the other three also came from Houston’s ball-dominant star, with Russell Westbrook accounting for the last.
Despite being stuck right in the middle of Houston’s enigmatic season, Harden has shaken off an ugly start to ascend to second on the NBA’s scoring leaderboard with 27.9 points per game. With the Rockets still struggling to mine consistent offense from any player other than Harden, expect the lefty to continue producing gaudy fantasy numbers.
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Dud Guard: Kyle Korver, Hawks
Key stats: 7.3 points, 34.6 field goal percentage, 2.0 three-pointers in four games
Last season, Atlanta’s postseason opponents figured out that the Hawks’ fortunes swung with Korver’s shooting stroke. The same is true this year, as Atlanta has crashed back to the middle of the Eastern Conference pack with Korver looking awfully mortal from beyond the arc.
During easily the worst of his four seasons in Atlanta, Korver has sunk 37.1 percent of his three-pointers and 41.8 percent of all attempts, both his lowest marks since the 2007-08 season.
Kyle Korver Career Three Point Shooting | PointAfter
Last week was especially symbolic of Korver’s importance to the Hawks. He cashed 7-of-9 threes in Atlanta’s first two games of the week, a 14-point road victory over Denver and 2-point defeat to the Clippers. The NBA’s reigning three-point marksman then made just 1-of-9 treys in two lifeless contests against the Pacers and Heat, which Atlanta lost by a combined 37 points.
The defeat to Miami was especially tough on Korver, who missed all six of his shots on Sunday. The 34-year-old is in the process of reverting back to his old shooting motion, and his fantasy owners would certainly welcome the All-Star production of yesteryear from Korver.
Stud Forward: Ryan Anderson, Pelicans
Key stats: 27.1 points, 8.0 rebounds, 4.3 three-pointers in three games
While Korver’s been ice cold as of late, another sharpshooter in Ryan Anderson has sprung the Pelicans back into contention. New Orleans has won eight of 10 contests to move with 3.5 games of the No. 8 seed out west, thanks in part to Anderson’s 54.2 percent clip from deep over that span.
Anderson might even be more accurate of a barometer for New Orleans than Korver is for Atlanta. The 27-year-old has knocked down 51.3 percent of his shots in Pelicans victories, and just 39.4 percent in their losses.
Ryno is now sitting above 40 percent on three-pointers for the first qualified season of his career, a development that’s come at the best possible time for the pending free agent.
Note: You can hover over each zone on the shot chart to see Anderson’s shooting percentages in the corresponding area.
Ryan Anderson 2015-16 Shot Chart | PointAfter
New Orleans relied on the stretch-four more than usual with Anthony Davis, Eric Gordon and Tyreke Evans all missing games last week, and Ryno didn’t disappoint. New Orleans fed him 25 shots against Sacramento on Thursday to tie a season high, and he responded with 36 points in the 114-105 victory to match a career high.
As long as Evans is nursing his knee tendinitis, Anderson should continue to produce third-round value, as he did in January.
Dud Forward: Serge Ibaka, Thunder
Key stats: 6.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, 30.8 field goal percentage
Ibaka kicked off the week by collecting a season-high 17 rebounds and 12 points in Tuesday’s overtime victory over New York, but things got ugly from there. He combined for just eight points and six rebounds in victories over Minnesota and Houston, connecting on 3-of-14 shots.
Though Ibaka is tied for fifth in the NBA with 220 mid-range shots (16-23 feet) this season, sinking a respectable 47.3 percent of them, he’s still disappointed from a fantasy perspective. Since there are so many hungry mouths to feed on OKC’s roster, Ibaka isn’t always afforded a steady diet of shots on his off-nights to emerge from a slump. With Russell Westbrook leading the NBA in usage rate (34.0) for the third straight season, and Kevin Durant (28.5) not far behind in 15th, there are only so many chances to distribute to the rest of the Thunder.
The NBA's Best and Most Prolific Mid-Range Shooters | PointAfter
Stud Center: Karl-Anthony Towns, Timberwolves
Key stats: 24.5 points, 12.8 rebounds, 62.1 field goal percentage in four games
The frontrunner for Rookie of the Year continues to play years beyond his age. Though Minnesota lost all four of its games last week, Towns recorded double-doubles in each of them and notched a career-best 32 points against Utah’s stingy defense.
This was against stiff competition, too. KAT’s play let the Wolves stay within striking distance of the Cavaliers, Thunder and Trail Blazers, falling valiantly to three teams currently in playoff position by a combined 13 points.
Towns leads all rookies in PER (22.7) and rebounding rate (19.2), and is tied for fifth in double-doubles among all frontcourt players. If Timberwolves coach Sam Mitchell decides to give Towns (29.8 minutes per game) the playing time of a star, the 20-year-old will produce the per-game numbers of one.
League Leaders in Double-Doubles (2015-2016) | PointAfter
Dud Center: LaMarcus Aldridge, Spurs
Key stats: 15.0 points, 5.0 rebounds in three games
With Tim Duncan injured for San Antonio’s biggest game of the season against Golden State, Aldridge had a prime opportunity to assert himself down low against the Warriors and force them out of their small-ball lineups. Instead, he crumbled under the spotlight, tallying just five points and three rebounds in 25 minutes.
It was a startling performance that derailed Aldridge’s entire week. He wasn’t exactly a force against Cleveland on Saturday, either, totaling 15 points and two rebounds in 26 minutes. The seven-footer did miss a game with back spasms on Jan. 22, right before the showdown against Golden State, so perhaps Aldridge rushed back in Duncan’s absence.
Though we knew Aldridge’s individual output would decrease in San Antonio, his fantasy owners probably didn’t expect his production to tumble quite as much as it has. Once a steady 22-10 performer, Aldridge is more of a 16-8 guy now. Those players aren’t too hard to find.
LaMarcus Aldridge 2014-15 vs. 2015-16 Stats | PointAfter
Will Laws is a writer for PointAfter, a sports data aggregation and visualization website that's part of the Graphiq network. PointAfter is a platform for shot charts, scatter plots and other data visualizations about NBA players, NFL teams and dozens of other topics.
