Where do the Ducks go now? Assessing all options for Oregon and the Pac-12
Almost 400 days ago, the USC Trojans and UCLA Bruins turned the Pac-12 world upside down with the announcement they were skipping town and heading to the Big Ten Conference.
Since then, chaos and uncertainty have become the norm.
Both of those characteristics were dialed up once again on Thursday afternoon when it was announced that the Colorado Buffaloes were leaving the Pac-12 Conference for a new home. This time, the Big 12 Conference is waiting with open arms to further weaken one of its rival leagues.
The move for Colorado will not take place until 2024, but it will have ramifications that could affect the world of college football far sooner.
For fans of the Oregon Ducks, this move by the Buffaloes has the potential to completely change their outlook. Oregon is viewed as a national brand, and it doesn’t want to be left as the last standing man on the Titanic.
It’s unclear what the Ducks are going to do in the future, but over the past few months — and few days — it has becoming increasingly apparent the Pac-12 is starting to whither away. There seems to be a strong notion that unless commissioner George Kliavkoff can deliver a media rights deal that far exceeds expectations — something that has never seemed less likely at the moment — major defectors could follow in Colorado’s footsteps.
So looking ahead, what are some of the options that are available to Oregon, and what might the Pac-12 do in order to keep the ship afloat? We have a few ideas.
Oregon: Stay Put, Dominate the Pac-12
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One of the biggest remaining appeals about the Pac-12 conference is the relative ability to dominate the landscape and get an easy route to the College Football Playoff once it expands to 12 teams in 2024. Should Oregon, Washington and Utah stay put out west over the next few years, they have the be licking their chops at the prospect of making it to a Pac-12 title game without USC in the way, with a potential “win-and-in” scenario to get into the playoff.
While being the big fish in a small, relatively poorly compensated pond may not be the most appealing thing in the world, it certainly has its upsides.
Pac-12: Add 1 School, Get to 10 Members
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Going into the 2024 season, the Pac-12 will be down to nine schools. That can’t stand. What makes the most sense is they add at least one to get back to double digits. The best option to replace Colorado would be San Diego State. The media market is comparable, and the level of competition is relatively equal in football. The Aztecs add a highly-successful basketball program to the conference.
Unfortunately, the Pac-12 complicated an SDSU addition by failing to get a media rights deal before the Mountain West exit fee doubled for the Aztecs. Now they could presumably still add SDSU, but it would cost $34 million to do so.
Would adding SDSU keep the top teams in the conference — Oregon and Washington — happy enough to stick around? That’s unclear, but it’s worth a shot.
Oregon: Pray for a Big Ten Life Raft
It’s no secret that both Oregon and Washington have aspirations of following USC and UCLA to the Big Ten. At the moment, that is the richest conference in the nation, and you could argue it is one of the most talent-rich conferences in the nation as well, especially with the addition of USC.
Former Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren was interested in adding both the Ducks and Huskies before he left to take over the Chicago Bears. New Big Ten commissioner, Tony Petitti, has not been so hot on that prospect, saying the conference needs to focus on the assimilation of both the Trojans and Bruins before further expansion westward.
If you’re Oregon or Washington, you’re counting your lucky stars and hoping there is a change of heart somewhere soon.
Getting to the Big Ten would be a massive blessing for the Ducks, even if they have to accept a fractional revenue share to do so. Escaping the Pac-12 uncertainty and replacing it with a cushy spot in one of the two most powerful conferences in the nation would be a massive step up for Oregon, and would ensure it is playing the most elite competition going forward, working to stay at the forefront of the national landscape for decades to come.
Pac-12: Add 3 Schools, Get Back to 12 Members
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We already looked at what the Pac-12 would stand to gain by adding San Diego State to the mix, but if it was really ambitious in the coming months after securing a media rights deal, the conference could look to add three members and get back to 12.
Aside from SDSU, it feels like SMU, Boise State, Fresno State or UNLV make some sense based on geographic location, media market size and relative success in major sports.
The major problem with this idea, however, is Oregon and Washington may not be on board. Assuming the grant of rights in the Pac-12 calls for equal revenue sharing among the members, the Ducks and Huskies might not be too keen on adding additional members, especially if they don’t bring a whole lot to the table when it comes to market size or historic success.
The only way I see this type of rapid expansion working is if a sort of unequal revenue share is agreed to.
Oregon: Follow Colorado to the Big 12
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While the Big Ten is certainly the preferred destination for Oregon, it’s hard to argue against the idea that landing in the Big 12 would be better than getting stuck in a sinking Pac-12 Conference.
Colorado jumped ship on Thursday because it determined a $31.7 million share of the Big 12 revenue package was better than the uncertainty that came with waiting for a Pac-12 deal to be announced. Could Oregon decide the same thing and try to jump ship as well? There have been rumors that the Ducks and Washington Huskies were meeting with Big 12 presidents this week, potentially discussing a move. While we need to wait for things to be confirmed before sounding the alarm, I think that it is at least smart to consider a world in which Oregon heads to the Big 12 instead of the Big Ten.
Should that happen, the Ducks would still stand to be one of the biggest national brands in the conference, competing with Baylor, Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Texas Tech. On the basketball side of things, this would also be a great move for Oregon, since the Big 12 is widely regarded as the best conference in the nation.
Pac-12: Whither Away, Merge with Mountain West
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This one feels less like an option and more like an unfortunate reality should the other plans fall through.
With the way events are trending, I can’t say it would be a shock in a year’s time to see the Pac-12 left with four teams looking for a place to go. In this scenario, Oregon and Washington leave — either to the Big Ten or Big 12 — and the Four Corner schools — Arizona, Arizona State and Utah — follow Colorado to the Big 12.
That would leave Oregon State, Washington State, California and Stanford as the last remaining members of misfit island. Maybe Stanford goes independent; maybe Cal gets a life raft somewhere. It feels likely, though, that this scenario would give an opportunity for the Mountain West to merge with the remaining teams and form a Pacific Coast Conference of sorts.
It would be a sad reality, but I can’t help admitting I could easily see things playing out that way.
Oregon: Stay in Pac-12 Indefinitely
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For Oregon, this option would be the equivalent of sitting on your hands and hoping something good comes along. Let me be clear in saying that I do not recommend this option.
The Ducks could trick themselves into thinking the right move is to stand pat and hold out hope for a Big Ten offer, turning down the Big 12 and remaining in the Pac-12 with hopes the future gets a little bit brighter. Should events not break the right way, there’s the chance the Big Ten never comes calling, and Oregon is left as one of the last people sitting at a table, with nobody left to talk to.
I don’t foresee this happening. Oregon has always been an aggressive and forward-thinking program that is ahead of the curve on most things. Rob Mullens — and Phil Knight, for that matter — doesn’t strike me as someone who will be OK with sitting back while others make moves around him.
