So-called experts don't have much hope for 2024 Reds. Should they? | Wittenmyer & Williams
Welcome to Wittenmyer & Williams – a point/counterpoint column from Enquirer Reds reporter Gordon Wittenmyer and columnist Jason Williams. Ahead of spring training, they discuss a national projection that has the Reds winning 78 games.
Williams: Love this time of year, and I know you do, too. Pitchers and catchers report on Tuesday.
Wittenmyer: For at least the next six weeks, it’s sunny days ahead for the Cincinnati Reds.
Williams: Wow, that sounds like almost a shot. What are you trying to say?
Wittenmyer: Hey man, don’t @ me. All I mean by that is we’re going to learn a lot about how good a team all this talent can produce by the time we get to Opening Day on March 28.
Williams: You’re starting to sound like all those so-called experts around the country. I don’t know if you saw these PECOTA rankings – which sounds like something some stats nerd created in his mom’s basement – but they’re not high on the Reds. Seventy-eight wins. Really? It doesn’t sound like the Reds are getting any more national respect than they were a year ago coming off a 100-loss season.
Wittenmyer: Why would they? You expect a World Series based on 82 wins last year? It was a wild, exciting, great season – no doubt. But now comes the hard part: They have to back it up.
More: Why National League Central is most interesting division in MLB as spring training opens
More: Reds' David Bell says India is open to being used differently
Wittenmyer & Williams: How changes in college sports impact Bearcats
Williams: Who said anything about a World Series? I certainly didn’t. But the core of a young team is back, and the Reds spent $108 million on free agents to fill holes and strengthen their depth. And depth was a big problem down the stretch last season as so many young players ran out of gas.
Wittenmyer: So was their godawful starting pitching all season long. Obviously, a lot of that had to do with injuries. Everybody looks healthy now. So credit where credit’s due: They did a good job adding a lot of depth to that group with guys like Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez. But they’ve still got to show it on the field for a full season. Which is why I’m looking so forward to getting to Arizona and seeing what this looks like this spring.
Williams: You have to at least feel good about the position group moving forward. It certainly looks in much better shape than it did at this time last year. Fans should be excited about a full season of Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain. Not to mention Noelvi Marte and Christian Encarnacion-Strand. And Spencer Steer being able to settle in at one position.
Wittenmyer: Maybe. I hope you’re right. But that “one position” you’re talking about is in the outfield, where Steer played for the first time in his life last year. Those other four guys you mentioned still have to show they can do the job for a full big-league season. You’re right about one thing. This is going to be exciting to watch just to see how it all plays out, especially in the spring.
Williams: Come on, man. It’s spring training. Isn’t hope supposed to spring eternal here? What’s your problem? You need a few more clouds to yell at, old man? Nobody in their right mind would come in predicting 90 or more wins for this Reds team. But tell me who they should be afraid of in their division?
Wittenmyer: Look, you punk kid. With age comes experience. And with that experience comes some appreciation for history. And what history should tell both of us is that there are a lot of questions they have to answer as they go to spring training. And you’re right about the division. The only team that should give them any cause for fear is themselves. If the Reds get their pitching figured out and they sort out the young infield, they’ll be in the race again.
Williams: That’s what I’ve been saying. If they at least hover around .500 into August, they’ll be in the thick of the wild-card race – and probably the division.
Wittenmyer: That’s another thing that history tells us. Even in a division that looks soft, all it takes is one team to get hot long enough to run away. So again, this is about trying to be that team and not just hanging around for a late run.
Williams: The Reds have enough talent to reasonably believe they could be the team that goes on the run.
Wittenmyer: But also with enough health questions and youth going into the spring to suggest it could go the other direction just as easily. I don’t expect that to happen. That’s not what I’m saying. If anything, it makes this spring the most intriguing for the Reds in years.
Williams: So if PECOTA says 78 wins for the Reds and the Cardinals are going to go from last to first place, what do you say?
Wittenmyer: Well, one thing that you didn’t mention was how wrong PECOTA often gets it, including last year. They picked the Reds to win 67 games, and they won 15 more than that. So if you want to put that into the equation and call it PECOTA+, then they would win 93 this year. But that’s not what I’m predicting.
Williams: Now be careful what you say next. Because Twitter’s going to think you’re a hater and predicting the Reds are going to stink.
Wittenmyer: What the hell do you know about Twitter? I thought I read that you quit that format.
Williams: Now if I could just quit you.
Contact Gordon Wittenmyer at gwittenmyer@enquirer.com and on X @GDubMLB. Reach Jason Williams at jwilliams@enquirer.com
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: MLB spring training: 'So-called experts' predict 78 wins for 2024 Reds
