Wolves offseason primer: KAT’s future, Anthony Edwards extension, more
When Minnesota acquired Rudy Gobert, they were betting on their All-Star trio featuring him, Anthony Edwards, and Karl-Anthony Towns to win them a lot of regular season games. Unfortunately, the three of them only played in 26 regular season games together of which they won 14. The organization will go into next year with the optimism that a clean slate of health, as well as continuity, will help meet expectations.
Minnesota’s offseason will mostly consist of managing their bench and extending core players. Extending Edwards and Jaden McDaniels to lucrative deals makes sense regardless of what happens next season. But the new CBA changes could make keeping all their top players untenable long-term, especially if they continue to hover around .500 next year.
Here is a preview of the 2023 offseason for the Minnesota Timberwolves.
State of the roster
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Minnesota is heading into the offseason with 11 players on roster and roughly $18 million below the projected $162 million luxury tax. Their proximity to the tax could lead them to make difficult decisions as far as constructing next year’s roster. Their two most important free agents are Naz Reid and Jaylen Nowell, both of whom have played their way to significant raises. They likely won’t be able to re-sign both players as well as utilize their mid-level exception if avoiding the tax next year is an objective.
But those financial decisions pale in comparison to upcoming ones that will affect their long-term books. Make no mistake, the 2023-24 season is a critical one that will determine the direction of the roster. This will probably be the last year with some roster flexibility if they decide to stick with this core.
This is the last season Edwards and McDaniels are on their inexpensive rookie contracts. It’s also the last one before Towns’ four-year, $224 million supermax extension kicks in. The expenses are adding up fast, and the Wolves will need to decide if they want to commit to spending on this group or take a step back.
How the new CBA affects them
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Their biggest challenge going forward will be keeping the team as deep as possible. Assuming their quartet is all on the roster in 2024-25, they should already be pretty close to the second apron with half their roster filled. The second apron is a new addition to the CBA that restricts teams above it from increasing their payroll. Teams can only go above by re-signing their own players, signing draft picks, and signings minimum players.
While it’s unclear if Minnesota even intends to be a taxpayer in the near future, it’ll be near impossible to field a deep competitive team unless they are. What also could stop them are the new luxury tax structures which are expected to be more punitive at the highest tiers. But if they do commit to spending, they will need to be proactive and start loading up on depth this season before they get too close to the second apron in 2024-25. This especially rings true considering they’re out four future first-round picks from the Gobert trade.
Speaking of that trade, it’s now become embarrassing on several levels. Not just because he struck Kyle Anderson during the regular season finale, but because Walker Kessler, whom the Wolves traded for Gobert, is looking like he could be the superior player in the next few seasons. If the locker room can’t move forward with Gobert, they’ll likely be looking at a fraction of a return that they originally gave up for him. Because of his contract and his low trade value right now, a Gobert trade is unlikely at this point.
Karl-Anthony Towns trade candidate?
If the Wolves can’t turn things around next year they probably won’t want to be obligated to the high payroll keeping this group together would require. Assuming Edwards and McDaniels are off limits and the market for Gobert isn’t robust, this could make Karl-Anthony Towns the logical cap casualty. It’s possible we start to hear trade rumors surrounding Towns over the next year.
Towns will become trade-eligible in July after his one-year trade restriction from signing his supermax extension expires. The eight-year veteran still holds a lot of trade value and he’s easier to move now while he has one year left before his extension kicks in. Trading him could help the Wolves recoup a lot of the draft picks and depth they originally gave up for Gobert.
Extension candidate: Anthony Edwards
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One of the first transactions we can expect the Wolves to execute this summer is extending Anthony Edwards to a maximum rookie-scale extension. Minnesota can extend him for up to five years, projected at $204 million, and include provisions for him to earn a higher maximum contract if he meets the criteria, such as earning All-NBA honors next season. This would give him an opportunity to earn a projected $245 million over five years.
Edwards has proven he’s worthy of the first-overall selection in his draft as he slowly is showing his ability to do it all. 24.6 points per game doesn’t have the levity it used to when accounting for scoring inflation, but it’s the way he scores that makes him special. He can get buckets off the dribble and in isolation, forcing opposing defenses to scheme around him. He has the explosiveness to get to the rim and finish effectively, and although he doesn’t get to the line at an elite level, his attempt rate is equal to that of several All-Star wings. Minnesota’s ceiling will go as far as he does.
Extension candidate: Jaden McDaniels
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Jaden McDaniels will also be eligible to sign a rookie-scale extension up until the day before the regular season starts. He will be able to extend for up to five years and historically, negotiations for non-All-Stars go down to the last hours before the deadline. He blossomed this year into one of the league’s best versatile defenders who seems destined to make a couple of All-Defense teams in his career.
