The worst NFL quarterbacks for every type of throw
If there is a best, there has to be a worst. So, after reviewing the best NFL quarterbacks for every type of throw — with most of the expected names — it was then time to dig into the quarterbacks who struggled most with all kinds of different concepts. From drop length to type of throw to with and without the assistance of play-action and pre-snap motion, and with and without pressure and the blitz.
Last year, the clubhouse leader on the worst list was then-Broncos quarterback Drew Lock (have fun with that, Seahawks). This season, there are two rookies who stand alone and apart — first overall pick Trevor Lawrence, and second overall pick Zach Wilson.
With Lawrence, there was so much that went wrong in Jacksonville that was beyond his control, you’re inclined to give the poor guy a mulligan for the whole thing. In Wilson’s case, the YOLO tendencies he showed ay BYU were readily apparent in the NFL, as one would expect. Regarding veterans on this year’s list, let’s just say that the Panthers have a quarterback problem Sam Darnold isn’t going to solve. There’s also one Tua Tagovailoa appearance on this list, which will get both sides of the TuAnon debate going yet again.
Without further ado, here’s the worst quarterback for every type of throw from the 2021 NFL season.
Zero/One-step drop: Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
(Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)
Stafford showed up on our best list on three-step drops, and he was by far the NFL’s best quarterback last season when blitzed, but the quick game seemed to bedevil him in Sean McVay’s offense from time to time. On throws of zero of one step last season, Stafford completed 45 of 67 passes for 301 yards, 154 air yards, two touchdowns, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 61.8. Lamar Jackson also threw two touchdowns and four picks on such drops, but he did so from more attempts (100) and completions (65), and his passer rating was 71.0. Justin Herbert threw four picks on these types of throws, but he threw seven touchdown passes, so there you go.
In Stafford’s case, a lot of these plays seemed to be instances in which Stafford and his receivers just weren’t on the same page in quick game. This Kevin Byard interception against the Titans in Week 9 has Stafford trying to hit Robert Woods on a quick out — problem is, Stafford completely missed the fact that Byard had the route jumped from the snap.
Three-step drop: Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers
(Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports)
Trying to make Sam Darnold a thing has been an NFL problem since the USC alum was selected by the Jets with the third overall pick in the 2018 draft. This is not a great list if you’re a highly-drafted Jets quarterback, by the way. On three-step throws for the Panthers last season, the embattled veteran completed 82 of 158 passes for 942 yards, 442 air yards, three touchdowns, seven interceptions, and a passer rating of 58.0 — the lowest for any quarterback with at least 100 three-step attempts in 2021. Darnold also had the lowest Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt with 3.2. Trevor Lawrence had the second-lowest ANY/A at 3.9, and the second-lowest passer rating at 64.3, throwing five touchdowns and nine interceptions on three-step drops. Joe Burrow led the league with 10 three-step interceptions, but as he threw 27 three-step touchdowns, we’ll let that slide.
There were far too many throws Darnold made last season against two-high coverage in which he simply didn’t help his receivers, and his receivers didn’t help him. Even on three-step throws, which would seem to indicate passes underneath those coverages, there were too many miscues and communication breakdowns. This Chauncey Gardner-Johnson pick against the Saints in Week 17 looks like Gardner-Johnson was the target more than anybody wearing a Panthers uniform.
Five-step drop: Zach Wilson, New York Jets
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We now begin the Zach Wilson portion of our program, which extends far longer than anybody in the Jets organization would like it to. So, let’s begin with throws on five-step drops. On those, Wilson completed 45 of 103 passes for 638 yards, 453 air yards, two touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 58.6.
Wilson is still getting the hang of throwing to where his receivers are, as opposed to where defenders are converging, and this showed up on this Jaylinn Hawkins interception against the Falcons in Week 5. Receiver Keelan Cole runs an arc route around the left seam, and instead of throwing Cole open, Wilson waits too long, and Hawkins gets the easy pick.
Seven-step drop: Zach Wilson, New York Jets
(Syndication: The Record)
On to seven-step drops. Last season, Wilson completed 27 of 56 deep-drop passes for 349 yards, 231 air yards, no touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 45.9. This would lead us to believe that Wilson was less than efficient on longer-developing plays, and the tape backs that up at this point in his career.
Here, against the Patriots in Week 2, Wilson responds to blitz pressure up the middle from linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley by throwing in the general vicinity of receiver Corey Davis… but really, cornerback J.C. Jackson is in a better position to react to the ball. Jackson does so by batting the ball up to safety Devin McCourty, who bats it back to Jackson for the interception. When the opposing defense has time to play volleyball in the deep third, this is an indication that things are not going well for your offense.
