Week 7 Expected Points: Josh Downs Thriving in the Mania

Earlier this week, I published my Week 6 Snap Report, highlighting some running backs who saw encouraging snap shares in their season-openers. This expected points column will work somewhat in conjunction with my weekly snap reports.

For those unfamiliar, expected points apply point values to players’ opportunities based on a number of factors such as down, distance, and where they were on the field when they received said opportunities. Players can then score above or below their expected points based on what they do with their opportunities — which we know as fantasy points over expected.

In hopes of pinpointing some deeper plays to make on a week-to-week basis, I’ll utilize what we’ve seen in expected points to highlight some players who could be slept on heading into upcoming weeks.

Under each position, I will also provide tables of expected fantasy points from the previous week, sorted by the most to the fewest expected fantasy points.

NOTE: Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, ProFootballReference.com, NextGenStats.NFL.com, 4For4.com, FantasyPoints.com and RBSDM.com. All scoring is based on full-PPR leagues.

Running Backs

Week 6 Expected Points

Zack Moss (IND, 14.0 Expected Points)

It's only natural that Jonathan Taylor would eventually come for Zack Moss, but it's possible that Moss tapped into some additional upside in the Colts' Week 6 loss to the Jaguars.

Moss out-snapped Taylor 39-33 in last week's contest, while each back saw 14 opportunities a piece. Taylor held the edge in expected fantasy points (15.7), but that's to be expected from the RB1 fresh off a three-year, $42 million extension. Here's a full look at their Week 6 splits.

All things considered, I'm very encouraged by Moss's seven targets. Admittedly, the 13 targets between Taylor and Moss came in a 37-20 loss, where the Colts trailed on 63 of their 78 offensive plays. Still, the Colts could face plenty of negative game scripts throughout the season, especially with Anthony Richardson (shoulder) now out for the year.

Gardner Minshew made his second start of the season on Sunday but has been the most active backup in the league. He played three quarters of football in Week 2 and nearly the entire second half in Week 5 when Richardson left early with injuries.

In those four weeks, Colts running backs have been targeted 6.5 times per game, tying the seventh-most targeted team on a per-game basis (New York Jets) this season. Taylor will almost certainly see his share of receptions, but fantasy managers shouldn't sleep on the receiving profile Moss boasted during his college days at Utah.

Per PlayerProfiler.com, Moss's 9.7 percent college target share ranks in the 76th percentile of college running backs — a near-elite level. In four seasons at Utah, Moss caught 66 passes for 685 yards and three touchdowns while averaging a solid 10.4 yards per reception.

During Minshew's 2019 rookie season with the Jaguars, running backs saw an average of 7.6 targets per game in his starts. They averaged 7.2 targets per game in his nine starts in 2020.

Moss will be at risk of losing touches as long as Taylor is healthy. However, what we saw in the Colts' Week 6 loss could be a sign of things to come for Moss, whose receiving upside could help him co-exist with Taylor enough to keep him fantasy relevant as a fringe RB2/RB3.

Jordan Mason (SF, 3.3 Expected Points)

49ers running back Jordan Mason isn't listed on the above chart, as his 3.3 expected fantasy points ranked 52nd of 82 running backs last week. Mason's 5.4 FPOE was good for sixth most on the week, as he turned five rush attempts into 27 yards and a touchdown after Christian McCaffrey exited with an oblique injury.

I'm not mentioning Mason because of his performance in Week 6, but rather because of what he could provide in Week 7 if McCaffrey were to be held out of Monday night's matchup against the Vikings.

You don't have to spend much time in the fantasy streets to know McCaffrey is elite. Through six games, he's the RB2 in fantasy points per game (25.0) and expected fantasy points (113.7), and his 137 opportunities rank second only to Josh Jacobs.

If McCaffrey can't go on Monday, the 49ers will split their backfield touches between Mason and Elijah Mitchell. My money would be on Mason to lead the way after he did so on Sunday, but if he does, he'll see a fraction of the 67.6 opportunity share McCaffrey has enjoyed this season. Despite knowing this, Mason (or whoever the 49ers' lead back is on Monday) could be in for a strong fantasy outing against one of the league's worst defenses.

