Where Detroit Red Wings stand in NHL draft lottery: Why it won't be No. 1 again
The Detroit Red Wings came close to making the playoffs this year — and that means they won't come close to getting the No. 1 pick in the draft.
The NHL draft lottery is Tuesday (6:30 p.m., ESPN) at the NHL Network studio in Secaucus, New Jersey, and will determine the order of the first 16 teams to pick when the first round of the draft is held in Las Vegas on June 28. The rest will be determined as teams exit the playoff race.
The Wings (42-31-9) came within a tiebreaker of making the playoffs in April, and with that chase came an 18th-place finish — or, for lottery purposes, 15th from the bottom. That means even if their luck finally changes and they move up, the best they can do is get the No. 5 selection.
There will be two drawings, one for the No. 1 pick and one for the No. 2 selection. Once the two top picks have been established, the remaining teams will be assigned Nos. 3-16 based on inverse order of the final regular-season standings.
Teams only can move up 10 slots, so only the top 11 teams in the lottery are eligible to receive the No. 1 pick. The San Jose Sharks have the best odds of winning the No. 1 pick at 18.5%. The Chicago Blackhawks, who won the lottery last year, will have the second-best odds at 13.5%, followed by the Anaheim Ducks at 11.5%.
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The Wings have just 0.5% odds to move up, a 0.5% chance of picking at No. 16, and a 99% chance of staying put at No. 15.
The Wings will miss out on presumed No. 1 pick Macklin Celebrini. Instead, should they get the fifth pick, the Wings could be looking at a draft board that still features players alone the lines of forwards Cayden Lindstrom, Konsta Helenius, Ivan Demidov and Berkly Catton, and defensemen Zeev Buium (brother of 2021 Wings pick Shai Buium), Sam Dickinson, Artyom Levshunov (Michigan State), Anton Silayev and Carter Yakemchuk.
Conventional wisdom is to take the best available player when selecting in the first round, but the scales might tip a bit towards a forward, especially a center, if there's a big and skilled one on the board. The Wings took Nate Danielson last year at No. 9 and Marco Kasper at No. 8 in 2022, but neither projects to be a top-line star.
Since their historic 25-season playoff streak ended in 2017, the Wings have been part of the yearly event that determines who gets to make the first pick in the draft. It's never been them. They haven't even had the good fortune to pick second or third.
In 2017 they were bumped from seventh to ninth (selecting Michael Rasmussen, who has become a solid bottom-six forward and penalty killing contributor).
In 2018, the Wings dropped from fifth to sixth, where they passed on defenseman Quinn Hughes (a 2024 Norris Trophy finalist) and selected forward Filip Zadina, who turned out to be a bust.
In 2019, the Wings dropped from fourth to sixth, but Yzerman got it so right in his first year as general manager when he chose defenseman Moritz Seider, the 2022 Calder Trophy winner.
In 2020, the Wings finished at the bottom, had 18.5% odds to pick first — and were pushed back to fourth. At least Yzerman again made a great pick in forward Lucas Raymond.
It seemed like a win in 2021 when the Wings at least stayed pat, at No. 6, where they chose defenseman Simon Edvinsson. They stayed in place again in 2022, at No. 8, choosing Kasper. They stayed in place for a third straight year in 2023, using the No. 9 pick on Danielson.
Contact Helene St. James at hstjames@freepress.com. Follow her on Twitter @helenestjames.
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Lottery ticket
What: 2024 NHL draft lottery.
Fast facts: 6:30 p.m. Tuesday, NHL Network studio, Secaucus, New Jersey; ESPN.
The rules: The NHL will select the top two teams in June’s draft from the 16 non-playoff franchises based on a weighted system.
The top pick: The Sharks have the best odds, at 18.5%, with the Blackhawks No. 2 at 13.5%.
Wings’ odds: The Red Wings enter the lottery at No. 15, with a 0.5% chance of “winning” the No. 1 pick. Teams can only move up 10 spots with a lottery victory, meaning the Wings will pick either fifth or 15th.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: NHL draft lottery: What to know about Detroit Red Wings' chances
