XFL betting, odds: Playoff spots are on the line in final week of regular season

Well, that sure went fast. The XFL enters its final week of the regular season, which means four of the eight teams will be taking the field for the final time this year.

With two playoff spots secured, and four teams battling it out for the final two spots, there is plenty to unpack when it comes to getting comfortable with what to expect this weekend. Both the DC Defenders and Houston Roughnecks clinched home-field advantage in next week’s semifinals, and Roughnecks coach Wade Phillips already assured us that he will be looking to rest key players. Seattle and St. Louis, both 6-3, have their playoff fates on a collision course toward multiple tiebreaker scenarios, with point differential making all the difference.

What’s the impact on wagering on this weekend’s games? No XFL game has closed with a total higher than 46 this year, and totals for the Seattle and St. Louis games are currently at 47 and 47.5, respectively. We should expect a wild ride in Week 10, where timing is everything as the playoff picture unfolds with each game. Let’s dive into the action and end the regular season with some wins.

Orlando Guardians +8.5 at St. Louis Battlehawks (O/U 47.5)

The Guardians (1-8) haven’t done much of anything right all season, so there is very little chance they play spoiler here. St. Louis, currently tied with Seattle for the final playoff spot in the North, not only has to win, but likely has to win by a very wide margin. Without going down the rabbit hole of XFL tiebreakers, the important note is that the final playoff spot is likely to be decided by each team’s ranking in points for and points against. St. Louis has scored 19 fewer points and allowed six more points than Seattle. So not only do the Battlehawks need to win, they need to score a lot of points in the process, which is why you see the total at 47.5, six points higher than St. Louis’ average closing total on the season (41.3). Oh, by the way, the Battlehawks are also 0-4 to the over the last four weeks.

Smash the under? Not so fast. St. Louis operates at the slowest rate of any XFL offense, averaging only 56.1 plays per game for the season. Plus, it is up against the league’s worst defense in Orlando, which allowed 6.8 yards per play last week to San Antonio of all teams. St. Louis knows it has to play fast and light up the scoreboard to keep its playoff hopes alive. Lay the points and perhaps play the over. The bet: St. Louis -8.5

DC Defenders -3 at San Antonio Brahmas (O/U 41.5)

This is the best offense against the worst offense, at least in the second half of the season. That type of matchup usually screams lay the points. However, the Brahmas need to keep their playoff hopes alive, while DC’s motivation is all about getting out of the game healthy. The rosters aren’t deep enough for DC coach Reggie Barlow to sit everyone, but I would be surprised if we see the Defenders' key players on both sides of the ball get significant snaps. I just can’t get to the window with San Antonio, even as a home dog with its season on the line. If you exclude its two games against Orlando, San Antonio is 1-6 and averaging only 12.2 points per game against the rest of the league. DC will be able to move the ball with D’Eriq King at QB and behind the league’s best rushing attack.

In a game with a short spread, it’s also significant that DC is one of the league’s most successful teams at 2-point conversions (48.4%), while San Antonio is 0-of-10 on the season. The Brahmas' defense is also the league’s worst defending the 2-point try, allowing a 55% success rate. I personally will be waiting to see if I can get 2.5 before kickoff, but have no problem laying the points at the current number. The bet: DC -3

Houston Roughnecks +1 at Arlington Renegades (O/U 42.5)

Phillips seemed pretty straightforward that he was going to rest as many players as possible with a home playoff game wrapped up. Arlington, on the other hand, clinches a date at Houston next week with a win. Outside of the massive motivational edge, Arlington is likely the better football team despite having a worse record. The last three weeks with QB Luis Perez at the helm, Arlington has posted 6.1, 5.5 and 6.4 yards per play. That’s well above the league average of 5.1 for the season. The Renegades racked up 434 yards of offense in its OT loss to DC, which is the third-highest yardage output among all XFL teams this year. Meanwhile, Houston has sputtered to average only 209 yards in the last three games. The Roughnecks' defense has been winning by forcing turnovers, but that’s an area where Arlington is better. The challenge with going heavy on Arlington is that a San Antonio loss the day before clinches a playoff spot for Bob Stoops’ Renegades. This one could easily turn into a glorified scrimmage without either team's top players. If that’s the case, the under would be in play, but I still think Arlington is the side despite the potential variance. The bet: Arlington -1

Vegas Vipers +8.5 at Seattle Sea Dragons (O/U 47)

The 2-7 Vipers are playing for pride while Seattle has a playoff spot on the line. QB Ben DiNucci has been in his bag the second half of the season and is coming off his best performance in last week’s must win at St. Louis. The Sea Dragons scored 30 points against the Battlehawks in a huge road win that tipped the scales of the playoff race in their favor. Seattle has all the firepower to light up the scoreboard against Rod Woodson’s Vipers defense. Vegas allowed 519 yards and 8.2 yards per play to the Sea Dragons back in Week 3. Now, we get Seattle in a spot where its postseason fate depends on how significantly it blows out Vegas. There is a scenario where Seattle could capture what it needs in the first and calls the dogs off, but I am willing to gamble the Sea Dragons scorch Vegas here. The bet: Seattle -8.5