What's nice about expected points is it's a metric based on things like down and distance, where a team is on the field, and the perceived value of a touch from a fantasy perspective. A goal-line carry comes with more expected points than one from the offense's own 20-yard line. A reception has more expected points than a rush attempt, and so on.

Because of this, we can get at least some sense of a running back's potential when we know he's replacing a lead back. Even if Mason doesn't perform at the same level as CMC, the volume we hope he receives paints an optimistic picture.

McCaffrey's 113.7 expected fantasy points is an incredibly high total. As are his 127 touches. A 60 percent split of what he's received on the season would still be good for 68.2 expected fantasy points (RB20) and 82.2 touches (t-24th amongst RBs). On a per-game basis, we are looking at 11.4 expected fantasy points and 13.7 touches — both reasonable but encouraging totals for a running back in the 49ers' offense.

We'll know more about McCaffrey's fantasy status over the weekend, but if he's held out with enough notice, fantasy managers should be itching to fire up Mason as a high-upside RB2. The Vikings' defense has allowed 16.2 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs over the last five weeks and was torched by D'Andrew Swift for 28-175-1 in Week 2.

Looking for more fantasy football content? Rotoworld has you covered. Watch Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry weekdays at noon ET LIVE on Peacock and the Rotoworld Football Show on Mondays, Tuesdays and Thursdays wherever you get your podcasts.

Wide Receivers

Week 6 Expected Points

Adam Thielen (CAR, 21.1 Expected Points)

If you had Adam Thielen enjoying a career revival on your 2023 fantasy football Bingo card, consider yourself one of the few. At 33 years old, most people in the fantasy community (myself included) were ready to write Thielen off after the Vikings cut ties with him earlier this offseason.

Oops.

Averaging a mere 10.4 yards per reception on the season, Thielen isn't exactly torching opposing defenses. He has, however, looked spry after the catch, ranking 10th in total YAC (177) and 17th in YAC/REC per PFF. In total, Thielen has gone for 24 YAC or more in each of the last five weeks and has already surpassed his total (165) from last year.

Life is easy for receivers when they're doing the little things — like getting open. As Scott Barrett from FantasyPoints.com pointed out earlier this week, Thielen is getting open at a high rate. His 30 targets when open are second only to Ja'Marr Chase (33), with open targets making up 50.8 percent of his overall looks.

Credit to Thielen for bucking any negative expectations placed on him at the start of the season. He's currently the WR6 in fantasy points per game (21.1) and is the WR8 in expected fantasy points, ahead of guys like Justin Jefferson, Garrett Wilson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Chris Olave — to name a few.

Our eyes don't want to believe the numbers we're seeing, and our brains certainly don't want to give in to the notion that a 33-year-old receiver could be turning in one of the best years of his career. But that's precisely what Thielen is doing, leaving us with little choice but to accept it.

Note: The Panthers are on a Week 7 bye but return in Week 8 to play the Texans.

Josh Downs (IND, 16.6 Expected Points)

Last week, I banged the drum for Michael Pittman in a matchup against the Jaguars. The Colts WR1 had proven to be a target funnel in four separate weeks that predominantly featured Gardner Minshew, and he rewarded my faith in Week 6 with a 109-yard performance while catching 9-of-13.

At the end of that article, I was also quick to mention that Josh Downs was in play as a high-upside WR3. Downs finished as the WR30 last week with 13.1 fantasy points, going for 5-21-1 on eight targets.

Today, I want to go entirely in on Downs as a rest-of-season play as long as Minshew is under center. I touted Downs earlier this season, but his situation has changed drastically in light of the Anthony Richardson news.

Through six games this season, Downs has caught 28 passes for 276 yards and one touchdown while playing 84.7 percent of his snaps in the slot. Among rookie receivers over the last five seasons, Downs' 41 targets through six weeks tie for ninth-most with Ja'Marr Chase. The list of rookies with 40+ targets over that span is solid. Take a look for yourself.

Like Downs, two other receivers on this list are currently in their rookie year. But here is where the others stood by season's end.