The recent comparison that comes to the forefront for McDaniels is Mikal Bridges. McDaniels isn’t quite on the level Bridges was at the time when he signed his extension, but his recent stretch to end the season, featuring eight games where he scored at least 18 points, suggests he has room to grow offensively. McDaniels will likely be looking at a higher amount than Bridges’ four-year $90 million contract.
Free agent: Naz Reid
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As mentioned earlier, Naz Reid and Jaylen Nowell are set to become unrestricted free agents this summer if not extended. Both remain extension-eligible through June 30 for up to four years, $58 million, but it seems like the Wolves might want to test the market on them due to their proximity to the luxury tax.
Reid had an outstanding season in Minnesota where he filled in nicely during Towns’ long absence. He was one of the most sought-after players ahead of this year’s trade deadline with more than a dozen teams inquiring about him. It’s possible Reid receives offers this offseason for the full mid-level exception projected at four years, $52.5 million. Such a deal would put him on par contractually with some of the best bench bigs like Bobby Portis and Christian Wood.
Free agent: Jaylen Nowell
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Jaylen Nowell is also due for a significant raise this summer. He was Minnesota’s most reliable guard off the bench this season and a consistent source of scoring. The Wolves can really use both Nowell and Reid back in their rotation but it’s possible they let one or both go and replace them with a cheaper option with the mid-level exception. They may already need to be looking for a new guard with reports that Nowell is leaning toward leaving Minnesota in free agency.
2023-24 SALARY SITUATION
Players rostered: 11
Guaranteed salaries: $118.9 million
Non-guaranteed salaries: $25 million
Total salary: $143.9 million
Luxury tax space: $18.1 million
Apron space: $22.9 million
Second apron space: $32.9 million
Spending power:
Non-taxpayer Mid-level: $12.2 million
Bi-Annual: $4.5 million
Jarred Vanderbilt trade exception: $4,374,000 (expires July 6, 2023)
D’Angelo Russell trade exception: $3,688,117 (expires February 9, 2024)
Rudy Gobert
John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
2023-24 salary: $41,000,000
Remaining salary guaranteed: $131,482,758 through 2025-26
Additional notes:
2026-27 salary is a player option worth $46.7 million
Extension-eligible during the 2023 offseason
Karl-Anthony Towns
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2023-24 salary: $36,016,200
Remaining salary guaranteed: $256,633,000 through 2027-28
Additional notes:
2027-28 salary is a player option projected for $61 million
5 percent trade bonus currently worth $1.7 million
Trade-eligible starting on July 6
Mike Conley Jr.
Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
2023-24 salary: $24,360,000
Remaining salary guaranteed: $14,320,000
Additional notes:
2023-24 salary is partially guaranteed. Fully guaranteed if not waived by June 24
Extension-eligible throughout 2023-24
Anthony Edwards
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2023-24 salary: $13,534,817
Remaining salary guaranteed: $13,534,817
Additional notes:
Eligible to sign a rookie-scale extension during the offseason for up to five years
Kyle Anderson
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2023-24 salary: $9,219,512
Remaining salary guaranteed: $9,219,512
Jaden McDaniels
(Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)
2023-24 salary: $3,901,399
Remaining salary guaranteed: $3,901,399
Additional notes:
Eligible to sign a rookie-scale extension during the offseason for up five years
Wendell Moore
2023-24 salary: $2,421,720
Remaining salary guaranteed: $9,533,043 through 2025-26
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
2023-24 salary: $2,320,000
Remaining salary guaranteed: $0
Additional notes:
2023-24 salary is non-guaranteed. Fully guaranteed if not waived by June 30
$100,000 in annual unlikely incentives
Extension-eligible throughout 2023-24
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2023-24 salary: $1,997,238 (team option)
Remaining salary guaranteed: $0
Additional notes:
2023-24 salary is partially guaranteed for $380,718. Fully guaranteed if not waived by the league-wide cutdown date
2023-24 salary: $1,719,864
Remaining salary guaranteed: $1,719,864
Additional notes:
2024-25 and 2025-26 salaries are non-guaranteed
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
(Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
Cap hold: $15,028,899
Type of free agent: Bird (restricted)
Additional notes:
Qualifying offer: $7,073,602
(AP Photo/Hakim Wright Sr.)
Cap hold: $1,989,698
Type of free agent: Bird (unrestricted)
Additional notes
Can avoid free agency and extend with the Wolves by June 30. Eligible for a maximum of four years, $58 million
Naz Reid
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Cap hold: $1,989,698
Type of free agent: Bird (unrestricted)
Additional notes
Can avoid free agency and extend with the Wolves by June 30. Eligible for a maximum of four years, $58 million
Austin Rivers
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Cap hold: $1,989,698
Type of free agent: Bird (unrestricted)
Luka Garza
Cap hold: $1,774,999
Type of free agent: Non Bird (restricted)
Matt Ryan
Cap hold: $1,774,999
Type of free agent: Non Bird (restricted)