Designed rollout: Zach Wilson, New York Jets
(Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports)
This one was a bit of a surprise. Watching Wilson at BYU, I was singularly impressed by his combination of mobility to get outside the pocket, and the ability to make bang-on deep throws in chaos. Perhaps that doesn’t fly against the rigors of NFL defenses — at least, not yet. But I thought Wilson would be a better rollout quarterback than he was, completing 13 of 30 passes on designed rollouts for 120 yards, 64 air yards, two touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 63.2.
We’re going back to that Week 2 game against the Patriots for this one — here, Wilson tries to hit Corey Davis again, but he’s got four defenders either following or preparing to react to Davis’ crossing route. Wilson’s response, instead of throwing the hot route underneath (it was first-and-10 with 4:17 left in the first quarter) or trying to hit tight end Tyler Kroft over the top of the coverage, was to overthrow Davis, right into the waiting hands of safety Adrian Phillips. Oof.
RPO: Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
(Syndication: The Tennessean)
You wouldn’t expect to see Tannehill on here for RPO throws, but when you complete seven of 11 such passes for 34 yards, minus-7 air yards, no touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 30.1, that’s how that happens.
This quick deflection pick Tannehill threw to Cincinnati cornerback Mike Hilton in the divisional round of the playoffs — one of three Tannehill threw in the game — was intended for receiver Chester Rogers, but you know what can happen when defenders read quick passes.
With pre-snap motion: Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers
(Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports)
Back to Darnold, who was the NFL’s worst quarterback last season with the “help” of pre-snap motion — generally, that’s a cheat code for quarterbacks, but some don’t like it because it muddies their picture. Darnold would appear to be one of those guys. He completed 115 of 201 passes with motion for 1,082 yards, 471 air yards, seven touchdowns, nine interceptions, and a passer rating of 65.1. Cam Newton had a passer rating of 59.2 on pre-snap motion throws, so maybe the Panthers should just throw that idea out altogether.
This interception against the Patriots in Week 9 is one of the more inexplicable you’ll see from a quarterback in the 2021 season. Safety Devin McCourty follows running back through his backfield motion, McCaffrey runs a wheel route, and Darnold rolls left to throw an end zone pass to receiver D.J. Moore — across his body, and against his own momentum. Predictably, the ball hangs in the air, and J.C. Jackson (him again!) is right there to retrieve the helium ball.
Without pre-snap motion: Chicago Bears quarterbacks!
(Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports)
No surprise that Bears quarterbacks Justin Fields and Andy Dalton were disasters without pre-snap motion last season, especially when Fields was obviously better with it. That’s Matt Nagy for you.
Fields was also better when given the benefit of pre-snap motion. No surprise there, as motion tells a quarterback what kind of coverage he’ll face to a point (motion to indicate), and it can create favorable matchups in space (motion to disrupt). With motion, Fields completed 55 of 78 passes for 609 yards, 334 air yards, two touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 96.6. Without it, he completed 104 of 192 passes for 1,261 yards, 789 air yards, five touchdowns, nine interceptions, and a passer rating of 63.7.
So, of course he had almost twice as many dropbacks without motion (192) as he did with it (100).
Something for new Chicago offensive coordinator Luke Getsy to consider.
Since Dalton isn’t part of the picture anymore (he’s backing up Jameis Winston in New Orleans), let’s focus on Fields. Both of his interceptions against the Packers in Week 14 (we’ve already reviewed the Rasul Douglas pick) came without any kind of pre-snap motion to give Fields a coverage indicator. Here, Fields overthrows Darnell Mooney from a compressed pocket, and cornerback Chandon Sullivan has an easy retrieval.
With play-action: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
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As we’ve said, we don’t really know how good Lawrence can be in a functional NFL offense, because whatever the Jags barfed onto the field in 2021 never resembled that. But we will state, for the record, that when throwing with play-action (generally another cheat code for quarterbacks), Lawrence completed 115 of 164 play-action throws for 1,207 yards, 513 air yards, two touchdowns, five interceptions, and a passer rating of 82.5. That last statistic at least gives us hope that new head coach Doug Pederson and his staff will give Lawrence more opportunities to use play-action in concepts that aren’t as feast-or-famine, and in which Lawrence and his receivers are on the same page once in a while.
On this Quandre Diggs interception against the Seahawks in Week 8, receiver Tavon Austin is running a deep over route, and Lawrence thinks he has this wide open. Unfortunately for him, the timing of the throw and the route isn’t ideal, and Diggs is waiting to close on the ball late, as is his wont.
