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Where do Chris Grier, Mike McDaniel, Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins rank compared to NFL's final four?

joe schad, palm beach post
·4 min read
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MIAMI GARDENS — The Dolphins’ general manager, Chris Grier, was saying at the end of this season that he feels good about what’s being built.

There are some numbers to back that up.

Grier was saying the Dolphins are excited about the core nucleus of players they’ve drafted, signed and traded for.

“We will be competitive,” Grier said.

Competitive for… the AFC East, the AFC, a Super Bowl win?

We get it. We get it.

Literally no NFL team has gone as long without a playoff win as the Dolphins. A quarter century, coach Mike McDaniel is not shy to remind.

Pain.

But we’re here to offer some positive thoughts, and research, headed into yet another NFL Championship weekend that excludes the Dolphins.

Year after year, a comparison of the numbers headed into this weekend has provided the sobering reality that Miami was far away from competing for it all. They often lagged dramatically in one or two key areas.

But not this time.

You can say statistics are for losers, and perhaps so. But it’s also true that the teams advancing this far have traditionally been at or near the top of most key categories.

Why might the Dolphins not be that far off? Well, let’s look at some Miami numbers from 2023, in comparison with the four teams still standing:

Dolphins offense vs. Super Bowl contenders

  • In offensive yards per play, the 49ers, Lions and Ravens ranked first, third and fourth in the NFL. The Dolphins ranked second.

  • In passing yards per play, the 49ers, Ravens and Lions ranked first, third and fourth. The Dolphins ranked second.

  • In rushing yards per play, the Ravens, 49ers and Lions ranked third, fourth and fifth. The Dolphins ranked first.

Lessons learned: The Dolphins ranked among the best offenses in the NFL in 2023, led by McDaniel, Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill. They passed it. They ran it. They were also good on third down and in the red zone. Is Miami’s performance against the strongest opponents, on the road and in the cold a concern? Yes. But Miami’s offense was elite. Tweaks are needed here, not overhaul in scheme, talent or philosophy. Obviously, San Francisco runs a similar scheme. Also obvious: Tagovailoa does not run or extend plays like Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes.

Baltimore Ravens head coach John Harbaugh, left, shakes hands with Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel, right, after an NFL football game in Baltimore, Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
Baltimore Ravens head coach John Harbaugh, left, shakes hands with Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel, right, after an NFL football game in Baltimore, Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

Dolphins defense vs. Super Bowl contenders

  • In defensive yards per play, the Ravens, Chiefs and 49ers rank third, fifth and seventh. The Dolphins ranked 10th.

  • In passing yards per play allowed, the Ravens, Chiefs and 49ers ranked first, third and fifth. The Dolphins ranked 18th.

  • In rushing yards per play allowed, the Lions, 49ers and Chiefs ranked second, 14th and 24th. The Dolphins ranked sixth.

Lessons Learned: The Dolphins were so strong against the run, largely because of the combination of Zach Sieler and Christian Wilkins, the latter a possible free agent departure. The best teams remaining seemed to focus their efforts more on slowing opposing passing attacks. Miami was better once Jalen Ramsey was activated. But the club may need to replace starters Xavien Howard and DeShon Elliott. And Kader Kohou’s pass defense metrics were not as good in his second season. Miami yielded 27 passing touchdowns in 2023, tied for seventh-most in the league. Vic Fangio's successor must figure out why.

But what about

Digging a bit deeper, here are some areas in which it seems the Dolphins are going to have to improve:

  • Third down and red zone defense. Miami ranked only 28th and 20th in the NFL in these categories. The Ravens, for example, are dominant in these two categories.

  • Special teams. Miami ranked 31st according to expert Rick Gosselin. The Chiefs, Ravens and Lions ranked 14th, 16th and 20th. Perhaps Miami does not need dominant special teams, but it allowed a few heartbreaking, momentum-changing returns.

  • Third-and-1. This is kind of hard to believe, but the Dolphins were 32nd in the NFL on third-and-1, converting a first down only 44% (10 of 23) of the time. By comparison, the 49ers were first, converting 86% (24 of 28).

Dolphins special teams coordinator Danny Crossman.
Dolphins special teams coordinator Danny Crossman.

Conclusion

The Dolphins have turned a corner as an organization since the middle of 2021. In fact, since Nov. 1, 2021, Miami ranks sixth in the NFL with 28 regular-season wins. And only the Chiefs and Bills have more regular-season wins among AFC teams. On Sunday, the Chiefs will play in their sixth straight AFC championship game. In Buffalo, management, players and fans are frustrated that Josh Allen is 5-5 as a postseason starter, but with no Super Bowl appearance. For Miami, tweaks will be needed. It's not easy to go from good to great. It's not easy to get over the hump. But that's the assignment for Grier and McDaniel — starting now.

Joe Schad is a journalist covering the Miami Dolphins and the NFL at The Palm Beach Post. You can reach him at jschad@pbpost.com and follow him on Instagram and Twitter @schadjoe. Sign up for Joe's free weekly Dolphins Pulse Newsletter. Help support our work by subscribing today.

This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: What do Mike McDaniel, Chris Grier, Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill need to take the next step?