Williams: These Bearcats won't be on your March Madness bracket. Here's why

Subject: Cincinnati Bearcats NCAA Tournament outlook

Message: Are the Bearcats a tournament team?

Reply: As Dan Hoard said on the 700 WLW pregame show Tuesday night: The Bearcats “are the epitome of a bubble team.”

Last four in. Last four out. Last four in. Last four out. Flip a coin. Oh, yeah, you need an answer.

I don't see the Bearcats making the NCAA Tournament.

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Tuesday’s home loss to 10th-ranked Iowa State really hurts the Bearcats’ chances. That’s the No. 9 team in the NET rankings on your home court. Gotta have that one, but the Bearcats suffered a nine-point loss and were never really in it in the second half. I was there. The Bearcats got outmanned. They were careless with the ball.

This team just can’t get over the hump, partly because it lacks a go-to guy in the clutch. We’ve seen enough of this team, and there’s no sign the Bearcats are going to go on a run. It’s probably going to take that to make the NCAA Tournament.

UC is now 2-6 in so-called Quad 1 games. The Bearcats are only 2-2 in Quad 2 games. They don’t have a terrible loss, but getting no quality wins in a mostly weak non-conference schedule could be held against them.

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You figure UC will need to finish at least with a .500 record in Big 12 play to lock up a tourney bid, and I don’t see it happening. The Bearcats are 4-7 in league play.

Predicting the rest of UC’s regular-season schedule:

∎ Wins (2): Oklahoma State (Feb. 21), West Virginia (March 9).

∎ Losses (3): at TCU (Feb. 24), at Houston (Feb. 27), at Oklahoma (March 5).

∎ Tossups (2): at UCF (Saturday), Kansas State (March 2).

Let’s say the Bearcats go 4-3 down the stretch with wins against UCF, Oklahoma State, Kansas State and West Virginia. None of those wins are going to move the needle enough. UC has no margin for error. A loss to any of those four teams could be devastating − and UCF is tough at home. The Knights, also 4-7 in Big 12 play, have home wins against Kansas and Oklahoma.

Nonetheless, winning four of the last seven would put the Bearcats at 19-12 overall, 8-10 in Big 12 play. That’s still bubble material, but it’ll force the NCAA Tournament selection committee to focus on UC’s non-conference schedule.

And barring a run in the Big 12 Tournament, the Bearcats are going to regret not beating Xavier and Dayton.

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This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: March Madness: Why UC Bearcats won't make NCAA basketball tournament