Why Nashville SC can — and can't — make a deep run in MLS Cup playoffs

Nashville SC saw its regular season end with a whimper in Saturday's 1-0 loss to the New York Red Bulls at Geodis Park.

That being said, the match meant far less for Nashville than for its opponents. While the Red Bulls needed to win in order to make the MLS Cup playoffs, Nashville had already wrapped up a spot in the postseason tournament, with only its seeding to be determined.

Nashville (13-10-11, 49 points) is the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference and will face No. 2 seed Orlando City SC in a best-of-three first-round series starting next weekend.

Game 1 is at Orlando's Exploria Stadium Monday, Oct. 30 at 6 p.m. CT. Game 2 is at Geodis Park Tuesday, Nov. 7 at 8 p.m. Game 3, if necessary, will be in Orlando Sunday, Nov. 12 at 4 p.m. All games will be broadcast on Apple TV.

Nashville SC has made the postseason in all four of its seasons as an MLS franchise, but has never gone past the conference semifinals. Here are two reasons Nashville can go farther than that this season — and one big reason it can't.

Why Nashville can make a run

Stout defense

A tough, well-organized defense has been at the heart of each of coach Gary Smith's teams at Nashville, and 2023 has been no different in that regard.

In 2020, Nashville allowed the third-fewest goals of any team in Major League Soccer (22). In 2021, it was tied for the league lead with 33 goals allowed. Nashville conceded 41 goals last season, which was tied for the league's fourth-best total. This season, Nashville ranks once again atop MLS, having given up 32 goals in 34 matches.

"We should be very proud of that," Smith said, "It's an extremely difficult Eastern Conference, and to concede as few goals as we have, I think it has been a very good feat."

Nashville features one of the most experienced back lines in MLS, including United States national team members Walker Zimmerman and Shaq Moore and 10-season veteran Daniel Lovitz. That's not to mention midfielders Anibal Godoy and Dax McCarty, who share over 600 MLS appearances between them.

Leagues Cup run

Nashville's regular-season play since mid-June has been uninspiring, but its best soccer came during a situation similar to what it will face during the playoffs, which Smith hopes will give his team confidence.

In July and August, Nashville advanced to the Leagues Cup final, which included a stretch of four straight victories in elimination games. While Nashville needed penalties to beat FC Cincinnati and Club America, it had two of its strongest performances of the season in the quarterfinals (5-0 over Minnesota United) and semifinals (2-0 over CF Monterrey).

In the first round of the MLS Cup playoffs, games tied after 90 minutes will proceed to penalties, like each game during the Leagues Cup elimination round. In the last three rounds, games will consist of 90 minutes, extra time and then a shootout.

One of the more encouraging aspects of Nashville's run to the final, where it lost to Lionel Messi's Inter Miami on penalties, was an abundance of goals from players not named Hany Mukhtar. While Mukhtar was still an integral part of the attack, with two goals and six assists, Nashville scored 16 goals in seven games and had 10 different players find the net.

Why Nashville won't make a run

Lack of offense

Mukhtar, the reigning MLS MVP, is one of a handful of players in the league who can win a game on his own. And while it makes sense that Nashville relies heavily on Mukhtar's production, the difference between him and his teammates is drastic.

Mukhtar has taken 49 shots on goal in MLS play, with the next-closest Nashville player being Fafa Picault with 17. His 15 goals in league competition are triple that of Picault's total and his 11 assists are more than double that of Daniel Lovitz and Shaq Moore, who both have five.

MORE: Nashville SC falls to New York Red Bulls on stoppage-time penalty in regular-season finale

Overall, Nashville is tied for 20th in MLS with 39 goals, and its recent form has been even worse, with four shutouts in its last five games. Smith doesn't see it as a feature of his team, but more about bad breaks at bad times.

"Maybe there is a trend there, maybe there is something that's a little more disturbing than I'm looking at," Smith said. "But I think if you take the games on their own, there are moments and opportunities that certainly should be taken more advantage of."

Jacob Shames can be reached by email at jshames@gannett.com and on Twitter @Jacob_Shames.

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: MLS Cup playoffs: Why Nashville SC can, and can't, make a run