Week 3 Expected Points: Brian Robinson the Bell Cow

Earlier this week, I published my Week 2 Snap Report, highlighting some running backs who saw encouraging snap shares in their season-openers. This expected points column will work somewhat in conjunction with my weekly snap reports.

For those unfamiliar, expected points apply point values to players' opportunities based on a number of factors such as down, distance, and where they were on the field when they received said opportunities. Players can then score above or below their expected points based on what they do with their opportunities — which we know as fantasy points over expected.

In hopes of pinpointing some deeper plays to make on a week-to-week basis, I'll utilize what we've seen in expected points to highlight some players who could be slept on heading into upcoming weeks.

Under each position, I will also provide tables of expected fantasy points from the previous week, sorted by the most to the fewest expected fantasy points.

NOTE: Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, ProFootballReference.com, NextGenStats.NFL.com, 4For4.com, FantasyPoints.com and RBSDM.com. All scoring is based on full-PPR leagues.

Running Backs

Week 2 Expected Points

Brian Robinson (WSH, 16.7 Expected Points)

I've seen enough over the first two weeks to conclude that Brian Robinson is nearing bell cow status.

Robinson has seen 42 opportunities through two games to Antonio Gibson's nine and has been in on 57 percent of Washington's snaps. Robinson was relied on heavily in the second half in the Commanders' Week 2 win over the Broncos. He saw 14 of his 21 opportunities come in the final two quarters after Washington spent much of the first half in catch-up mode and found the end zone twice in the fourth quarter to put the game out of reach.

It should come as no surprise at this point, but Robinson also handled all but three of the team's snaps inside the red zone and handled 100 percent of the red zone opportunities.

I'm not entirely sold on Robinson as an efficient back, but he was excellent in Week 2 with a YCO/ATT of 3.67 and turned two screen passes into 42 receiving yards. He's currently the RB4 in fantasy points over expected (11.2) but faces his toughest test of the young season when the Commanders play host to the Bills.

Still, the opportunity is undeniable. I'm all in on Robinson as a high-end RB2 who could be fueled by volume alone.

Jahmyr Gibbs (DET, 16.5 Expected Points)

The Lions are expected to be without David Montgomery (thigh) for Sunday's contest against the Falcons. This presumably spells a bigger role for Jahmyr Gibbs, whose 22.8 expected points on the season ranks 25th among running backs. He saw a significant increase in expected points last week, partly because Montgomery exited late in the third quarter but also because the two targets he saw in Week 1 jumped to nine targets in Week 2.

Four of Gibbs' targets did come in the fourth quarter when the Lions were trying to come back from a two-touchdown deficit, but Gibbs could be in line for significant work with Montgomery on the sidelines this week.

The threat of Craig Reynolds looms over Gibbs, as Reynolds did manage to see four opportunities to Gibbs' five after Montgomery's injury, but I'm counting on the Lions to do the right thing here. Gibbs is the more explosive back, an elite prospect in the passing game, and was selected by the Lions with the No. 12 overall pick in this year's draft. You may also remember the Lions brass going absolutely nuts when they handed in their pick to select Gibbs.

Teams simply aren't allowed to take running backs in the first round of a draft only to play them in a 50-50 share with a 27-year-old former UDFA. It's unconstitutional.

Zack Moss (IND, 13.7 Expected Points)

As far as snaps are concerned, only Christian McCaffrey saw a higher percentage of his team's snaps (100 percent) than Zack Moss. Moss played on 98.2 percent of the Colts' snaps but was the only running back to see the field for Indy in their Week 2 win over Houston.

His opportunities reflected his high-volume snaps, as the offense looked his way 22 times on the day, which resulted in an 18-88-1 line on the ground and a four-catch, 19-yard day through the air. His 13.7 expected points ranked 18th on the week, while his 20.7 fantasy points were good for an RB10 finish. Moss turned one of his two red zone touches into an 11-yard score on the ground, averaged 2.83 YCO/ATT, and forced the second-most missed tackles on the week with seven.