Without play-action: Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
(AP Photo/Kamil Krzaczynski)
Justin Fields struggling without play-action when he’s much better with it, and his offensive shot-caller tying at least one of his hands behind his back more often than not?
OMG, that’s Matt Nagy’s music again.
Last season, Fields completed 57 of 84 passes with play-action for 509 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 102.2. Without play-action, he completed 124 of 213 passes for 1,361 yards, five touchdowns, all 10 of his interceptions, and a passer rating of 65.5. Fields’ yards per attempt shot up from 6.4 without play-action to 8.9 with it, his completion rate went from 58.2% to 61.4%, and his big-time throw rate went from 4.3% to 12.7%. Per Pro Football Focus, a big-time throw is “a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.”
So, with play-action, Fields was more efficient, more explosive, and overall, a much better quarterback. Which is why Nagy allowed him to use it on just 23.8% of his dropbacks — 26th in the league among quarterbacks who played at least 20% of their teams’ snaps. For context, Tua Tagovailoa led the league with a play-action rate of 42.8%. Fields’ 2022 rate should probably be even higher than that.
This Rasul Douglas interception against the Packers in Week 14 shows that Fields was still learning how to get the ball where it needed to be on time. It’s supposed to be a quick out to Darnell Mooney, but Douglas jumped the route perfectly, and took it to the house. Fields’ unfortunate tackle attempt added insult to insult.
When blitzed: Zach Wilson, New York Jets
(Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports)
So… yeah. Mr. Wilson again, and the blitz was not his friend in 2021. He was basically the Anti-Matthew Stafford, completing 49 of 107 passes when blitzed for 497 yards, 175 air yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 54.9.
As seen against the Patriots when he threw that interception to J.C. Jackson, Wilson seemed particularly vulnerable to blitzes right up the middle. This red zone incompletion against the Jaguars is predicated on the presence of linebacker Damien Wilson up the middle/ Wilson actually has a clean pocket here, and there’s a shot to Denzel Mims in the end zone if he calms down, but rookies are rookies, for the most part.
Without the blitz: Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
(Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports)
As is the case with Lawrence, Fields was so handicapped by bad coaching in 2021, we’re inclined to throw last season out and start over. But we will mention that against four or fewer pass-rushers, Fields completed 109 of 191 passes for 1,321 yards, 833 air yards, four touchdowns, nine interceptions, and a passer rating of 65.8. This was less about Fields not being able to deal with straight rushes, and more about Fields still learning how to deal with pre-snap blitz looks that turned into something else post-snap.
On this incompletion against the Ravens in Week 11, Baltimore has a blitz look pre-snap with six potential rushers at the line, but just three work the pocket post-snap, and eight defenders drop. Safety Chuck Clark’s presence in the short middle of the field seems to impact the potential effectiveness of this slant pass to Marquise Goodwin. Quarterbacks need time to suss out three-man rush coverages (remember, the Bengals drove Patrick Mahomes nuts with this in the AFC Championship game), and hopefully, a new staff will give Fields better answers.
Under pressure: Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
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TuAnon revelers, unite! When pressured in 2021, Tagovailoa completed 49 of 104 passes for 606 yards, 356 air yards, three touchdowns, eight interceptions, and a passer rating of 43.2. Less than ideal when your offensive line allows 253 pressures — per Pro Football Focus, the most allowed by any front five in the league.
Here, against the Bills in Week 8, Tagovailoa has third-and-26 from his own 19-yard line with 2:32 left in the game, down 20-11. There’s still a chance for the Dolphins to stay in this game if Tagovailoa can make a big play. Unfortunately for the Dolphins, Tagovailoa is also facing a deep two-safety look, he starts to feel the pressure in the pocket as the routes develop, and an errant pass to Jaylen Waddle is intercepted by safety Jordan Poyer.
Without pressure: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
(Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports)
We’ll end with Lawrence again, and hope for the best in 2022. When he wasn’t pressured in 2021, the Jaguars’ franchise guy completed 279 of 410 passes for 2,769 yards, 1,419 air yards, nine touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and a passer rating of 83.1.
How do you throw that many interceptions without pressure? Failing to anticipate coverage is certainly one way to do that. If Lawrence is going to hit Marvin Jones up the numbers to the right, he needs to do it sooner. Based on his reads, it’s possible that Lawrence was expecting Laquon Treadwell to run a crosser instead of stopping, and he came to Jones late, but this is Not Good, and safety Kyle Dugger capitalizes.
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