Why Mississippi State can reach Sweet 16 in our 2024 March Madness predictions

STARKVILLE — A year ago, Mississippi State basketball coach Chris Jans was filled with uneasiness as the Bulldogs watched the revealing of the NCAA Tournament field.

The Bulldogs were a bubble team, but they snuck into the field of 68 as one of the last four teams in. A trip to Dayton, Ohio, for the First Four awaited them.

On Sunday, Jans didn't feel as stressed watching the bracket unveiling − though MSU (21-13) was part of the last region shown. Mississippi State made the cut as a No. 8 seed slated to face No. 9 seed Michigan State (19-14) in the first round of the West Region.

The Bulldogs will play at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina, on Thursday (11:15 a.m., CBS).

"It was cool," Jans said of the unveiling. "It was fun. That's one of those moments that you never forget, to get to see (players') joyful reaction."

If Mississippi State can get past Michigan State, it likely face No. 1 seed North Carolina (27-7) − unless the winner of a play-in game between No. 16 seeds Howard (18-16) and Wagner (16-15) pulls off a stunning upset.

As the Bulldogs prepare for a March Madness run, here's a look at why Mississippi State will − or won't − make the Sweet 16.

Why Mississippi State will reach the Sweet 16

The Bulldogs have a strong defense

When All-SEC forward Tolu Smith was asked why teams shouldn't want to face Mississippi State his answer was simple.

"Defense," Smith said. "That's what we live on. That's what we put our hat on. We put our hat on defense. We thrive off of that. That's how we play good. Every time we have a good game, it's because of defense."

The Bulldogs allow 69.1 points per game, which ranks in the top 90 nationally. They've proven they can limit elite guards such as Michigan State's Tyson Walker and North Carolina's RJ Davis. Tennessee guard Dalton Knecht, the SEC Player of the Year, was held to 14 points on 4-17 against the Bulldogs in the SEC quarterfinals.

Mississippi State has Josh Hubbard

It's often said NCAA Tournament games come down to guard play. If that's the case, Mississippi State has one of the top scoring guards on its side.

Freshman Josh Hubbard was an All-SEC selection this season after averaging 17.1 points per game. In the last eight games, he's scoring 25.4 points per contest. Though he's young, some of his best moments have come in big games − including a 25-point showing in a win against Tennessee on Jan. 10.

Why Mississippi State won't reach the Sweet 16

MSU's offense can have ugly stretches

Mississippi State's offense can get stagnant at times, as was made evident in the second round of the conference tournament. While the Bulldogs defeated LSU 70-60, the victory was fueled by a 48-point second half.

Mississippi State shot just 29.2% in the first half and didn't make a field goal for the final 7:42 of the period. It was a glimpse into the struggles of a team ranking outside the top 200 nationally in 3-point percentage as the Bulldogs made only one of their 10 attempts from deep in the first half.

North Carolina, Michigan State have a strong March Madness history

Michigan State entered the season as the No. 4 team in the country. The campaign hasn't panned out as expected − highlighted by uncertainty on Selection Sunday about the Spartans' at-large chances.

However, coach Tom Izzo has proven repeatedly that his teams find success at the right time. As a No. 7 seed last season, the Spartans made a run to the Sweet 16.

North Carolina is another blueblood that has found success despite the retirement of longtime coach Roy Williams in 2021. In the first season without Williams at the helm, the Tar Heels lost in the national title game under coach Hubert Davis. While UNC didn't make the NCAA Tournament a year ago, it quickly returned to form this season.

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2024 March Madness bracket prediction for Mississippi State

Mississippi State will lose in the second round against North Carolina: The Spartans have been struggling recently, having lost five of seven against an unimpressive Big Ten slate. However, getting to the second weekend will be a tall task for the Bulldogs. March Madness is known for its upsets, but I'm not ready to pick Mississippi State to beat a top-seeded team yet.

Stefan Krajisnik is the Mississippi State beat writer for the Clarion Ledger. Contact him at skrajisnik@gannett.com or follow him on the X platform, formerly known as Twitter, @skrajisnik3.

This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Mississippi State in Sweet 16 in March Madness predictions. Here’s why