Will Dak Prescott or Jalen Hurts spearhead statement win? Why Cowboys, Eagles need different recipes for QB success

Ahead of a prime-time matchup between two of the NFL’s best and most popular teams, a player from neither organization may have shed the most light on the matchup this week.

Allow San Francisco 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa to explain to us the 9-3 Dallas Cowboys’ best chance to beat the 10-2 Philadelphia Eagles.

“Obviously, we put the blueprint out there,” said Bosa, whose 49ers trumped the Eagles 42-19 Sunday in Philadelphia. “Hopefully the Cowboys watch the tape. We made Jalen stay in the pocket and escape outside instead of those B gaps and it paid off … because Jalen’s looking at the rush every play.

“So yeah, you just have to be disciplined and not give him that quick escape route where it can get to those guys quick.”

Containing Hurts is not a new topic, nor is it groundbreaking for a defense to want to shore up B-gaps — the gaps between offensive guards and offensive tackles — that can become dangerous running lanes. However, opponents should heed Bosa’s guidance to strategize not only containing Hurts generally, but also more specifically sending his escapes outward rather than upfield. That understanding of Hurts’ mobility may be the key to supplanting the Eagles from atop the NFL.

It’s a caveat that contrasts how opponents, beginning with Philadelphia this week, should defend against Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott, who currently is tied for MVP favorite with the 49ers’ Brock Purdy at +300 odds per BetMGM. (Hurts trails slightly at +350.) Both Hurts and Prescott extend plays. But how they extend them, and how effectively they extend them, differs.

The Cowboys’ and Eagles’ ability to execute extended plays and defend them could determine the outcome of the NFC East matchup looming on “Sunday Night Football.” It could be the key to a game capable of confirming or shaking up the NFC playoff picture.

“If you watch football on Sunday, you see just so many that get created off of extension and secondary action,” Eagles offensive coordinator Brian Johnson said. “Just being able to read and react and play off of each other and finding the necessary space to give the quarterback the most opportunity to make the play.”

Cowboys offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer agreed.

“It’s a huge part of this game,” Schottenheimer said. “You watch top offenses, and most of them are very proficient and efficient in the scramble game.”

Prescott, Hurts threaten differently outside the pocket

Hurts’ dual-threat abilities are well-documented. The Eagles’ franchise man led all quarterbacks with 13 rushing touchdowns last year (five more than No. 2 Josh Allen) and ranked third among quarterbacks with 50.7 rushing yards per game.

Again this season, Hurts leads all quarterbacks with 12 rushing touchdowns in 12 games (runner-up Allen has nine) and ranks third in rushing yards per game. That mark has dipped to 35.8 yards per game.

The relative decrease in Hurts’ rushing production has become a topic of conversation in Philadelphia. After the 49ers held the Eagles to just 46 rushing yards (their lowest mark since Dec. 9, 2018), what role should Hurts’ ground game play in the offensive plan? Hurts and the Eagles are still extraordinarily effective with their “Brotherly Shove” quarterback sneak.

But where Hurts has struggled — and actually struggled last season, too, though his rushing masked it well — is in extending plays by air.

No quarterback has a higher extended dropback rate than Hurts’ 20.1%, per Next Gen Stats data, which classifies extended pass plays as those four-plus seconds after the snap. And yet, Hurts ranks 24th in yards per attempt on those extended plays (4.9) and 14th in success rate (26.7%). Those numbers plummet further when considering plays on which Hurts throws outside of the pocket.

Among 33 quarterbacks who have attempted at least 20 passes outside the pocket this season, Hurts ranks 30th in yards per attempt (4.5), 20th in passer rating (76.6) and 27th in total EPA generated (17.2). Hurts has thrown five touchdown passes outside the pocket this year, but also completed just 40% of attempts and absorbed 12 sacks.

Prescott, in contrast, rushes less than half as often as Hurts but is one of the league’s best at extending the play. He leads the NFL in yards per attempt (12.8) and success rate (40%) when extending plays beyond four seconds, per Next Gen Stats. And when throwing outside the pocket? Prescott ranks third in yards per attempt (9.8), fifth in passer rating (112.4) and first in total EPA generated (18.9). He’s sacked more often than Hurts — 20th-most, to Hurts’ 23rd — but has far more to gain as he creates.

Schottenheimer believes the Cowboys’ scramble chemistry is only growing.

“I think if you cut up most of our scrambles, you’d see usually the spacing is pretty clear but also usually the reaction is in our favor because we’re moving first,” Schottenheimer said. “Part of that is because the guys are aware that he’s doing that more now and doing it at a high level and got that ability.

“There is a feel that these guys have gained over time and it’s a testament to the way Dak orchestrates it in practice.”

How can Cowboys, Eagles ward off threat of extended play?

Prescott’s advantage extending plays doesn’t necessarily give the Cowboys an overall edge in the matchup. Hurts can undoubtedly create, even if — as Bosa said — it’s more likely to be from the pocket or through the B-gaps. He’s still accounted for 19 passing touchdowns and 12 rushing touchdowns in 12 games this season, his passer rating down from last season’s fourth place league-wide (101.5) but still above average at 13th (93.8).

Hurts is more than capable of producing at an extremely high level, and of producing late-game heroics, on display as recently as two weeks ago when he rushed for the game-winning touchdown in overtime to best the Buffalo Bills.

The Cowboys’ best chance, however, at making good on their 3.5-point favorite status (which is no doubt boosted by their 14-game winning streak at home) is forcing Hurts to hold the ball rather than allowing him a quick pass or escape.

Hurts’ longest time to throw (3.72 seconds) and highest extended dropback rate (42.2% of throws) came last week in the Eagles’ loss to the Niners. His second-highest of each mark — 3.4 seconds, 28.9% extended dropback rate — came in Philadelphia’s Week 6 loss to the Jets, per Next Gen Stats.

“They want to throw the quick slants or quick passes outside because of the concepts you run,” Cowboys pass rusher Micah Parsons said. “It’s just how they want to attack the weakness of your concept.”

Pressuring Hurts into these unfavorable situations is daunting, as the Eagles’ league-best 10 wins and No. 4 scoring offense featuring receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith suggests. Cowboys third-string quarterback Trey Lance, the 49ers’ previous No. 3 overall pick, was tasked with emulating Hurts’ mobility in practice this week.

“He’s always been an effective scrambler, and extending plays I think that defensively is one of the real topics that it’s hard to simulate,” Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn said this week of Hurts. “The quarterback is going to get outside the pocket to try to buy time and create. That's where a lot of their explosive plays have come as well. So it’s another added element and weapon of a mobile quarterback that you add not just the legs to run the ball, but legs to extend plays, and he’s certainly exceptional at that.”

The Eagles, meanwhile, are dialing in on their communication, spacing and tackling. Missed and ineffective tackles against the 49ers last Sunday freed San Francisco to gain 211 yards after the catch. And while the Cowboys’ weapons will threaten differently, Eagles defensive coordinator Sean Desai emphasized the importance of keeping defenders underneath to contain receiver CeeDee Lamb before he can make plays in space.

“This is a space game, and some teams attack different spaces differently,” Desai said. “Credit those guys at San Fran; they did a good job of attacking soft spots in our zones, and they hit us on some calls I’ve got to reflect on and put our guys in better positions on.

“When we’re not good in terms of the play call there, it exposes us in space.”

Both teams expect this game to expose not only their Week 14 strengths and weaknesses but also their postseason viability. Division football, on prime-time television, with the conference’s best record at stake?

“This is where the real football begins,” Prescott said. “This probably won’t be the last time we get them this season.”