Week 5 DFS DraftKings Milly Maker Breakdown

The dynamic game of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) requires much more than simply knowing the sport for which we’re entering contests to be successful. We must be adaptable, precise, and open to learning from previous endeavors, the latter of which will be the primary focus of this weekly written piece. Game Theoretic methodologies will allow us to analyze and dissect the previous week’s winner of the largest and most prestigious Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournament on DraftKings – the Millionaire Maker. These same tenets of Game Theory, which can most simply be explained as the development of decision-making processes given our own skill and knowledge, assumptions of the field based on the cumulative skill and knowledge of others playing the same game, and the rules and structure of the game itself, will allow us to further train our minds to see beyond the antiquated techniques of roster building being employed by a large portion of the field. Approaching improvement through these methods will give us insight into the anatomy of successful rosters and will help us develop repeatably profitable habit patterns for the coming weeks. We’ll start by looking at the previous week’s winning roster, extract any pertinent lessons for future utilization, and finish with a look ahead towards the coming main slate.

Winning Roster

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Lessons Learned

Chalk at Running Back

We’ve seen running back chalk hit at an elevated rate to start the 2023 season, begging the question of whether that is simply positional variance or if it is a trend in the current state of NFL DFS. In my opinion, there are only two ways to look at the recent hit rate of chalk at the position. We’ll explore both sides of the discussion and leave it open to interpretation, left for the reader to decide.

On one hand, we know through the historical data we have on the Milly Maker contest that chalk hit rate is going to ebb and flow and be susceptible to variance, meaning micro snapshots in time should be considered with a grain of salt. On the other hand, projections systems are continuously being back tested for reliability and accuracy. To understand how that happens we must first look at what projections systems are doing and how they are improved.

Projections algorithms utilize things like historical data, team tendencies, expected game environment (pace, number of plays, etc), and Vegas game lines to generate a median projection, which is the value shown to the user. By definition, a median projection implies that 50 percent of the time the end value (actual fantasy output) falls below the projection and 50 percent of the time the end value lands above the projection. This process fine tunes these algorithms after a meaningful sample size can be analyzed.

In fewer words, we might be approaching the moment in time where projections systems have enough of a sample size to approach equilibrium for the most projectable position in fantasy football – running backs.

That’s an interesting theoretical and analytical discussion to have because of what it would mean regarding optimal practices when constructing rosters, effectively minimizing the ability to generate meaningful leverage on a consistent basis at the running back position.

Now, I don’t know where in that discussion we are without getting a peak behind the curtain at the historical hit rates of these projections algorithms which I am highly unlikely to gain access to, leaving this discussion firmly in the theoretical realm. But it’s an interesting thought experiment to have, nonetheless.

Minimal Game Environment Correlation

DraftKings user buckeye151 correlated his primary pass-catcher with his quarterback, a running back with a defense, and another running back with an opposing pass-catcher but didn’t include much else in the way of commonly accepted optimal practices in their roster construction for the winning roster. Another discussion that lives in the theoretical realm is worth having here. We know scoring is down across the league as teams averaged 3.8 touchdowns per game in 2020 before gradually dropping to 3.43 in 2023. Teams are averaging 3.39 touchdowns per game through five weeks of the 2023 season.

So that now begs the question – do these “standard DFS practices” gain less meaning with teams scoring less? The lower scoring throughout the league should theoretically lead to two conclusions for optimal DFS play moving forward. Correlating less and over-stacking should boost expected value if the standard tendency to force a correlated bring-back to primary stacks is being over-utilized by the field.

The reasoning goes as follows – a team that outscores every other team on a given slate would theoretically make the players on that team more valuable, even to the point of three to four players entering the optimal discussion without a member of their opponent needed. We saw this transpire in Week 3 with the Miami Dolphins, where Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Raheem Mostert, and De’Von Achane were all either optimal or circling the optimal discussion on the slate in question.

The other side of that equation involves correlating less due to the decreased game totals and Vegas implied team totals found with a down-scoring year. I’ve discussed the causal factors to this dip in scoring in other places this season, so I won’t go into it in depth here, but the primary reason for a decrease in scoring around the NFL is a league-wide shift to two-high defensive alignments. Those looks give the quarterback a static snapshot pre-snap and are built to reduce splash plays against, effectively disrupting drives through sacks and turnovers and simultaneously forcing teams to take a more “march the field” approach on offense, the latter of which eats up time and reduces the average plays per game.

This would theoretically render most game environment bets obsolete, which is exactly what we’re trying to capture with correlation on our rosters. Thus, the focus should shift to a higher emphasis on teams that can outperform expectations and away from game environment bets.

Looking Ahead

Minnesota Vikings / Chicago Bears

Week 6 pits the 1-4 Vikings against the 1-4 Bears for a battle to avoid last place in the NFC North. What is particularly interesting with the Vikings side of this game is the removal of Justin Jefferson from the offense, who was placed on injured reserve on Tuesday. That should elevate rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison into a near every-down role alongside perennial JAG K.J. Osborn and provide a slight uptick in expectation for tight end T.J. Hockenson. The state of the running back room leaves a lot to be desired with Cam Akers taking on a larger role in the offense in Week 5 after he was acquired before the team’s Week 3 game, leaving a large portion of the offense to flow through Addison, Osborn, and Hockenson. The kicker here is that this team profile comes against one of the worst defenses in the league. Matchup – check. Talent – check (for the most part). Opportunity – check. This could be one of the rare spots this season where we can confidently over-stack a concentrated offense in a good matchup at low combined salary.

Finally, nods to this game environment erupting can also be played on this slate with the heavily concentrated Bears on the other side. Chicago is likely to be without their top three running backs after Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson, and Travis Homer all departed the team’s Week 5 win with injury, leaving only D’Onta Foreman and Darrynton Evans as healthy backs on the roster. When you take that on the backdrop of an offense that is clearly already trying to develop quarterback Justin Fields into a pocket passer with mobility (as opposed to a mobile quarterback that can throw every now and then), it makes sense for this team to continue to emphasize a pass offense that filters most of its volume through DJ Moore and Cole Kmet.

Raheem Mostert / Nico Collins

These two players are examples of guys that are such large parts of their respective offenses that they can return elite GPP scores on their own without either another member of their team or a member of the opposition this week. Collins is in the midst of a true breakout season by all analytical metrics, ranking near the top of the league in yards per route run against both man and zone coverages.

The Texans are likely to be without standout rookie wide receiver Tank Dell after he suffered a concussion in the team’s Week 5 game (only Packers tight end Luke Musgrave has played the game following a placement in the league’s concussion protocol this season, and that was likely due to the concussion occurring on Thursday Night Football and his next game occurring on Monday Night Football the following week), leaving Collins with a massive expectation of volume against the Saints.

As for the Dolphins backfield, electric rookie running back De’Von Achane suffered a knee injury in Week 5 that is likely to hold him out of action for some time, with the potential to be placed on injured reserve still on the table. That leaves Raheem Mostert, Salvon Ahmed, Chris Brooks, and potentially Jeff Wilson (should he be activated from injured reserve) as the healthy backs on the roster. The matchup is pristine against the run-funnel Carolina defense and we should expect Mostert to garner the lion’s share of the backfield work in the absence of Achane, even if Wilson makes his way back to the active roster (considering a lengthy five-week stay on injured reserve).