Why Lions' latest fast start may not lead to another second-half collapse
Is there a fraud at Ford Field?
The Detroit Lions have been arguably the biggest surprise in the NFL this season. They are 6-2 under new coach Jim Caldwell, and if you put on some Honolulu blue-colored glasses, they could be unbeaten. A serviceable field goal kicker would have beaten the Bills and perhaps the Panthers as well. The Lions rank No. 1 in total defense, which is staggering considering they were 16th last year and then spent the offseason juicing the offense by signing wide receiver Golden Tate and drafting tight end Eric Ebron.
Making the season's first half even more improbable is the fact that Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush have been injured. Matthew Stafford has been winning with guys like running back Theo Riddick, who has as many touchdowns as Johnson (two), and Corey Fuller, who has as many scores as Bush (one). A case could be made that the Lions will be even better after the bye week, with both Johnson and Bush returning.
But Lions fans have seen this movie before.
Last year, Detroit roared into the second half of the season at 6-3, only to implode in November and December and miss the playoffs. That collapse was a faint echo of 2011, when the Lions entered the bye week at 6-2 and lost three of four before finishing 10-6. The season ended when they got trampled by the Saints in the franchise's only playoff game this century.
Whatever optimism Detroit has now will surely be tested in the next three weeks, as the Lions face Miami, Arizona and New England back-to-back-to-back. Those three teams have six total losses and have won a combined 12 straight games. So a season that seems destined for January could be off the rails by December. And if you want to get really bleak, it's possible Ndamukong Suh will move on after the season and Johnson isn't getting any younger (he'll be 30 next year). Another missed chance at postseason glory will revive the Barry Sanders era comparisons – and not in a good way.
There is reason to believe the Lions are something more than a mediocre team with a solitary victory over a team with a winning record (Green Bay at home). They appear to have had elements missing in past years, namely discipline and depth.
Notice you haven't heard much about Suh this season. No pro wrestling moves, no stomps, no kicks to the groin. Just monstrous play. An English newspaper described him as a "perturbed ostrich," and that's probably the most complimentary label he's received in the media all year. Whether that's explained by a desire to lead or a desire to get the most possible money from another franchise next year, it's filtered through the team.
The self-destruction that wrecked the Lions in the past is now happening to opponents. Detroit made fourth-quarter comebacks in each of its past two games by forcing errors rather than committing them. The near-obligatory personal foul penalties that blemished so many games have mostly vanished. Is that because of Caldwell's calm? Too soon to tell, but it's hard to imagine the new Lions coach turning around and screaming at home fans like Jim Schwartz did last season.
Suh has more help on defense than ever. That's because the Lions, known for embarrassing whiffs in their personnel department, have strung together some good decisions. Perhaps the best was signing Glover Quin from Houston before last season; he's been a stalwart in a secondary that's desperately needed support, and he made the interception that ended up changing the outcome of the game against the Saints two weeks ago. Quin has had support from another safety signing, James Ihedigbo from Baltimore, and Rashean Mathis, who has been a pleasant surprise in his 12th NFL season. The Lions have prevented the big play (for the most part) against Brees, Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers. That's allowed Stafford chances to win games late, which he's done via another off-season acquisition, Tate. It's fair to say the Lions would be .500 or worse without Tate in the lineup. Stafford, prone to throwing off his back foot when under a lot of pressure, has looked confident despite not having Johnson and Bush as safety valves. Detroit is on pace for 22 turnovers this season; last year, the Lions finished with 34.
Perhaps the biggest surprise: a very strong 2013 draft. Seven players picked last year have seen time this season, including Ziggy Ansah, Darius Slay, Riddick and Fuller. Add the emergence of 2009 pick DeAndre Levy, one of the best linebackers in the league, and the Lions' front office seems to know what it's doing lately. A team formerly filled with scattered stars and gaping holes now has some layers.
Is it enough? That's what November will show. One-sided losses in the next three games will make close wins over the Jets, New Orleans and Atlanta seem more lucky than good. Strong showings, however, will force the rest of the league to take the Lions seriously. That in itself would be a pretty rare feat for a franchise with a grand total of seven playoff wins.
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