Week 18 Fantasy Football Defense (DST) Rankings and Streamers
It's Week 18 of the NFL season, which means many people are done with the 2023 fantasy football season. However, since some leagues continue through Week 18, we're going to power through here as well. After nailing 7 of the top 10 defenses last week, we're going to try and finish the season on a high note, but there are some key differences you need to keep in mind if you're playing Week 18.
We can be direct about it, so here are my Keys to Playing Week 18 Fantasy Football
#1 PAY ATTENTION TO MOTIVATION: Obviously, not every team has something to play for in Week 18, which is why most fantasy leagues end before. You'll want to keep an eye on which teams have something to play for and which have playoff byes or seeding locked up and could rest their starters. Teams aren't always open about resting their starters for all or some of the games, so we need to read between the lines or play it safe in situations where it seems likely.
#2 BEING ELIMINATED DOESN'T MEAN NO MOTIVATION: You may think that a team being eliminated from the playoffs means they also have no motivation, but that's not always true. I'd much rather fade the defense of a team with playoffs locked up than a team that's eliminated. Some eliminated teams love to play spoilers or can play to keep their jobs or their coaches' jobs, like in Las Vegas. Make sure to treat the two separately.
#3 PAY ATTENTION TO INCENTIVES: It's easy to assume that players who aren't playing in meaningful Week 18 games are not going to play with the same motivation, but that's not always true either. Some players have crucial contract incentives to reach in Week 18 that will allow them to make meaningful amounts of money. For example, DeAndre Hopkins is not playing in a truly meaningful game for the Titans, but he can earn $1 million if he gets over 49 yards receiving and another $250K if he gets seven catches, so he'll clearly want to be on the field and producing.
The AFC East is on the line as the Dolphins host the Bills to wrap up the NFL regular season, Sunday at 7 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock! Click here to watch
BOD Formula and Philosophy
Just a quick reminder of the BOD formula:
(Pressure Rate) + (Knockdowns) + (%Drives ending in a Turnover x2)
Minus
(% Drives ending in a Score) + (Explosive Plays Allowed Per Game x2)
It's important to clarify that the BOD rankings ARE NOT to be treated as weekly rankings. BOD is meant to tell us who the best fantasy defenses are, but depending on the matchup, they might be ranked differently in a given week. That's why we have this column where I will be breaking down my rankings for each week and an explanation of why I have the defenses ranked the way I do. The rankings will take into account their BOD ranking, opponent, injuries, weather, etc., but I hope my explanation will help make sense of each ranking.
Special shoutout to Arjun Menon, who calculates the explosive plays per game formula. You can check him out on Twitter here.
Season-Long Accuracy
Throughout the season I'll keep track of how many top 10 defenses we correctly predicted. I know it's not quite marking down if I nailed the number one defense each week or the number two, but it's the most logical way I can think of to keep track of how often a defense I predicted would be a good play actually wound up being a good play. I know we always want the top defense, but I think, more often than not, if we get one of the ten top performing defenses of the week, we're not mad at the result.
SEASON RECORD FOR TOP 10 PREDICTIONS: 87-of-170 (51.2%)
So how do things stack up for Week 18?
As I mentioned above, the key to Week 18 fantasy football is trying to determine who has anything meaningful to play for and then also factoring in matchup and the likely motivation of the opponent. The Jaguars need to win to clinch a division title, and the Titans have essentially nothing to play for other than pride, incentives, and development. Given that Will Levis has been hurt in consecutive games to end the season, it would make sense for the Titans to let Ryan Tannehill start on Sunday. While DeAndre Hopkins has incentives to play for, Derrick Henry is going to be a free agent at the end of the season and likely wants to make sure he heads into the offseason healthy, which could impact his performance this weekend. The Jaguars have scored 7.5 fantasy points per game over the last month, which is fine, but the Titans allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month, which we love to attack. The Jaguars are fifth in opponent’s scoring rate, 10th in pressure rate, and 11th in turnover rate, so they’re a fringe top 10 defense in a great matchup with a lot on the line. Doesn’t get much better than that in Week 18.
The Bucs are another team with a chance to win their division, so I expect them to come out aggressively in Week 18. They also get a tremendous matchup against a Panthers offense that looked anemic yet again against a Jaguars team that had been mediocre over the last month. The Panthers allow the third-most points to opposing defenses over the last month, and the Bucs have scored a solid 7.3 fantasy points per game over that same span. The Bucs defense hasn’t been great, but they’re sixth in turnover rate on the year, so I think they can take advantage of some poor Bryce Young play this weekend.
The Lions don’t have tons to play for in Week 18, but a win could give them the #2 seed instead of the #3 seed. That does mean another potential home game in the playoffs, so I think Detroit will be looking to capitalize on that, especially Dan Campbell said he has no plans to rest his starters. They face a Vikings team that has given up the fifth-most fantasy points per game over the last month as they rotate through quarterbacks. The Vikings do have something to play for here, so I expect most of their banged-up players to play, but this offense misses T.J. Hockenson and I’m not sure either Justin Jefferson or Jordan Addison are at 100%, so I still like this play.
My BOD formula wanted to rank the Chiefs are the number one defense this week, but since they have the third seed in the AFC locked up, there is no motivation for them to play any of their starters this week. Given how banged up they’ve been on defense and how much of their offensive success rests on the shoulders of Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them rest key players for all or half of the game, but this has also been a trying season for Kansas City, and I think they’ll want to end the season with a win. Even without that, the Chargers have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month. There is no real reason for the to play Keenan Allen and Josh Palmer, who were both banged up and missed last week. I just don’t think this Chargers offense has enough juice to do damage against this Chiefs defense, especially since Chiefs DT Chris Jones needs at least one sack to hit key incentives in his contract.
