Where Oregon State baseball sits in NCAA Tournament projections after Pac-12 tourney exit

So, what now for Oregon State baseball?

The No. 6 Beavers arrived in Scottsdale this week with hopes of capturing a Pac-12 Tournament and solidifying their status as one of the top eight teams in the nation.

Instead, Mitch Canham's squad found itself on the wrong end of an upset loss to Stanford Wednesday and then gutted out a close win over Arizona State Thursday. That wasn't enough to advance them out of their tournament pool and secure a spot in the semifinals, though.

After an early conference tournament exit, the Beavers are now left with their postseason fate hanging in the balance. Their chances of receiving a top-eight NCAA Tournament seed — and in turn, earning the right to host a super regional if they advance that far — are almost certainly dashed.

At this point, hosting a regional in Corvallis isn't a certainty for OSU.

Here is a look at where the Beavers stand in the latest NCAA Tournament projections ahead of the 9 a.m. Monday selection show on ESPN2.

D1Baseball

According to D1Baseball, Oregon State is projected to host a regional at Goss Stadium — but only barely. The publication has tabbed the Beavers as the No. 14 overall seed in the Corvallis region. There, they are projected to host No. 2 Wake Forest, No. 3 St. John's and No. 4 Air Force.

According to D1 Baseball, Mississippi State, Dallas Baptist and Wake Forest are all teams that could potentially leapfrog the Beavers if they perform well this weekend.

Baseball America

Baseball America is less optimistic about OSU's chances of hosting at this point. The publication has the Beavers tabbed as the 16th and final national seed in the Corvallis region, with No. 2 Mississippi State, No. 3 UConn and No. 4 Nicholls State filling out the rest of the region.

Mississippi State's Thursday loss to Vanderbilt was a deciding factor there. But the Bulldogs are slated to face No. 1-ranked Tennessee in the SEC Tournament Friday evening. A win there would almost certainly push MSU ahead of the Beavers.

Other teams to watch

Arizona

The No. 18 Wildcats may not be as talented of a team on paper as the Beavers are, and they dropped two of three games to OSU in Tucson last weekend. But they won the Pac-12 regular season title and would seem to be the front runners to capture the Pac-12 Tournament now that Oregon State and Oregon have been eliminated.

If Arizona runs the table in Scottsdale this weekend, it is difficult to imagine a scenario where the Wildcats don't earn the right to host a regional.

Duke

The Blue Devils sit at No. 17 in the national rankings, No. 19 in the RPI and scored a big win over No. 12 NC State earlier this week. Saturday's ACC Tournament semifinal showdown with Miami will be pivotal; if Duke wins there, it will have an opportunity to further bolster its resume in the title game against either No. 3 Clemson, No. 10 Florida State, No. 16 Virginia or Louisville.

Jarrid Denney covers high school sports and Oregon State for the Statesman Journal. He can be reached at JDenney@salem.gannett.com or on X @jarrid_denney

This article originally appeared on Salem Statesman Journal: NCAA Tournament projection for Oregon State Beavers baseball