Where will Cincinnati Bearcats basketball continue their postseason?
Nothing is ever written in stone outside of that which is Biblical, but had the University of Cincinnati Bearcats knocked off No. 3 seed Baylor in the Phillips 66 Big 12 Basketball Championships they would feel much more comfortable watching NCAA Selection Sunday festivities.
Instead, after a quick start that made it look as if they could be up to winning three in three days, the Bearcats faded in the stretch and were sent home by the Bears. Even that win wasn't a lock-stock guarantee by the pundits of Bracketville, but it would have given them another Quad 1 victory and a chance to add to their resumé vs. No. 2 seed Iowa State.
Now, they wait for a tournament, a bid, and a site.
Where will UC basketball go?
A Saturday review of the noted bracketologists (ESPN's Joe Lunardi, Jerry Palm of CBS, Mike DeCourcy of Fox Sports) says UC will be on the outside looking in despite the trio all having the Big 12 with nine entries.
Lunardi, who will not be getting a Christmas card from UC coach Wes Miller, made mention of the Bearcats Friday, but only in the category of teams after the next four out (the next 9-12 teams bypassed). By Saturday morning, they were off of his dance card.
"I don't know how this league doesn't get a massive amount of bids," head coach Wes Miller said. "There's nothing like this in college basketball right now. I think I have an NCAA tournament team. Good thing Joe Lunardi isn't on the NCAA Selection Committee because he ain't been on our side. I believe this league deserves 10 or 11 teams in the tournament. We'll learn a lot about what the Selection Committee values. Cincinnati basketball? We play postseason basketball. We're going to be ready to play."
Possible 'last 4 in' teams
Lunardi listed Colorado, Seton Hall, Virginia and Texas A&M on Friday. By Saturday, he had flipped to Oklahoma, St. John's, Virginia and New Mexico.
Palm liked St. John's, Northwestern, Texas A&M and Pitt. DeCourcy's last update Saturday had Virginia, Texas A&M, Seton Hall and New Mexico.
UC's argument via NCAA NET
The NCAA NET rankings are the primary measuring numbers used to seed the tournament. Clearly, it's not all math though. Before their loss to Baylor, UC had climbed to No. 34 with back-to-back tournament wins over West Virginia and No. 16 Kansas. Even after running out of steam vs. Baylor, UC was at No. 38 heading into the weekend along with a No. 38 KenPom.com rating.
That NCAA NET ranking would be better than Mississippi State's Friday tally of 42 (which rose to 32 after their takedown of No. 5 Tennessee). It is better than the Saturday numbers of Pitt's 41, Texas A&M's 42, Northwestern's 54, Virginia's 55, Providence's 57 and Seton Hall's 66.
Of Big 12 teams considered "in" UC's NET is better than TCU's 43 and Oklahoma's 46. "Bubble" team Kansas State was the Big 12 No. 10 seed to UC's No. 11 but the Wildcats have a NET of 70.
What's the difference?
It probably comes down to Quad 1 wins (defeating a NET top 30 team at home, top 50 on a neutral court and top 75 in a road contest). UC's win over Kansas gave the Bearcats four.
Among those deemed "in or close to in" (as of Saturday) Oklahoma, Mississippi State, Northwestern, St. John's, Colorado, Nebraska and Pitt have four just like the Bearcats. Colorado State and Providence have six, with Clemson, Texas A&M, TCU and Seton Hall with five. Virginia and Florida Atlantic have just two. Kansas State, also a "bubble team" from the Big 12, had five and coach Jerome Tang did a post-game dissertation on his team's worthiness after losing to Iowa State Thursday.
"We have five Quad 1 wins," Tang said. "We played six power conference teams in the non-conference. We didn't duck anybody. Only three of our losses are to non-NCAA tournament teams. We have nine wins in the number-one league in the country. I've said all along, nine wins in this league should get you in. We beat Kansas at full strength. We beat Baylor and we beat Iowa State."
With UC's Big 12 tournament victories, they are also at nine wins in conference.
NIT bracketology
ESPN doesn't have one of these but there is NITBracketology.com. They have the Bearcats as the top seed out of the Big 12 with UCF getting the second seed. Kansas State is also in the mix despite the protests of Coach Tang.
Ohio State is considered the Big Ten top seed and Butler would participate along with the possibility of Indiana State (should they not make the NCAA tournament). Among those considered are Xavier whose 63 NET rating is higher than some under consideration for the NCAA tournament. Memphis was the first school to say they would decline their NIT bid. Friday, and Ole Miss and Indiana followed suit.
Last season, UC hosted a first-round win vs. Virginia Tech, then had road games at Hofstra and Utah Valley University. They couldn't host beyond one game due to pre-scheduled floor resurfacing that needed to be finished by spring commencement. It's not believed any issues would prevent more than one NIT game this season (should UC take a bid and advance). The Bearcats would host at least one game as the Big 12 top seed.
Declining an NIT bid
Memphis, Ole Miss and Indiana did so and you may see more. The logic is to get a head start in the meat market known as the transfer portal. The other reason could be players "opting out" to pursue portal opportunities. In the current college athletic system, where non-College Football Playoff bowl games have been watered down due to court-approved free agency, you could see more of this until a better solution is found.
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Possible March basketball plans for Cincinnati Bearcats basketball