Of the seven above receivers, five finished as top-36 receivers or better in fantasy points per game, while all seven were top-36 in total expected points. As far as Downs is concerned, we're only working with a six-game sample, but his current production puts him on pace for 198.9 EP and 175.1 fantasy points. From a raw receiving total, Downs is staring down a 17-game line of 79-782-3 on 116 targets.

Downs has seen double-digit expected points in 3-of-6 games this season. His two highest totals of 18.7 and 16.5 came in Weeks 3 and 6 — Minshew's only two starts of the season. It should come as no surprise that the two games where Downs was most heavily targeted also came in those weeks. His 20 targets are only five behind what Pittman received in Minshew's two starts.

Downs is fast approaching a potential top-36 fantasy status the rest of the way if the targets we've seen in Minshew's two starts are sustained. It's worth noting that, unlike the above receivers, Downs isn't perceived as a true No. 1, although that may not matter if Minshew continues to lean on him this season. While we'd like to see more than the 21 yards he provided in Week 6, his work in the short and intermediate parts of the field makes him an excellent outlet for Minshew when plays don't open up downfield.

Per the FantasyPoints.com Data Suite, Downs was Minshew's first read on 23.9 percent of his targets in his two starts. For some perspective, among receivers with 40 or more targets this season, Chicago's D.J. Moore has been the first read on 23.3 percent of his targets, while CeeDee Lamb has been the first read on 21.5 percent of his looks.

Downs and the Colts draw a stout Browns defense in Week 7. Those mulling over some tough WR3/Flex decisions should start him with confidence, given his brief string of success with Minshew.

Tight Ends

Week 6 Expected Points

Luke Musgrave (GB, Week 6 Bye)

Luke Musgrave didn't play in Week 6, as he and the Packers were on a bye. However, now rested and ready to get back to it, Musgrave and the Pack take on a Broncos defense that's been dismal in nearly every sense of the word.

Throughout six weeks, the Broncos defense has:

• Allowed the most points per game (33.3)

• Allowed the third-most passing yards per game (268.0)

• Allowed the most rushing yards per game (172.3)

• Allowed the most points per drive (2.97)

If you're desperate for a high-upside fantasy streamer, look no further than the Broncos' defense to stream said player against. Over the last five weeks, the Packers have allowed the most fantasy points per game (19.5) to opposing tight ends and the fifth most targets per game (8.6).

While Musgrave has been difficult to trust throughout his rookie campaign (18-159-0 on 23 targets), his fortunes will have a chance to flip against the down-bad Broncos.

Despite his underwhelming stat line this season, Musgrave hasn't gone completely overlooked in the Packers' offense. He's seen seven or more targets in two of his first five games and three or more targets in all but one week. Jordan Love has let it rip at various times as well, targeting Musgrave on shots 20-plus yards downfield on three separate occasions, tied with seven tight ends for the third most deep targets at the position.

Musgrave has yet to find the end zone this year but is in a prime position to break that scoreless streak and much more this weekend against the Broncos.

Michael Mayer (LV, 10.5 Expected Points)

We can only hope the days of Austin Hooper are fully behind us. Earlier this offseason, the veteran tight end went to the only state where it's legal to start him on an NFL roster and had a 58 percent snap share through the first four weeks of the season.

Then, in Week 5, something changed.

Rookie tight end Michael Mayer emerged to out-snap Hooper 42-36 in the Raiders' win over the Packers. In Week 6, Mayer would take an even greater share of the snaps, out-snapping Hooper 52-24 while catching 5-of-6 targets for 75 scoreless yards. The five catches Mayer managed in Week 6 were more than he caught through the first four weeks combined.

Mayer still faces some uphill battles — which may not be won this year. Most notable is the fact he's been the first read on just 12.5 percent of his targets over the last two weeks, with Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers drastically out-pacing him. They also hold the edge in targets during Mayer's two-week-long mini-outburst.

With Jimmy Garoppolo (neck) already ruled out for Week 7, Mayer will be hard to trust. The Raiders have yet to name a starter, but it will be up to Brian Hoyer and rookie Aidan O'Connell to earn the job in practice. Neither inspires much confidence as far as real or fantasy football goes. But if you're looking for one reason to hang your hat on Mayer despite his quarterback situation, consider the Bears have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends (15.4) over the last five weeks.