Why the stakes have never been higher for Michigan football against Ohio State

It always felt as if this Michigan football season would be defined in binary terms.

Back in July, star running back Blake Corum said as much, telling reporters it was “win or bust,” championship or nothing. So, it only seems fitting that the final game on the schedule, a top-five showdown with arch nemesis with Ohio State, could create two distinct outcomes.

A win could mean the Wolverines preserve their national title dreams with a Big Ten East crown, prolong this golden age, and temporarily blunt the impact of the cheating scandal that has recently rocked Schembechler Hall.

A loss could end their shot at glory, fan the skepticism about their recent dominance of the Buckeyes and perhaps expedite an uncomfortable reckoning.

“This game is one of the defining moments for a season,” quarterback J.J. McCarthy said Monday. “It defines the future of the program.”

In a rivalry saturated with hyperbole, McCarthy’s comment isn’t an exaggeration. He saw first-hand how one result in this 126-year feud can change everything. The Wolverines’ 42-27 triumph over the Buckeyes in 2021 flipped the narrative about Jim Harbaugh. He went from being an embattled coach tarnished by his unmet expectations into a conquering hero who had returned the Wolverines to national prominence. The victory restored his tenure and recalibrated his team’s trajectory, setting it on the course to claim the past two Big Ten titles and continue a remarkable run when Michigan has netted 23 consecutive conference wins.

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But the good times could conceivably end Saturday, which adds to the magnitude of a game that may determine the Wolverines’ fortunes in the years to come.

When asked if he felt this latest clash with the Buckeyes could have long-term consequences, Harbaugh sighed and replied, “I don’t have a crystal ball.”

But he seems to recognize the enormous stakes.

“It’s all about this game,” he declared.

It will either be the Wolverines’ ticket to the College Football Playoff or the roadblock that derails their journey to the top of college football.

It could also be the prelude for a smooth transition toward the Big Ten’s new age or the rocky beginning to a period fraught with uncertainty.

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Harbaugh had to know this was always a possibility. Long before a ball was snapped, a pass was thrown, and a handoff was delivered this season, he understood the team he assembled in 2023 may earn Michigan a permanent place among the sport’s elite. There was no question it offered him the best shot at winning it all.

He cooed about the roster, appraising it as Michigan’s best collection of talent since he returned to Ann Arbor almost nine years ago to coach the Wolverines. He also boasted that he could foresee as many as 20 upperclassmen selected in the draft next April. With Michigan facing a backloaded schedule that featured only two games against ranked opponents, Harbaugh recognized the Wolverines couldn’t squander this rare opportunity.

So did the players.

When they recruited Josh Wallace to come join them from UMass, the transfer cornerback said his future teammates kept telling him that the only way 2023 would be deemed a success was if Michigan is the last team standing in Houston on Jan. 8.

“Championship or bust,” Wallace recalled to the Free Press back in June. “Yeah, that’s the mindset.”

It left the Wolverines with little margin for error at the outset. But somehow it has become even thinner now that Michigan faces the existential threat of two active NCAA investigations and the tortuous drip-drip-drip of bad news stemming from a sign-stealing imbroglio that surfaced four weeks ago when former U-M staffer Connor Stalions was first implicated as the mastermind of a years-long impermissible in-person advance scouting scheme designed to pilfer the play signals of future opponents.

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The controversy has engulfed the Wolverines and cast a pall over their championship quest. The conference, on Nov. 10, suspended Harbaugh the final three games after it found Michigan had violated the league’s sportsmanship policy. A week later, linebackers coach Chris Partridge was fired for an undisclosed reason.

As the negative headlines mounted, people began questioning the legitimacy of Michigan’s achievements of the past three seasons, when the Wolverines have gone 36-3. Each game they’ve played over the last month has been scrutinized and parsed by fans looking for evidence that would either substantiate the effect of Stalions’ alleged machinations on Michigan’s prosperity or disprove their impact.

“All the hours we put in just being diluted by a scandal and all that — it’s unfortunate,” McCarthy said. “But it’s out of our control.”

It’s a helpless feeling for McCarthy and the Wolverines. But it can be alleviated if Michigan wins Saturday. A victory, after all, would maintain Michigan’s grip over its immediate fate and give it a better opportunity to make the best of this perilous time. A loss, on the other hand, could trigger the fall of the Wolverines and set the program adrift.

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“We all know the stakes,” acting coach and offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore said.

But in a season when everything has been viewed through a binary prism, they have never seemed so high heading into a game that already carries so much meaning. As Corum said back in the summer, it feels like it’s win or bust.

Contact Rainer Sabin at rsabin@freepress.com. Follow him @RainerSabin.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Future of Michigan football is on the line vs. Ohio State