Wizards keep 2023 first round pick, will be in NBA Draft lottery
Wizards keep '23 first round pick, will be in lottery originally appeared on NBC Sports Washington
The Wizards were eliminated from postseason contention on Sunday night and as a result, will be selecting in the first round of the 2023 NBA Draft. If they had made the playoffs, that would not be the case.
Washington's first-round pick this year was lottery protected, stemming from the 2020 trade they struck with the Rockets that sent John Wall to Houston and Russell Westbrook to D.C. 2023 was the first year that first-round pick could convey, but now it will be pushed to 2024 at the earliest.
Thanks to subsequent trades, the draft pick is owned by the Knicks, who ironically beat the Wizards on Sunday night to contribute to their elimination. Next year the protections will drop to top-12, then top-10 in 2025 and top-8 in 2026. If none of those convey, the Knicks will receive two second-round picks, in 2026 and 2027.
While the inevitable has been delayed, the Wizards can now move forward knowing they will have a spot in this year's NBA Draft lottery, set for May 16. Their official odds have yet to be determined.
The Wizards are currently tied with the Orlando Magic for the seventh-best odds at the No. 1 overall pick. If the Wizards entered the lottery with the seventh-best odds, they would hold a 7.5 percent chance at the No. 1 pick and a 31.9 percent chance of selecting in the top four.
With four games left to play, the Wizards are tied in the win column (34) with the Magic and the Pacers, with Indiana having one more loss (45). Washington can finish as high as fifth in the lottery, which would garner a 10.5% chance at the No. 1 pick and 42.1% odds for the top four.
That leaves quite a bit of variance. The Wizards can technically increase their odds of the top four by 10.2% if they moved up two spots in the lottery.
None of these factors will affect how the Wizards' players and coaching staff treat their final four games. Still, the facts are what they are, and the Wizards being eliminated from the postseason had major implications for their offseason. Instead of not having a first-round pick this year, they will have one and they could be picking very high.
Regardless of where they land in the lottery, this will be the sixth straight year the Wizards select in the top half of the first round of the NBA Draft and the fourth time in five years they have been in the lottery. They selected Troy Brown Jr. 15th overall in 2018, Rui Hachimura with the ninth pick in 2019, Deni Avdija ninth in 2020, Corey Kispert with the 15th pick in 2021 and Johnny Davis 10th overall in 2022.
The top prize in this year's draft is expected to be Victor Wembanyama, a 7-foot-2 French big man with the skills of a guard. Scoot Henderson of G League Ignite and Brandon Miller of Alabama are among the prospects most likely to round out the top three. NBC Sports Washington's NBA mock draft currently projects the Wizards to select Arkansas guard Anthony Black.
The draft is considered to be deep throughout the top 10, which bodes well for the Wizards no matter how the lottery goes for them. Whether they get a chance at Wembanyama or not, the opportunity will be there to find an impact player and possibly a franchise cornerstone.