The Patriots and Jets have both been eliminated for weeks and have kept playing their key players, so there’s no reason to think that will change this weekend. Both defenses have also been solid of late with the Patriots averaging nine fantasy points per game over the last month and the Jets averaging 8.5 points. The Patriots defense looked solid against the Bills last week, and the Jets allow the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month, so I’d prefer playing the Patriots defense here, but we also saw Bailey Zappe throw three picks against the Bills last week, so I think the Jets remain a good play here.
The Raiders don’t technically have anything to play for, but they’re playing for Antonio Pierce’s job, so I think they’ll come out with as much motivation as many of the teams who have playoff aspirations. They certainly let us down in a good spot last week, but even with that poor performance, they average 14.8 fantasy points per game over the last month, so they’ve been a really strong defense. They’re also matched up against a Denver offense that will be without Courtland Sutton and looked mediocre with Jared Stidham under center. That makes the Raiders a strong play here.
The Texans and Colts are squaring off with a playoff spot on the line, so you know both teams will come out to play. With Will Anderson Jr. and Blake Cashman back for Houston, I think this defense is certainly the better overall unit. I know the Colts have been a good fantasy defense this year, but they rely a lot on defensive touchdowns, while the Texans have been better in crucial areas. The Texans are sixth in knockdowns, which is sacks plus QB hits, while the Colts are seventh. The Texans are fifth in pressure rate on the year, and the Colts are 21st. The Texans are 14th in opponent’s scoring rate, while the Colts are 25th. The Colts have been a better turnover defense, but C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins are now back, so I trust this Houston offense way more than the Gardner Minshew-led Colts offense.
Normally, I’d have both the Ravens and Browns ranked much higher, but neither of them have anything to play for. The Ravens have the top seed in the AFC locked up and the Browns have the fifth-seed locked up. Now, with the Ravens also having a bye locked up, I think they’re more likely to play their key players for longer in this game, rather than essentially giving them two weeks off, which could lead to some rust. I also don’t think they’d mind keeping Pittsburgh out of the playoffs. The Browns have battled injuries all season, so they have already stated that they’ll likely rest their starters; however, they’re also playing a Bengals team that has nothing to play for, so that could lead Cincinnati to rest guys like Ja’Marr Chase.
With the Browns resting starters, I think we can probably play the Bengals defense in most formats as well. Although, who can the Browns really rest on offense? Amari Cooper didn’t play last week, and they still torched the Jets. If the Browns decide to sit Flacco, which is possible, then I might move Cincinnati up a bit more.
Both the Saints and Falcons are playing for a playoff spot here, so there is clear motivation here. The Saints have been playing great defense of late, showing up in a big way against the Bucs last week. They’ve averaged 12.3 fantasy points per game over the last month. With Taylor Heinicke dealing with an ankle injury, there’s also a very real chance that we get Desmond Ridder under center on Sunday. The Falcons have not only been a worse offense with Ridder under center, but he takes more sacks on average and turns the ball over more often. That makes the Saints a more enticing play.
The Cowboys' matchup seems great on paper, but this defense has averaged just 4.5 fantasy points per game over the last month, so it’s hard to have confidence in them. Dallas has some motivation in terms of playoff seeding, so they will play their starters, but the Commanders have actually allowed just the 12th-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month with Jacoby Brissett under center more. Brissett missed last week with a hamstring injury, but he’s expected to play on Sunday. If we were to get Sam Howell under center, I’d move Dallas up a few spots.
The Steelers are only here because it’s possible that the Ravens will rest their starters. However, Baltimore also has a bye locked up, so they may not want their starters to have 2+ full weeks without game action. As a result, it’s possible the Ravens play their starters for the first half and then rest them. Is one half of Lamar Jackson and then a half of Tyler Huntley really something we want to attack with a defense that’s averaged just six fantasy points per game over the last month? I’m not excited by that.
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The Dolphins and Bills have played great defense all season, but with the AFC East on the line on Sunday night, we have to assume both offenses are going to come out swinging. Both defenses are also dealing with major injuries, with the Bills playing without Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White, and the Dolphins playing without Xavien Howard, Bradley Chubb, and Jaelen Phillips. It’s hard to rely on either defense this week.
The Chargers could be in play since the Chiefs are locked into the #3 seed, which means they could rest starters. The Chiefs have also allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month, which would normally make the Chargers a solid play, but this defense has put up just 2.8 fantasy points per game over the last month, so it’s hard to be confident in them.
We faded the Eagles last week and they lost outright to the Cardinals. I’m back to fading them again, and I don’t really care what they have on the line. Plus, Tyrod Taylor looked good last week for the Giants. As I said in Week 17, he’s a cautious quarterback who doesn’t take a lot of risks, which limits the chances he’ll give to an Eagles’ defense that is averaging just 5.5 fantasy points per game over the last month. I could see the Eagles moving up if I move some other teams down based on players not playing, but I just can’t get behind this play this week.
The 49ers are ranked so low because they have the #1 seed locked up and have no reason to play their starters. However, the Rams’ only motivation is to win and be the #6 seed instead of the #7 seed, so it’s possible that both teams will rest starters. That will impact the ranking here. If the 49ers are resting starters and the Rams aren’t, I’ll leave it as is, if both teams are resting starters, I’ll move the 49ers into tier 3 just outside the top 10.
The Packers have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month. The Bears have allowed the fourth-fewest. These offenses are clicking and the defenses, which have been playing well, both have been prone to some lapses, so I don’t love playing either defense this week.
I don't feel comfortable starting any of these defenses in any format.
As I mentioned above, I will update and repost this article on Sunday morning in case there are any changes with injuries or weather reports, etc. Until then, good luck to all this week!