Moss will have his work cut out for him in Week 3 when the Colts travel to Baltimore. Through two games, the Ravens have allowed 14.6 points per game to opposing running backs and rank in EPA per rush (-0.215). Jonathan Taylor is out at least two more weeks, and rookie Evan Hull is on injured reserve. The only back who could realistically threaten Moss for touches is Deon Jackson, who underwhelmed to the tune of 28 yards from scrimmage on 18 touches in Week 1.

The opportunities and snap share we saw from Moss were no fluke.

Raheem Mostert (MIA, 11.3 Expected Points)

The backfield situation in Miami has shaped up nicely for Raheem Mostert early on. Rookie De'Von Achane missed part of training camp and was a healthy scratch in Week 1, and Jeff Wilson (core/finger) was placed on injured reserve shortly before the start of the season.

Achane was active for the Dolphins in Week 2 against the Patriots, but Mostert handled 19-of-26 running back opportunities while being in on 73 percent of the snaps.

Mostert found the end zone twice in the Dolphins' win, with one of his scores coming on a 43-yard run where he ran nearly uncontested to the end zone. One of the older starting running backs in the league, Mostert, does not yet appear to be slowed by father time. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Mostert has been the second-fastest ball carrier in the league, hitting 21.62 MPH on his touchdown run. His run trails only Tyreek Hill, who was clocked at 21.66 MPH in Week 1.

Among running backs with at least 20 rush attempts, Mostert ranks 12th in missed tackles forced rate (21.4 percent) and is eighth in YCO/ATT at 3.29. He's been targeted just three times this season but has caught all three targets for 19 yards. In total, Mostert has handled 68.9 percent of Miami's backfield touches and is 30th amongst running backs in expected points. He is also the only running back on the team to see looks in the red zone.

Salvon Ahmed, who is second on the Dolphins in running back opportunities (12), has missed the first two days of practice at the time this is being written. If he misses Week 3, Mostert could see an increase in opportunities against a Broncos team that was run over by Brian Robinson last week.

Wide Receivers

Week 2 Expected Points

George Pickens (PIT, 14.4 Expected Points)

Everything went as we hoped for Pickens in his first game without Diontae Johnson. The second-year receiver was targeted on an insane 33.3 percent of the Steelers' pass attempts and finished the day with four receptions for 127 yards and one touchdown. Admittedly, four receptions on 10 targets leaves a lot to be desired, but it's still plenty to work with.

Pickens' 10 targets in Week 2 set a new career-high for him, as did his 127 yards. He bailed himself out of an underwhelming day when he took a three-yard pass for 68 additional yards on his way to a 71-yard touchdown in the second quarter, but I'm all in on his target volume.

Calvin Austin and Allen Robinson combined for seven targets on the afternoon while running back Jaylen Warren was second on the team with six targets. Weirdly, Pat Freiermuth managed just one look on the evening.

The Raiders have allowed the 10th and 16th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers through two weeks. Pickens should once again serve as the Steelers' WR1 this week and would be a fringe WR2 if he sniffs another 10 targets as he did on Monday night.

Tank Dell (HOU, 15.3 Expected Points)

Tank Dell emerging in Week 2 to lead the Texans in expected points was not on my 2023 Football Bingo card. The rookie receiver narrowly edged out WR1 Nico Collins (15.0 EP) in the expected points column, but Collins' highly efficient day (7-146-1) led the way in actual fantasy points.

Still, Dell's overall volume (7-72-1, 10 targets) was exciting in his second game of NFL action.

At 5-foot-8, 165 pounds, Dell's small stature had many (including myself) convinced he would thrive primarily as a slot receiver at the NFL level. While that could still be true, that's how the Texans have deployed him this far.

Through two weeks, Dell has played 71.1 percent of his snaps out wide and has seen all but three of his targets come on the outside per PFF.

Speaking of PFF, credit to offensive coordinator "PFF Bobby" (Bobby Slowik, whose nickname was popularized by Denny Carter) for how he's run the Texans' offense through two weeks.

