Closing Time: Checking in on the Reds
For the third year in a row, the Cincinnati Reds are not headed anywhere. They’re already 14 games under .500 and 18.5 games back of the juggernaut Cubs. The Reds bullpen is one of the worst units of all time, an amazing 1.62 runs worse than any other group this season. It’s going to take a while to turn this organization around.
That said, there’s some fantasy fun to be had in this city, too. In a way, it’s become a team that puts the fun in dysfunctional.
Tuesday’s 7-6 victory over St. Louis might have been Cincinnati’s best night of the year. Every positional starter had a say in the run scoring, Adam Duvall and Billy Hamilton hit home runs, and Joey Votto won it with a walk-off in the bottom of the ninth (offsetting the inevitable Tony Cingrani blowup in the front half of the inning). Cincinnati also stole four bases (two from Hamilton, one from Votto) and the Reds won on a night where Mike Leake was on the opposite mound (that’s always nice, producing against a former teammate).
The Reds offense has been credible for most of the year. It ranks 15th in runs, tenth in homers, ninth in steals. There’s some fantasy juice here. It’s the pitching that’s sinking this team.
Let’s take a look at some of these Cincinnati bats, individually.
Duvall has been something, clobbering 17 home runs in just 185 at-bats. He’s only walked seven times (against 58 strikeouts) but we’re more than happy to accept a .270 average and .622 slugging percentage. He was a .268/.338/.503 slasher while stuck in the minors for six seasons, your classic free-swinging power guy. It took a while for Yahoo nation to buy into him, but he’s finally at 76 percent owned in our world. Even if a mild regression kicks in, this sure looks like a full-season contributor.
Votto’s been in a frustrating funk for most of the year, but he’s started to come out of it lately. Check the last 11 games: .295/.380/.750, five homers, even three steals. This would have been a perfect buy low two weeks ago — I’d like to think the window has closed now. If there’s anyone in your league aware of Votto’s revival, surely it’s the guy who owns him. If you’ve made the move for Votto recently, state your case — and take a victory lap, if needed — in the comments.
I’ve had a hard time pinning down Billy Hamilton’s fantasy value over the years. I had many positive things to say in the middle of the 2014 season; subsequently, Hamilton hit the skids. This year I basically decided I didn’t want Hamilton unless the price was a full giveaway, and while he hasn’t been a fantasy monster by any means, he’s certainly outplayed my expectations.
Hamilton is at .263/.303/.391 through Tuesday’s action, notable jumps from his career slash. He’s hit a couple of home runs and stolen 15 bases. You won’t get to the All-Star Game with this resume, but it does rank Hamilton as a Top 40 outfielder through the first third of the year. Some of you are in line for a profit, depending on your buy in.
I wish Hamilton’s batter profile showed something we could rally behind. Walks are actually down, strikeouts up. He has nudged his line-drive rate up by three percent. He’s also hitting a lot more ground balls (up to 49.6 percent), which is what you want from this type of hitter and athlete. Anything in the air is detrimental to the cause.
Is Jay Bruce back in our good graces? After two miserable seasons, he’s kicked it up to .279/.330/.584, with 13 homers. He’s hitting the ball up the middle more than ever, and he’s also at the highest hard-hit rate of his career. I was gun shy on Bruce after his two-year collapse, a stance I certainly regret. He’s been a Top 10 outfielder to this point, a few slots above Duvall.
Eugenio Suarez has been inconsistent through 2016, though his pop has played all along. He had a .772 OPS in April, then crashed to .586 (with 37 strikeouts) in May. He’s currently a .239/.293/.455 stick with 13 home runs, which sounds like the type of player we should expect forward. Given his middle-infield eligibility (along with his standard 3B tag), that’s not bad.
If you wanted to add a Reds bat, your best bet would come up the middle. Brandon Phillips is owned in just 47 percent of leagues, while Zack Cozart trades at 37 percent.
Phillips has quietly been a steady contributor in all five categories (.269-25-6-26-4), which makes him the No. 17 second-base eligible to this point. In deeper leagues, we can live with that. Phillips also turns 35 later this month, so you also wonder if this could be his high-water mark.
Cozart’s been a free swinger for most of his career, so that .301 average jumps out at you. He’s improved his strikeout rate to a personal best, though he’s also walking less. He’s not going to give you much as a base-stealer, but eight home runs in 49 games, that’s very playable at shortstop. If you take nothing else from today’s missive, kick some tires on Cozart. More often than not, you'll find him hitting leadoff for the Reds.
Speed Round:
A balky wrist kept Cameron Maybin out Tuesday, and he’s not in Wednesday’s lineup either . . . Evan Longoria has been an iron man through 2016, but he finally needed a day off Tuesday, dealing with general soreness. He’s back in Wednesday’s mix, taking his swings at Arizona . . . The Mets made a predictable acquire for their infield, adding journeyman Kelly Johnson . . . If you miss Troy Tulowitzki’s strikeouts, he’s angling for a June 13 return. Darwin Barney has been rock solid in Tulo’s place . . . Yordano Ventura and Manny Machado are both looking at likely suspensions after another day of mischief Tuesday . . . Vincent Velasquez is dealing with biceps soreness and only made two pitches Wednesday. Given that he’s already got a Tommy John surgery in his rearview mirror and the Phils aren’t going anywhere in 2016, expect the team to be ultra-conservative here . . . The Rangers got past the Astros again, even though Ken Giles (he of the 5.76 ERA) thinks Houston has the better team . . . Chris Young reached base twice in Boston’s extra-inning win at San Francisco. He’s been useful, rolling along at .296/.374/.580 in limited action. He’s needed against all pitching while other left-fled options get well . . . Buster Posey has a bad thumb, which could launch me into a four-month depression. If you missed Tuesday's catcher shuffle, head over here . . . If you have the time and patience to lineup-jockey for a short-side platoon specialist, Ryan Rua would like your attention. The Texas outfielder has a career .315/.366/.500 slash against southpaws (it’s much better this year), and the Rangers face three straight lefties from Saturday to Monday . . . Eduardo Nunez clocked two more homers, pushing his OPS over .900. He's also 12-for-15 on the bases. I have zero shares . . . . . Jhonny Peralta returned to the St. Louis lineup, posting a 4-0-2-2 line as the third baseman and No. 5 hitter. Matt Carpenter pivoted to second, Almedys Diaz stayed at short, and Kolten Wong hit the minors.