The Texans are 0-2 and don't figure to win many games in 2023. Slowik pointed out earlier this week that their running game has also been a disaster. The Texans' pass heaviness (63 percent neutral pass rate) reflects the team's slow start on the ground, which is something more coaches should consider when their running backs can't move the ball.

The Texans currently sit as 9.5-point road underdogs for their Week 3 matchup against the Jaguars. The game once again sets up as another high-volume passing day for C.J. Stroud, who has attempted 91 passes through the first two games.

Compound these two factors with Dell's recent usage, and there's a real chance for Dell to hit far earlier than expected and turn into a solid WR3/FLEX in PPR leagues going forward.

Tutu Atwell (LAR, 14.8 Expected Points)

It's easy to get lost in the excitement of what Puka Nacua has done in his first two weeks as a pro, but third-year pro, Tutu Atwell, is also enjoying an early breakout.

Through two games, Atwell has caught 13 passes for 196 yards on 17 targets, earning eight and nine targets in those games while playing 57.3 three percent of his snaps on the outside. Atwell has seen 12 of his 17 targets come from 10 or more yards downfield and has yet to drop a pass in any area of the field.

Atwell and Nacua have combined to absorb 58.8 of the Rams' 85 pass attempts on the season, and the Rams are throwing at a 58 percent rate in neutral game scripts.

We've got at least two more weeks of Atwell and Nacua leading the way, which could prove profitable for fantasy managers. We're still awaiting word on whether or not Joe Burrow will be active in Week 3 when the Rams take on the Bengals, but if Burrow does give it a go, Atwell could be a fun play in a game that has a chance to develop into a high-scoring affair.

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Tight Ends

Week 2 Expected Fantasy Points

Hunter Henry (NE, 13.8 Expected Points)

I regrettably left Hunter Henry out of this article last week, but I can't overlook him this week. Henry was one of my favorite Week 2 plays after his 16.6 fantasy points in Week 1, and overall usage signaled potentially good things.

I fired up Henry in a few spots last week, and the returns were exactly what I hoped for.

Henry closed out Week 2 with a receiving line of 6-52-1 on seven targets and had a 60.9 percent slot rate. Through two games, Henry has played 62.6 percent of his snaps from the slot, ranking third behind Mark Andrews and teammate Mike Gesicki (84.6 percent), but has four more targets than Gesicki on the season. Henry has also played on 26 more snaps than Gesicki.

Henry tied for the fourth-most routes run in Week 2 (36) and ran a route on 83.7 percent of his snaps on passing downs.

Just as we saw in Week 1, the Patriots were once again aggressive through the air, throwing on 76 percent of their plays in neutral game script while ranking third in seconds per snap. Credit to Bill O'Brien for trying to usher in some semblance of modern-day football to the Patriots in 2023.

Through two weeks, Henry ranks fifth amongst all tight ends in expected points (27.0) and is second in fantasy points over expected. Until I see otherwise, he is officially on my weekly low-end TE1 streaming radar if I don't have the luxury of rolling with one of the elite options.

Dalton Kincaid (BUF, 10.1 Expected Points)

We still have Friday's practice to get through, but Dawson Knox, who had 12.2 expected points in last week's win over the Raiders, has yet to practice this week with a back injury.

Rookie Dalton Kincaid has caught 9-of-10 targets for 69 yards and has played 55.6 percent of his snaps from the slot. He's been used similarly to Knox, who has a receiving line of 6-35-1 on nine targets but could be in line for his best day yet if Knox were to miss Week 3 against the Commanders.

Passing at a 65 percent rate in neutral game scripts, the Bills are once again one of the highest-volume passing teams in the league. Their 19 tight end targets are good for fourth-most in the league, and Kincaid's 96.8 percent route participation ranks second behind only Evan Engram.

Kincaid is already on the radar as a desperation streaming option but could creep into top-12 territory if Knox sits. This is one for fantasy managers to watch heading into the weekend, but Kincaid could very well be the No. 2 receiving option in Buffalo's passing game this week.